1 flood, as filed by the National Weather Service.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Detroit, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 2, 8:15 PM EST, 1 hour 45 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 815 PM EST TUE MAR 2 2004 .UPDATE... SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT A 10 DEGREE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER SE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING, ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS OTHERWISE WEAK IN THE PRESSURE FIELD. THIS BOUNDARY IS STARTING TO DO MORE THAN JUST GENERATE CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA AS RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS SHOW SOME DRIZZLE OVER WESTERN LOWER. EXPECT THIS TO DEVELOP INTO SE MICHIGAN AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AT THAT POINT, WITH THE LOSS OF CONVERGENCE, EXPECT FOG TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. FORECAST UPDATE WILL ADD AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG, AND WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO THICK CLOUDS AND SURFACE DEWPOINT IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40. && BT .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 354 PM TODAY 12Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...BETWEEN SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOWER LAKES AND LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. A FEW VORT CENTERS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...SO NOT MUCH OF A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW NOW INTO QUEBEC...WITH COLD FRONT BACK ACROSS THE STRAITS TO THE MI/WI BORDER. OTHERWISE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH RIDGE NOSING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS ACROSS OF MUCH OF THE REGION /SOME SUN IN THE SOUTH/ BUT WITH RADAR REMAINING CLEAR OF ECHOES. FIRST QUESTION WITH THIS PACKAGE IS PRECIP CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER MAIN STORY STILL REVOLVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN LOW...AS IT LIFTS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK UPPER ENERGY. SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN LOSES DEFINITION WITHOUT STRONG UPPER SUPPORT AS HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD. UPSTREAM RADARS ONLY SHOW SOME ECHOES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/MN ARROWHEAD. NOT MUCH IS HAPPENING PRECIP-WISE CLOSER TO THE CWA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW-LEVELS CONTINUING TO REMAIN SATURATED...WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS EVEN LIFTING A BIT DURING THE EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES QUICKLY DROP OFF WITH SUNSET. THERE IS SOMEWHAT OF AN INCREASE IN 850-500MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE AS SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LOSE DEFINITION. OVERALL WILL KEEP TONIGHT DRY BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY. /FAR SOUTHEAST LOWER IS ALMOST PARTLY SUNNY...BUT BETTER MOISTURE AND CLOUDS UPSTREAM ARE ALREADY SPREADING/FILLING SOUTHEAST./ WIDESPREAD CLOUDS OBSERVED UPSTREAM TODAY...BUT WITH A BREAK OF CLEARING MIXING OUT ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA. ETA 1000-850MB RH JUST HINTS AT A SOMEWHAT DRIER AREA ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA/DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS DRIER AREA SPREADS EAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE...REACHING LAKE MICHIGAN BY 00Z THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS QUESTIONABLE AS TO WHETHER WE WILL REMAIN CLOUDY OR MIX OUT TO SOME SUN. HOWEVER BY THE AFTERNOON THERE IS MORE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...AND WILL OPT TO LEAVE THE DAY BARELY MOSTLY CLOUDY. NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DROPS OUT OF CANADA...WITH A WEAK SURFACE WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH PLACEMENT AND TIMING...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION AMOUNT. ETA OFFERS A MUCH DRIER SOLUTION THAN GFS OR NGM /MOS AT DTW WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ETA 26 AND NGM 98/. ETA DEVELOPS MORE/HEAVIER PRECIP ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH OF THE REGION...WHEREAS THE NGM TRIES TO MERGE THIS OVER THE CWA WITH THE NORTHERN WAVE. GFS IS MORE OF A SPLIT SOLUTION...SLOWER TO DEVELOP PRECIP SOUTH OF THE STATE AND MORE WIDESPREAD WITH PRECIP TO THE NORTH. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH CHANCE POPS THINKING MOISTURE WILL BE MORE LIMITED ALONG THE NORTHERN COLD FRONT. PRECIP TYPE MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN...AT LEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE COLDER AIR WILL HOLD ON LONGER. WILL KEEP PRECIP MIXED ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...AND JUST RAIN ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WITH A DECENT NORTHEASTERLY WIND DEVELOPING OFF LAKE HURON. AT THE SAME TIME ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW EJECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS....WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS. ALSO GOOD FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS AS WARM FRONT STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE. THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION...WITH FOR THE MOST PART SIMILAR TRACKS BETWEEN THE ETA/GFS. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE SMALL SCALE THOUGH...WITH GFS A BIT FASTER/FARTHER NORTH THAN THE ETA. BOTH SHOW A DECENT NEGATIVE TILT TO THE SHORTWAVE. FGEN/ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS INTO THE STATE. VERY STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMBING OVER 1 INCH /CLIMO IS 0.38 AT DTX/. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE DEFINITE RAIN DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH LOOKS GOOD FOR THIS OVERRUNNING SCENARIO. IN ADDITION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET...ELEVATED INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SHOWALTER INDICES FALLING NEAR 0C ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY /DURING THE MORNING FARTHER NORTH/. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...850MB JET OF +70KTS PER THE ETA/+60KTS PER THE GFS NOSES INTO THE STATE FRIDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS/HODOGRAPHS SHOW ONLY A SLIGHT DIRECTIONAL TURNING IN THE LOW LEVELS /FOLLOWING THE SURFACE WARM FRONT/ WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW OFF THE SURFACE. ALSO AS MENTIONED ABOVE... ETA/GFS BOTH INDICATE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM /ETA A BIT MORE UNSTABLE THAN GFS/. FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT FRIDAY MORNING...WE COULD SEE A DRY SLOT DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. BOTH ETA/GFS DO HOLD ON TO A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THOUGH...WHICH MAY KEEP US MOSTLY CLOUDY STILL. HOWEVER IF WE DO SEE SOME SUN TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY JUMP ANOTHER 10 DEGREES WITH PLENTY OF WIND AVAILABLE TO MIX DOWN. AND WITH THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. WILL INCREASE WORDING IN THE HWO TO MENTION POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR NOW. THIS COULD BE ADJUSTED NORTH OF SOUTH AS FUTURE RUNS REFINE THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. FOR THE EXTENDED...STILL A RATHER UNSETTLED PERIOD AS WE TRY TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF AN AMPLIFIED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES/SURFACE SYSTEMS ARE POISED TO DROP THROUGH SOME PORTION OF THE REGION...AND AS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SMALLER SCALE FEATURES IN A PATTERN TRANSITION THERE IS A WIDE SPREAD BETWEEN MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...THEN ADD A CHANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. WE SHOULD STILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP AS ALL SNOW. THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PRECIP-FREE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...AND CURRENT INDICATIONS FAVOR SUNDAY NIGHT BEING DRY. NEXT DEEPER SYSTEM THEN MOVES THROUGH MONDAY/TUESDAY. IN ADDITION TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT...ALSO DIFFERENCES AS FAR AS THERMAL FIELDS. GFS/ECMWF ARE SIMILAR BUT THE ETA-XX IS MUCH COLDER. WILL CONTINUE TO SHY AWAY FROM THE ETA-XX SOLUTION...AS IT DID NOT SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SPEED/TRACK OF THE FRIDAY SYSTEM /AN OUTLIER BEING TOO FAST AND EAST COMPARED TO OTHER 00Z-12Z MODELS/...A RESULT THAT AFFECTS TIMING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && BRAVENDER EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX (ALL LOWER CASE)
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 430 PM EST TUE MAR 2 2004 MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-031200- BAY-GENESEE-HURON-LAPEER-MIDLAND-SAGINAW-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE- ST. CLAIR-TUSCOLA- 430 PM EST TUE MAR 2 2004 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 69. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAY TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND ONE INCH MAY OCCUR. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND INTO MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY. THE HEAVY RAIN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME MINOR FLOODING. PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS IN FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS SHOULD KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. SEE THE LATEST LAKE HURON FORECAST FOR DETAILS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. MIZ068>070-075-076-082-083-031200- LENAWEE-LIVINGSTON-MACOMB-MONROE-OAKLAND-WASHTENAW-WAYNE- 430 PM EST TUE MAR 2 2004 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 69. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAY TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES MAY OCCUR. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND INTO MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY. THE HEAVY RAIN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME MINOR FLOODING. PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS IN FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS SHOULD KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE ST CLAIR FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. SEE THE LATEST LAKE ST CLAIR FORECAST FOR DETAILS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. BRAVENDER
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The Shiawassee River near Fergus went above its flood stage of 10 feet at 10 pm EST on the 2nd. The river crested at 10.8 feet at 9 am EST on the 3rd, then fell below flood stage at 7 am EST on the 4th.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2004Every state in 2004This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, March 2004
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5388808.