Hail in Missouri, July 8, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
326 PM CDT THU JUL 8 2004

.DISCUSSION (MESOSCALE UPDATE)...

LATEST KSGF 88D IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTIVE GUST FRONT HAS
SURGED WELL OUT AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE AND STORM CLUSTERS PRESENTLY
OVER WESTERN MISSOURI. SMALL HAIL WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE LEAD
LINE CELLS...HOWEVER THE SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS NOT BEING INGESTED INTO ELEVATED
CONVECTION.

ADDITIONALLY...NUMEROUS REPORTS OF FUNNELS...LOW HANGING CLOUDS...
WALL CLOUDS AND THE LIKE HAVE BEEN RECEIVED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE. HORIZONTAL ROTATION...IN THE FORM OF A SHELF CLOUD...MAY
ACCOMPANY THE LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN DADE
COUNTY...SOUTHWEST TOWARD NEWTON AND MCDONALD COUNTIES. THE
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO TORNADOES...AND PERSONS ARE
LIKELY SEEING SHELF CLOUDS AND/OR SCUD ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP
TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ELEVATED AND REMOVED FROM BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS.

UNLESS NEW CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF SURGING GUST FRONT...DO
NOT ANTICIPATING ISSUING ADDITIONAL WARNINGS AT THIS TIME...AND WILL
HANDLE SMALL HAIL THREAT WITH NOWCASTS.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.PREVIOUS PUBLIC DISCUSSION...

WILL KEEP DISCUSSION BRIEF AS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON...AS OUTFLOW FROM EAST KANSAS
SPREADS EASTWARD INTO THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA. 18Z SOUNDING FROM KSGF SHOWED CAPES OVER 4000 J/KG...LIS OF -9
AND MAX VERTICAL VELOCITIES NEAR 80 M/S. HAVE BEEN RECEIVING A FEW
REPORTS OF HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE AND ALSO RECEIVED REPORT OF WIND
GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH AT THE JOPLIN ASOS.

EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE ON EASTWARD TRACK INTO THE REST OF
SOUTHWEST MO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH SOME
ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF MAIN COMPLEX OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MO.

LATER TONIGHT THINK FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD ALONG WARM
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MO AS LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. WILL
SHIFT HIGHEST POPS OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES AFTER 06Z.

FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AWAY FROM OUR AREA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX VALUES ESPECIALLY NEAR KANSAS BORDER...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. WILL CARRY SOME ISOLATED
AFTERNOON POPS IN THE GRIDS BUT EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY.

BUMPED UP RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
RETROGRADES WESTWARD AND NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION.

&&
.AVIATION...

LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM GREENVILLE TO JOPLIN WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WILL CONTINUE
PREDOMINANT THUNDER AT JOPLIN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL
STORMS DEVELOPING BEHIND MAIN LINE...HAVE TEMPO THUNDER AT KSGF
WITHIN THE HOUR.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

TERRY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT THU JUL 8 2004

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-091100-
BARRY-BARTON-BENTON-BOURBON-CAMDEN-CEDAR-CHEROKEE-CHRISTIAN-CRAWFORD-
DADE-DALLAS-DENT-DOUGLAS-GREENE-HICKORY-HOWELL-JASPER-LACLEDE-
LAWRENCE-MARIES-MCDONALD-MILLER-MORGAN-NEWTON-OREGON-OZARK-PHELPS-
POLK-PULASKI-SHANNON-ST. CLAIR-STONE-TANEY-TEXAS-VERNON-WEBSTER-
WRIGHT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AVA...BOLIVAR...BRANSON...CAMDENTON...
FORT LEONARD WOOD...FORT SCOTT...HOUSTON...JOPLIN...LEBANON...
MONETT...MOUNT VERNON...NEOSHO...NEVADA...OSAGE BEACH...OZARK...
PITTSBURG...ROLLA...SPRINGFIELD...STOCKTON AND WEST PLAINS.
100 PM CDT THU JUL 8 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
  AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE
  HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS IN
  EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS
  SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...ESPECIALLY WEST OF A
  NEVADA TO WEST PLAINS LINE.

  DISCUSSION:

  ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WAS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND
  EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
  10 TO 20 MPH WERE SPREADING A DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS BACK INTO THE
  REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF THE OZARKS AND
  SOUTHEAST KANSAS TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE.

  A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN KANSAS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
  SOUTHEAST INTO FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA EARLY
  THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ALSO POSSIBLE OVER
  SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

  WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER FROM
  OCCURRING...HOWEVER THE EXTREME INSTABILITY EXPECTED WILL ALLOW A
  FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS
  GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PRESENT. DUE TO SLOW STORM
  MOVEMENT...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COULD QUICKLY OCCUR...LEADING TO
  FLASH FLOODING IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

  THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
  LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
  LAST IN A SERIES OF OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES DEVELOPS OVER
  NEBRASKA AND MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

  ANY ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY MIDDAY
  FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF VERY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER ACROSS
  THE OZARKS REGION. ISOLATED BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
  EACH DAY JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...HOWEVER THE GREATER CONCERN INTO
  WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
  READINGS THAT COULD APPROACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES ON SEVERAL DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
  AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLE AGAIN
  LATE TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER
WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF

BOOKBINDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
157 PM CDT THU JUL 08 2004

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     HAIL             LIBERAL                 37.57N 94.53W
07/08/2004  0.88 INCH        BARTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

AL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
254 PM CDT THU JUL 08 2004

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0252 PM     HAIL             HUMANSVILLE             37.80N 93.58W
07/08/2004  0.75 INCH        POLK               MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

AL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
311 PM CDT THU JUL 08 2004

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N RACINE              36.93N 94.53W
07/08/2004                   NEWTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN.

AL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
331 PM CDT THU JUL 08 2004

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0323 PM     HAIL             STOTTS CITY             37.10N 93.97W
07/08/2004  0.88 INCH        LAWRENCE           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT.

JLT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT - SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
351 PM CDT THU JUL 8 2004

KSZ101-MOZ068-077-078-088-089-093-090000-
BARTON-CEDAR-CHEROKEE-DADE-HICKORY-JASPER-NEWTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOPLIN...NEOSHO AND STOCKTON.
351 PM CDT THU JUL 8 2004

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 591 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN MISSOURI:

BARTON...CEDAR...DADE...HICKORY...JASPER AND NEWTON.

IN KANSAS:

CHEROKEE.

MOZ079-090-094-095-101>103-090000-
BARRY-CHRISTIAN-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MCDONALD-POLK-STONE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOLIVAR...MONETT...MOUNT VERNON...
OZARK AND SPRINGFIELD.
351 PM CDT THU JUL 8 2004

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 591 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM
CDT THURSDAY EVENING...FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...  IN MISSOURI:
BARRY...CHRISTIAN...GREENE...LAWRENCE...MCDONALD...POLK AND STONE.
SOME CITIES IN THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDE BOLIVAR...
MONETT...MOUNT VERNON...OZARK AND SPRINGFIELD.

BOOKBINDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
419 PM CDT THU JUL 08 2004

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     HAIL             LIBERAL                 37.57N 94.53W
07/08/2004  0.88 INCH        BARTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0252 PM     HAIL             HUMANSVILLE             37.80N 93.58W
07/08/2004  0.75 INCH        POLK               MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0255 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N RACINE              36.93N 94.53W
07/08/2004                   NEWTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN.

0323 PM     HAIL             STOTTS CITY             37.10N 93.97W
07/08/2004  0.88 INCH        LAWRENCE           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT.

JLT