Hail in Missouri, May 23, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
248 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE LOW (999MB) CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH A TROUGH/WEAK DRYLINE STRETCHING SOUTHWEST
FROM THE LOW THROUGH UIN TO NEAR PPF AS OF 19Z. ACROSS OUR CWA WINDS
HAVE ALREADY VEERED TO AROUND 220-230 AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WHICH IS
MINIMIZING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SPECIAL LOCAL
18Z SOUNDING CONTINUED TO SHOW A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WITH
MLCINH WELL IN EXCESS OF NEARLY 200 J/KG.

STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND IN ALL LIKELIHOOD WEAKER CINH HAS
ALLOWED FOR CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM
CENTRAL MISSOURI NORTHWARD INTO NE MO...HOWEVER THUS FAR UPDRAFTS
HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES (PROBABLY DUE IN PART TO
THE RELATIVELY WEAK LL CONV). A BIT OF CLEARING AHEAD OF THE LINE
MAY ALLOW FOR A MORE DESTABILIZATION OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN MOST
COUNTIES...SO IT ISNT OUT THE QUESTION THAT A COUPLE OF THE STORMS
MAY YET BECOME MORE ORGANIZED BEFORE THE AFTERNOON IS OVER.

IF UPDRAFTS DO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THEN THE STRONG (ALBEIT
UNIDIRECTIONAL) SHEAR COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WOULD BE
ENOUGH OR ONE OR TWO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. PRIMARY THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE VERY
LOW THIS FAR SOUTH WITH WINDS ALREADY SO BACKED.

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

IZZI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
313 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-241100-
BARRY-BARTON-BENTON-BOURBON-CAMDEN-CEDAR-CHEROKEE-CHRISTIAN-CRAWFORD-
DADE-DALLAS-DENT-DOUGLAS-GREENE-HICKORY-HOWELL-JASPER-LACLEDE-
LAWRENCE-MARIES-MCDONALD-MILLER-MORGAN-NEWTON-OREGON-OZARK-PHELPS-
POLK-PULASKI-SHANNON-ST. CLAIR-STONE-TANEY-TEXAS-VERNON-WEBSTER-
WRIGHT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AVA...BOLIVAR...BRANSON...CAMDENTON...
FORT LEONARD WOOD...FORT SCOTT...HOUSTON...JOPLIN...LEBANON...
MONETT...MOUNT VERNON...NEOSHO...NEVADA...OSAGE BEACH...OZARK...
PITTSBURG...ROLLA...SPRINGFIELD...STOCKTON AND WEST PLAINS.
313 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  FLOODING.

  AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME MAY PRODUCE:
    SMALL HAIL
    HEAVY RAIN AND
    CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  ISOLATED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY
  RAINFALL SUNDAY EVENING.

  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
  SOUTHWEST MISSOURI SOUTHWEST OF A PITTSBURG KANSAS TO BRANSON
  MISSOURI LINE.

  DISCUSSION:

  SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
  HOURS...HOWEVER THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS GREATLY
  DIMINISHED.

  SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT
  RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

  LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OUT IN THE PLAINS ON
  MONDAY AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP THROUGH
  THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
  REGIONS.  A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA MONDAY
  NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WILL STALL OUT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
  NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
  ACROSS THE OZARKS WILL BE FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
  SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND AND
  LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT. SPOTTERS MAY BE
  NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS THE FRONT MOVES
  INTO THE AREA.

LINDENBERG/IZZI