1 flood, as filed by the National Weather Service.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 1, 2:35 PM CST, 3 hours 25 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 235 PM CST MON NOV 1 2004 .DISCUSSION... INTERESTING FORECAST FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS ACROSS THE REGION. IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT. RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LOOSELY ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS FROM NEAR PRINCETON...SOUTH TO THE EASTERN METRO THEN WEST INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. SHOULD SEE THESE SHOWERS WANE SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AS STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW PICKS UP ACROSS THE AREA. WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PRECLUDES CONCERNS ABOUT FOG...BUT TIME SECTIONS FROM THE 12Z ETA/GFS INDICATE A VERY SATURATED AIRMASS. LOOKS LIKE A NIGHT CHARACTERIZED BY DECENT VISIBILITIES BUT IFR CLOUD DECKS. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS (30%) THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN TAPER THINGS OFF BY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DECENTLY TONIGHT IN A DECENT CAA REGIME DESPITE THE LOW CLOUDS. I DID BUMP LOWS AT LEAST A CATEGORY UP FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...MORE IN LINE WITH THE FWC/MET GUIDANCE. TUESDAY OFFERS A QUIET DAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. STILL DO EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER...AND BORDERLINE BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. OUR NEXT BIG CHALLENGE COMES WITH THE NEXT VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM...SLATED TO ARRIVE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. 18Z ETA RUN APPEARS TO BE TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS IN TERMS OF ITS HANDLING OF THE STRONGEST LIFT AND SURFACE FEATURES. GIVEN MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED ON THE 300K SURFACE...AND VERY IMPRESSIVE OMEGA FIELDS OFF THE 12Z GFS/18Z ETA...DO EXPECT A DECENT RAIN SHIELD TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEDNESDAY. THE AREAS LIKELY AFFECTED BY THIS RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70...AND EAST OF STATE LINE TOWARDS CENTRAL MISSOURI. I INTRODUCED LOW POPS EARLIER THIS MORNING FOR THIS AREA...AND WILL BUMP EVEN HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON. SYSTEM IS QUITE VIGOROUS /NOTE 8 TO 15 MBS-1 OMEGA LIFT/ AND WITH COLD POOL ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...MAY ALSO SEE EMBEDDED CONVECTION WITHIN A LARGER RAIN SHIELD. EARLIER CONCERNS ABOUT ANY SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN WERE TIED TO THE OUTLIER 12Z ETA RUN...AND AT THE MOMENT HAVE NO CONCERNS ABOUT THIS MATERIALIZING GIVEN LOW LEVEL THERMO STRUCTURE. RAIN SHOULD END WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS A COLD FRONT WILL SCOUR THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BY THURSDAY. HUDSON A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONUS NEXT WEEK. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM A LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRONG RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH FORMS OVER THE EAST. THIS PATTERN TRANSLATES TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND A DRY FORECAST GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES LOOK TO REINFORCE THE EASTERN TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK/WEEKEND...DRAWING COOLER TEMPERATURES SOUTHWARD. HAVE FORECAST TEMPERATURES ON THE DOWNWARD TREND SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. STOFLET && .PREV DISCUSSION... 1005 AM CST... RADAR TRENDS AND 12Z ETA RUN BOTH POINT TO A MINIMUM OF RAINFALL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. DEFORMATION BAND SETTING UP TO THE NORTHWEST OF KANSAS CITY AT THE MOMENT...AND BEST DYNAMICS HELPING TO FOCUS HEAVIER RAINFALL THREAT FROM THE OZARKS NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN MISSOURI. WITH THIS SCENARIO IN MIND...HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH FOR WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. FLOODING PROBLEMS CONTINUE IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT CONCERNS FOR AGGRAVATING THE FLOOD THREAT. HAVE ADJUSTED GOING FORECAST TO REFLECT TRENDS IN BETWEEN THE DEFORMATION BAND AND THE HEAVIER RAIN TO THE SOUTH...LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG. LOCAL VISIBILITIES HAVE CRASHED TO A MILE OR LESS FROM THE KC METRO NORTHEAST TO CARROLLTON. WILL WATCH THIS CLOSELY FOR TRENDS AND A POTENTIAL DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF IT PERSISTS. OTHERWISE...KEPT POPS AT 100 PERCENT AREA WIDE...WITH NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. 12Z MODEL RUNS LOOKING VERY INTERESTING FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI. PATTERN LOOKS VERY CONDUSIVE TO A DYNAMIC COOLING EVENT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE EJECTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THICKNESSES ARE TOO HIGH FOR SNOW PER SE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ONLY A SMIDGE ABOVE ZERO BY 00Z THURSDAY. WILL LOOK INTO THIS CLOSELY TO SEE WHETHER A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY DEVELOP FROM ST JOSEPH NORTHWARD LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MORE ON THIS LATER TODAY. HUDSON 235 AM CST... EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS ROCKIES/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF OVER FOUR CORNERS REGION. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LARGE PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MO/MIDDLE MS VALLEY. LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE COMBINED WITH WEAK PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS REGION CONTINUE TO RESULT IN BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN THIRD OF CWA...WHILE LIGHTER PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS WESTERN TWO THIRDS. EXPECT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AXIS TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TODAY AS UPPER LOW DIGS INTO WEST TX BY 00Z...ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL RETAIN GOING FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA...AS RAINFALL ESTIMATES INDICATE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CWA...AND MAY SEE IN EXCESS OF ANOTHER INCH OR SO THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE RAIN TAPERS OFF LATE TODAY. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. MODELS HAVE COME TO CONSENSUS WITH EVOLUTION OF FOUR CORNERS LOW...ALBEIT THIS SOLUTION DIFFERS FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. MODELS NOW AGREE ON SLOWING SYSTEM CONSIDERABLY AND MAINTAINING CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS IT EJECTS ACROSS REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITHIN NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF LOW PROGGED TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN CWA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT HAVE INSERTED POPS INTO THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER HAVE LEFT IN CHANCE CATEGORY GIVEN CONSIDERABLE CHANCE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. SEAMAN && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. WFO EAX
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 100 PM CST MON NOV 1 2004 KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040- 043>046-053-054-021200- THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT LINGERING FLOODING CONCERNS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE A NUMBER OF AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEY WILL NOT PRODUCE A SIGNFICANT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN BACK INTO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI ON WEDNESDAY. AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE...BUT AT THE MOMENT THIS RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL FLOODING. IF THE STORM SYSTEM DEEPENS RAPIDLY...AS SOME OF THE COMPUTER FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI WEDNESDAY EVENING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. && THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT (LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/EAX OR HTTP://WEATHER.GOV. HUDSON
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The Petite Saline Creek near Boonville crested at 21.60 feet, or 5.60 feet above flood stage. The Lamine River near Otterville crested at 19.57 feet, or 4.57 feet above flood stage.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2004Every state in 2004This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, November 2004
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5428065.