Hail in Michigan, July 19, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
400 PM EDT MON JUL 19 2004

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY MINIMAL SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WITH PEAK SOLAR HEATING AND PRESENCE OF LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL ALLOW ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ETA BUFKIT ANALYSIS SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL WITH WET
BULB ZEROS FALLING BELOW 10,000 FEET EARLY...ALONG WITH CAPE OF
1000J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES AROUND -2. THESE NUMBERS SEEM FAIRLY
REASONABLE GIVEN CURRENT SURFACE OBS...BUT THE ETA HAS BEEN KNOWN TO
SLIGHTLY OVERESTIMATE THE AVAILABLE SURFACE MOISTURE. NONETHELESS
CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CWA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. EXPECTING
ONLY ISOLD COVERAGE THIS EVENING PER CURRENT KMQT AND KDLH RADAR
TRENDS...AND ANY STORMS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...WEAK HIGH PRES...AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER 500MB RIDGING
ADVANCE OVER CWA.

NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO REACH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WED AS
IT SKIRTS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. ETA CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH CWA EARLY
WED...WHILE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET DEPICT A MORE REALISTIC TIMING OF THE
FRONT FOR WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERALL THIS SYSTEM IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE...WITH ONLY MINIMAL CONVERGENCE IN THE 850-500MB LAYER
AND NO UPPER JET SUPPORT UNTIL THU MORNING. HOWEVER...GFS DEPICTS
SOME AVAILABLE CAPE AND INSTABILITY WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ON WED
AFTERNOON TO WARRANT LOW CHANCE POPS. EVEN BETTER INSTABILITY OF
6-7C/KM IN THE 850-700MB LAYER OCCURS ALONG WITH UPPER JET SUPPORT
THU...SO WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
UNTIL WED EVENING AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...AND INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ARRIVE.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS/ECMWF/UKMET ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW SURFACE HIGH
PRES DOMINATING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS 500MB
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH CANADA. BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THIS PATTERN WILL
BE THE UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS DEPICTED...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOWING THE 0C ISOTHERM OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AT 12Z FRI. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH BECOMING CENTERED OVER CWA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT...EXPECT LOW TEMPS SAT MORNING AROUND 40 DEGREES. GFS MOS SHOWS
REASONABLE VALUES OF 41 AT IMT AND 42 AT SAW...WITH MIDDLE 40S FOR
LOCATIONS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL
GRADUALLY WARM FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ON FRI TO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S BY MON.

NO SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED
PERIODS AT THIS TIME AS A 500MB RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. EXTENDED FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS MAY
TRANSITION TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS
NCEP ENSEMBLES SHOW A LITTLE MORE INCONSISTENCIES FOR DAY 7 AND
BEYOND.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

LAROSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
420 PM EDT MON JUL 19 2004

MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-201200-
ALGER-BARAGA-DELTA-DICKINSON-GOGEBIC-IRON-KEWEENAW-LUCE-MARQUETTE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN HOUGHTON-NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT-ONTONAGON-
SOUTHERN HOUGHTON-SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT-
420 PM EDT MON JUL 19 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...THOUGH ONLY BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT ANY REPORTS THIS EVENING
WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/MQT (ALL LOWER CASE)

LAROSA