Tornado and Hail in Minnesota, August 8, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
141 PM CDT SUN AUG 8 2004

.DISCUSSION...
THE NEAR/SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE ARE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

VIGOROUS AND COLD VORTEX/UPPER LOW WITH STRONG VORTICITY CENTER WAS
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE EAST INTO NORTHERN MN TONIGHT.  POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET...80
KNOT IS FORECAST TO PLOW INTO MN THIS EVENING WHICH ALSO DEPICTED
GOOD DIFLUENCE ALOFT IN WIND FIELD.  MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUE TO
ADVECT OVER MUCH OF CWA...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR WESTERN
SECTION...WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMA WAS PUNCHING EASTWARD.
BEST CHANCE OF TSRA...ISOLD SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE
OVER SOUTHEAST MN AND WEST CNTRL WISCONSIN WITH AIRMASS WITH
MAXIMIZE DAYTIME HEATING...MOISTURE PLUME/TRANSPORT AND RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET MAXIMA. CAP HAS NEARLY ERODED. LAPS STILL
SHOWED CAP OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MN.  THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL

ANOTHER UPPER LOW ROTATING IN THE WAKE OF THIS MAIN SHORTWAVE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  THIS SYSTEM WILL RE-ENFORCE AND BRING ANORTHER
SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. TREND MAX
TEMPS DOWN FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

LONGER TERM...THU THROUGH SUN
KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LAST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE HUDSON BAY LOW. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE QUITE AS
UNSTABLE AS EARLIER DEPICTED SO LEFT MENTION OF THUNDER OUT FOR
NOW.  THE LAST THREE RUNS OF THE GFS MODEL SEEM FAIRLY CONSISTENT
FROM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A 500 MB RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL
WEST OF THE AREA AND THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  ENSEMBLE POPS NEGLIGIBLE
FOR THE LATER WORK DAYS...BUT BEGIN TO INCR SLIGHTLY OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND GFS ENSEMBLES HINTING AT POSS S/W SAT AND SUN.
QUESTION AS TO EXTEND OF MOISTURE...BUT WL ADD SML POPS IN MAINLY
FOR SAT NGT INTO SUN.  UPR FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS MORE TO THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WITH ACCOMPANY SLOW WARMING TREND TWD LTR PDS.

&&

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
455 AM CDT SUN AUG 8 2004

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-091100-
ANOKA-BARRON-BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-
DOUGLAS-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-
KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-
MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-POPE-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-
RENVILLE-RICE-RUSK-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-ST CROIX-STEARNS-STEELE-
STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE-
455 AM CDT SUN AUG 8 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA FROM THE DAKOTAS
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
REACH WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.