Flooding in Missouri, March 5 to 7, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
250 AM CST FFI MAR 5 2004

DISCUSSION

STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ALONG IOWA AND MISSOURI BORDER MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEAST. VERY
NARROW ZONE OF STRONG WINDS WAS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE
CONSIDERED AN WIND ADVISORY BUT STRONG WINDS WAS IN A NARROW ZONE
JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH. STRONG WINDS WERE IN EXTREME THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND WILL LIKELY EXIT THE CWA WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR. WILL STILL LIKELY SEE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT WITH THE SURFACE LOW QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEAST...WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...WILL NOT CARRY ANY PRECIPITATION THREAT THIS MORNING AS
UPPER LOW LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEAST. NEXT CONCERN IS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT THE GFS/MESOETA MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
GFS/MESOETA INDICATES WEAK 700-300 QVECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. BUT WITH MOISTURE LIMITED AND ISENTROPIC
DOWNGLIDE...PRECIPITATION THREAT MARGINA. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SPRINKLES...BUT WILL NOT MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW RETURNS
IN RESPONSE TO NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAT DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE...FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN DROPPED.

DB

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

415PM...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE EVIDENT ON AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
RESULTANT STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO LIFT MOISTURE OVER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
TODAY...RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
COUPLED JET STRUCTURE HAS ALSO OFFERED ADDITIONAL SUPPORT. AS THE
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH...THE IMMEDIATE THREAT WILL CHANGE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. DRY SLOT CONTINUES
TO WORK NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI...ALLOWING FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW FAR NORTH THE DRY SLOT WILL WORK. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THAT
SOUTHERN TIER OF ZONES MAY SEE SUFFICIENT CLEARING. THIS INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE MODERATE SHEAR IN VICINITY OF THE DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW...AND CONTRIBUTE TO A THREAT FOR TORNADOES IN THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. LARGE HAIL IS NOT A BIG
CONCERN...DUE TO FAIRLY WARM 500MB TEMPS. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE WARM SECTOR LIFTS NORTH.

SCHMIT

FAST MOVING IMPULSE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA. SPRINKLES POSSIBLE
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG COLD FRONT OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN MO BUT NOT
READY TO INTRODUCE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. ANOTHER FAST MOVING
IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDSHIFT THE
MAIN EFFECT. UPCOMING WORK WEEK LOOKS DRY AND WILL HELP REGION DRY
OUT FROM TODAYS HEAVY RAINS.

BY MID WEEK UPPER RIDGE PROGGED TO BUILD EAST FROM THE ROCKIES...
RESULTING IN GOOD LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. HAVE BUMPED UP
TEMPERATURES AND EVEN THEN MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE IF WARMING IS AS
STRONG AS GFS IS ADVERTISING.

MJ

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.

MO...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
100 PM CST THU MAR 4 2004

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-051200-

...HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

HEAVY RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BEGIN SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR TO MOVE NORTH INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM AND ADVANCING COLD FRONT COMBINE WITH THIS UNSTABLE AIR.
THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS IS DAMAGING
WINDS...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CENTERVILLE KANSAS TO CLINTON
MISSOURI LINE THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THOUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
CENTERVILLE KANSAS TO CLINTON MISSOURI THIS EVENING.

&&

LS