Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, August 8, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
345 PM CDT SUN AUG 8 2004

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGES.

THE 12Z UPPER AIR MAPS SHOWED AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A DOWN STREAM UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND MID MS VALLEY REGION. A SHORTER WAVE LENGTH UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WAS DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

AT 19Z...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN NE...WEST-SOUTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHWEST KS. SOUTH OF THE FRONT THE ATMOSPHERE HAS RECOVERED
FROM THIS MORNINGS RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER. THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS NE. OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS MAY
DEVELOP AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MAY MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND A FEW MAY BE SEVERE GIVEN CAPE ESTIMATES
OF 1500-2500 J/KG. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. AFTER SUNSET THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
DIMINISH. THE MESO ETA MODEL SHOWS THE STORMS DISSIPATING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES OF THE FA AFTER 3Z.

ON MONDAY THE COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN NE WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE FA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE FA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN KS AND NORTHERN OK. AN INTENSE
5H SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL DIG SOUTHWARD AND
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THIS WILL SEND A
STRONG COLD FRONT...FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS ON
TUESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE FA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES...TO THE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT...AND UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED DEPENDING ON
THE SPEED OF THE SURFACE FRONT.

THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS ALL SHOW A LONGER WAVE LENGTH 5H TROUGH
AMPLIFYING OVER THE MIDWEST AND MID MS VALLEY. THIS WILL CAUSE A
COLD SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
EVEN WITH SOLAR INSOLATION HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
70 DEGREE MARK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY REACH THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE LONGER WAVE-LENGTH
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO SLOWLY RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 80S BY NEXT SUNDAY. THOUGH IF THE
LONGER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS STATIONARY ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST...HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN IN THE 70S THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THE COOL
STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE.

&&

.TOP...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN
EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR KSZ008>011-020>023-034>038

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
430 PM CDT SUN AUG 8 2004

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-091100-
ANDERSON-BROWN-CLAY-CLOUD-COFFEY-DICKINSON-DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-GEARY-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LYON-MARSHALL-MORRIS-NEMAHA-OSAGE-OTTAWA-
POTTAWATOMIE-REPUBLIC-RILEY-SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABILENE...CLAY CENTER...CONCORDIA...
EMPORIA...HIAWATHA...JUNCTION CITY...LAWRENCE...MANHATTAN...
MARYSVILLE...OTTAWA AND TOPEKA
430 PM CDT SUN AUG 8 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE SEVERE THIS EVENING WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/TOP  (ALL LOWER CASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
149 PM CDT SUN AUG 8 2004

KSZ008>011-020>023-034>038-090045-
CLAY-CLOUD-DICKINSON-GEARY-MARSHALL-MORRIS-NEMAHA-OTTAWA-
POTTAWATOMIE-REPUBLIC-RILEY-WABAUNSEE-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABILENE...CLAY CENTER...CONCORDIA...
JUNCTION CITY...MANHATTAN AND MARYSVILLE
149 PM CDT SUN AUG 8 2004

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 720 REMAINS IN EFFECT...

THE WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

  REPUBLIC              WASHINGTON            NEMAHA
  MARSHALL              CLOUD                 CLAY
  RILEY                 POTTAWATOMIE          OTTAWA
  GEARY                 WABAUNSEE             DICKINSON
  MORRIS

SOME CITIES STILL IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...

  ABILENE               JUNCTION CITY         MANHATTAN
  CLAY CENTER           CONCORDIA             MARYSVILLE