Hail in Minnesota, June 15, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
150 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS
HAVE POOLED INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MN.  DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTED AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SHRA AND ISOLD TRSA OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
MN.  PRES CONDS DEF LOWER TO 20-30 MB OVR CENTRAL MN INTO WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY THIS EVENING.  THUS...PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
EXPAND FURTHER INTO OUR CWA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.  THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LIES IN AND
NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.  THE FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST MN BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING.  EXPECT PRECIP
TO LINGER OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE REST OF CWA.

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT...WILL PROVIDE
COUPLE OF DRY DAYS UP TO THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONGER TERM...00Z GFS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TREND OF DEVELOPING 50H
HUDSON BAY LOW LATE IN PERIOD.  HOWEVER...FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SPREADS
INDICATED.  ECMWF TRENDS TO MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.  WILL FOLLOW A
LESS AMPLIFIED GFS...CLOSE TO THE GFS MEAN FLOW PATTERN.  NEW 12Z
GFS(AS WELL AS 00Z AND 06Z GFS) CONTINUES TO SPREAD GOOD CHANCE POPS
OVER THE CWA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  PREVIOUS DGEX SHOWED
THIS TREND AS WELL. AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.  AFTER
THAT...A QUESTION HOW FAR SOUTH TO DRAG SUNDAY COLD FRONT.  WILL
FOLLOW DGEX OUTLINE QPF PATTERN.  SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY NORTHEAST
HALF OF CWA...SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. STILL LOOKS
RATHER COOL FOR PERIOD.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.

&&

NOTE...THE AWIPS IDENTIFIER FOR THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION ISSUED
BY THE NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS BEEN CHANGED FROM AFDMSP TO
AFDMPX EFFECTIVE THIS MORNING.  THE WMO HEADER FOR THIS PRODUCT WILL
REMAIN FXUS63 KMPX.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
504 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-161005-
ANOKA-BARRON-BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-
DOUGLAS-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-
KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-
MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-POPE-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-
RENVILLE-RICE-RUSK-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-ST CROIX-STEARNS-STEELE-
STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE-
504 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN WESTERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.  THE MAIN THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN WILL
BE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

BAP