Hail and Damaging Winds in Michigan, July 13, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
240 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2004

.SHORT TERM...
WHATEVER CAP WE HAD IS GONE AND THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES NOW DOWN TO -8 DEG C NEAR THE
LAKESHORE.  SO AN INCREASE IN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  IT SEEMS THAT THE BIGGEST TRIGGER TO
RELEASE THE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  THE SHORT WAVE PULL THROUGH
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AROUND 00Z.  DYNAMICS ARE STRONG...COUPLED
WITH THE INSTABILITY PRESENT...SHOULD RESULT IN A SQUALL LINE.
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT.  STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ALSO SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY...SO I HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE
PRECIPITATION FOR WED.  IT STILL LOOKS LIKE COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.  LATEST TRENDS SUPPORT AN
EARLIER ARRIVAL TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY.  I HAVE
ADDED SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...
WEATHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL INFLUENCED BY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THAT WILL ALLOW A COUPLE OF
SHORT WAVES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ACROSS THE CWA. THE FIRST
WAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. GFS SHOWS A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE CWA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENING WITH TIME. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF TSRA IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE WE TAP A SOUTH WIND MONDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. GFS SHOWS A PRETTY DYNAMIC SYSTEM AGAIN
WITH STRONG FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AFTER DRY WX ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, WELL KEEP THE MENTION OF TSRA IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

MJS 93

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1149 AM EDT TUE JUL 13 2004

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-141015-
ALLEGAN-BARRY-CALHOUN-CLARE-CLINTON-EATON-GRATIOT-INGHAM-IONIA-
ISABELLA-JACKSON-KALAMAZOO-KENT-LAKE-MASON-MECOSTA-MONTCALM-MUSKEGON-
NEWAYGO-OCEANA-OSCEOLA-OTTAWA-VAN BUREN-
1149 AM EDT TUE JUL 13 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES PUSHES SOUTH INTO A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. THE GREATEST
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. A LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WISCONSIN...ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL COULD DEVELOP EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 10 FROM LUDINGTON TO HARRISON.

TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY...SO THIS SHOULD LIMIT HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS.  FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

THE LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 30 TO 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MJS