Hail in Montana, August 4, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MONTANA
300 PM MDT WED AUG 4 2004

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORT WAVES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
TRIGGER CONVECTION TONIGHT OVER MY CWA. FIRST WAVE HAS LARGELY
MOVED THROUGH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA AND HAS BEEN TRIGGERING
THUNDERSTORMS IN IDAHO AND WYOMING AS IT MOVES EAST. ANOTHER WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER OREGON WILL ROTATE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WILL BE
MORE THE FOCUS FOR MY AREA. SPC HAS MOST OF CWA IN SLIGHT RISK SO
HAVE SEVERE WORDING IN ALL ZONES.  WILL SEE A REPEAT OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING AGAIN AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES AND ROTATES THROUGH REGION...WITH RISK FOR SEVERE ONCE
AGAIN. AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS MORE LOBES OF ENERGY WILL SEE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THOMSON

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ONLY CHANGES WERE TO DROP TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND. EACH RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW LOWER THICKNESS VALUES
AND TEMPERATURES AT 850 AND 700MB LEVELS. FEEL MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE
TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL TROF WHICH GIVES TIMING DIFFERENCES TO
DIRECTION AND SPEED OF WINDS. HAVE BASICALLY LEFT GOING FORECAST AS
IS WITH WINDS AND PRECIPITATION. CAMP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF BB 057/088 057/084 053 11323
    BUUUU 078/049 075/051 081/054 082/054 085 23200000000
CTB BB 054/083 053/079 051 11323
    BUUUU 075/047 072/049 078/052 081/052 081 23400000000
HLN BB 059/087 058/087 056 11333
    BUUUU 083/052 080/054 082/057 085/057 088 232-0000000
BZN BB 056/087 055/087 053 11223
    BUUUU 080/049 076/051 080/054 083/054 085 22100000000
WEY BB 048/076 043/075 044 11222
    BUUUU 065/043 073/041 066/047 069/047 071 --000000000
DLN BB 055/085 052/082 052 11323
    BUUUU 080/048 076/050 078/053 081/053 085 22100000000
HVR BB 056/089 059/087 053 11302
    BUUUU 076/049 079/051 080/054 084/054 088 23400000000
LWT UB 054/088 053/084 051 11323
    BUUUU 076/047 072/049 079/052 082/052 080 22200000000

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
530 AM MDT WED AUG 4 2004

MTZ008>015-044>055-051105-
BEAVERHEAD-NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN
GLACIER-HILL-CASCADE-CHOUTEAU-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND
CLARK-MADISON-TOOLE-LIBERTY-EASTERN PONDERA-BLAINE-SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN TETON-JUDITH
BASIN-FERGUS-JEFFERSON-BROADWATER-MEAGHER-GALLATIN-
530 AM MDT WED AUG 4 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST TONIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND HAIL...MAINLY
OVER FERGUS...HILL AND BLAINE COUNTIES THIS EVENING.

NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES CURRENTLY IN EFFECT

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
535 PM MDT WED AUG 04 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0524 PM     HAIL             3 N DILLON              45.26N 112.63W
08/04/2004  0.25 INCH        BEAVERHEAD         MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            0.70 IN 20 MIN.

0525 PM     HAIL             DILLON                  45.22N 112.63W
08/04/2004  0.50 INCH        BEAVERHEAD         MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

0530 PM     HAIL             2 N DILLON              45.24N 112.63W
08/04/2004  0.50 INCH        BEAVERHEAD         MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BRUSDA