1 flood, as filed by the National Weather Service.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 18, 2:05 PM CST, 3 hours 55 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 305 PM CDT SAT SEP 18 2004 .DISCUSSION... SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN GROWING ACROSS THE CONUS. THE EAST PACIFIC TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED OVER THE COASTLINE OF THE WEST COAST...WHILE A MIDWEST ANTICYCLONE GAINS STRENGTH IN RESPONSE. THE LAST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...THAT DOMINATED THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOUR ACROSS THE CWA...CONTINUED TO FALL APART ACROSS NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. WHAT ACTIVITY WAS LEFT APPEARED TO BE FUELING ITSELF WITH LEFT OVER ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. SOME OF THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT PULSE SEVERE MAY BE A CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIE OUT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS MODELS DEPICT A WEDGE OF DRY AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO MISSOURI. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL ONCE AGAIN SETUP ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...BUT THE NOSE LOOKS TO FOCUS ACTIVITY MORE TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CAP. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE EAST EDGE OF THE CWA THROUGH 03Z AS THE BACK SIDE OF THE MCV...LEFT OVER FROM THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY...EXITS TO OUR EAST. FOR SUNDAY IT WILL BE DRY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING ABOVE NORMAL. WARMER AIR IS POISED JUST TO OUR WEST SO THAT A SOUTHWEST 850MB WIND WILL SPREAD +20 C TEMPS ACROSS EAST KANSAS AND WEST MISSOURI. HOWEVER...I HAVE UNDER CUT GUIDANCE NUMBERS BY A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO AN EXPECTED SOUTHEAST SURFACE WIND...WHICH WILL BE SOURCING ITS AIR FROM A COOLER LOCATION. FOR NEXT WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY FALL AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH TRAVERSES THE NATION. THE GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET HAVE LEANED TOWARDS A SLOWER SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION...WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH FASTER. A CONSENSUS FORECAST WITH THE MAJORITY LOOKS LIKE THE WAY TO GO. THIS WOULD KEEP THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH. TO THIS END I HAVE PUSHED BACK THUNDERSTORM POPS TO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. CUTTER && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 316 AM SAT... ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS CWA TONIGHT IS IN AREA OF THETA/E ADVECTION...ALONG WITH NOSE OF LLVL JET. THE ETA HAS THIS AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING EAST THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WHICH ALIGNS WELL WITH THE MESOSCALE FEATURES. THERE HAS BEEN SOME TRAINING EFFECT...SO WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WILL CONTINUE PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH MID MORNING FOR MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA. THE GFS GENERATES A VORT IN CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...WHICH AFFECTS THE AREA THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. SEEING THIS FEATURE MAKES ONE QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT WE MAY NEED TO HOLD ON TO POPS A LITTLE BIT LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FEEL THAT AS THE JET REFOCUSES...WE SHOULD DRY OUT. WILL GO RIGHT AROUND FWC GUIDANCE TODAY. UNLIKE YESTERDAY...WE ARE NOT WATCHING MORE CONVECTION IN KS OR NEBRASKA...SO AS PRECIP ENDS...CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP ENOUGH FOR A DECENT RISE THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDING AROUND IT TONIGHT. HOWEVER THE LLVL JET IS FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST. THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FEATURE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS IS NOT A WARMING WIND FOR US...SO HAVE CONTINUED PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND OF GOING WITH THE COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS. NEXT WEATHER FEATURE IS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST... TIMING IS UNCERTAIN WHEN IT WILL COME THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH AIMS FOR THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THAT MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED BACK. LVQ 904 PM... REVISING FORECASTS TO REFLECT ONGOING CONVECTION AND EXPECTED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BECOME MORE FOCUSED INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST KANSAS TONIGHT. ALREADY SEEING AC FIELD DEVELOPING IN THAT AREA ON SATELLITE...SO MAY SEE INITIATION IN THOSE AREAS BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD FURTHER EAST AS THETA E ADVECTION MOVES FROM NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH STORMS WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED WHICH MAY PREVENT STRONGER WINDS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE...EXPECTED LIFT WOULD INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF LARGER HAIL. ALREADY UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BASED ON THE 01Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. PC && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. WFO EAX
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 140 PM CDT SAT SEP 18 2004 KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040- 043>046-053-054-191100- THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BUTLER TO HIGGINSVILLE TO MOBERLY. THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OTHERWISE...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BUT MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA ON THURSDAY. && THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT (LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/EAX OR HTTP://WEATHER.GOV. DB
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The Big Creek near Blairstown crested at 24.70 feet, or 4.70 feet above flood stage.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2004Every state in 2004This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, September 2004
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5424699.