Flood in Maine, August 13 to 14, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU MAINE
1000 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

.SYNOPSIS...THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WILL MOVE
ACROSS MAINE TONIGHT AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE REMAINS OF HURRICANE CHARLIE WILL APPROACH
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH MORE RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING A
RETURN OF DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
UPDATE: ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR DOWNEAST ZONES AND PATCHY FOG EVERYWHERE
ELSE. REST OF PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD.

CURRENT RADAR INDICATES THAT AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN HAS SHIFTED MOSTLY
INTO NEW BRUNSWICK WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE STILL TRAINING THROUGH
WASHINGTON COUNTY. MAY HAVE TO ISSUE A FLOOD WARNING FOR
WASHINGTON COUNTY IF THIS CONTINUES. ELSEWHERE RAIN IS MORE SHOWERY
IN NATURE WITH JUST SCATTERD HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP
SHOWS ANOTHER SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE RACING N UP THE COAST WHICH
ARE THE ACTUAL REMANTS OF BONNIE. EXTRAPOLATION TAKES THIS AREA OF
HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS MOSTLY THE DOWNEAST REGION BETWEEN 00Z-06Z.
THUS...WILL EXPAND FLOOD WATCH TO ALL ZONES. 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST WITH ANOTHER 1-2 OTHER AREAS. SMALL STREAMS
FULL AND GROUND SATURDATED SO IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE MORE
FLOODING.

DEEP MOISTURE MOVES E OF THE AREA BY 12Z SAT WITH LARGE SCALE
SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL PRODUCE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND WHICH WILL GIVE US A NICE DAY WITH WARM TEMPS AND
PLENTY OF SUN IN THE AFTERNOON. NICE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
REMNANTS OF CHARLIE IS FORECAST TO RACE N WITH MOISTURE REACHING
SOUTHERN AREAS EARLY SUNDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE (SUNDAY THROUGH MON NIGHT)...
EXACT TRACK OF CHARLIE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT....BUT
FORECAST IS FOR IT TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL S OF NEW ENGLAND AS CENTER
MOVES OVER LAND. 12Z GFS MOVES LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST AND THROUGH
GULF OF MAINE. HAVE BASED OUR FORECAST ON LATEST TCP TRACK. IF STORM
CAN STAY OVER WATER...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT IT COULD
PACK SOME PUNCH...SO WILL CLOSELY MONITOR. HAVE INITIALIZED POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUN-MON NIGHT TO REFLECT PASSAGE OF CHARLIE
HOWEVER HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED POPS LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY
FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES. HAVE ALSO MADE SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATIONS
TO WIND GRIDS BEFORE PUBLISHING. HAVE BASED MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ON GFS MATCH MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUE THROUGH FRI)...
GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO GFS SOLUTION FOR THIS PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE TO RIDGE OVER THE AREA ON TUE IN THE WAKE OF CHARLIE
REMAINS. LOOKS LIKE A WARM FRONT COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS WED/WED
NIGHT. A BREAK IN SHOWERS ON THU IN WARM SECTOR. APPRAOCHING COLD
FRONT TO TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS THU NIGHT/FRI.

GFS MOS TEMPS USED WITH MINOR ADJUSTMEENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR TO MVR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN LOW
CLOUDS...AREAS OF FOG...AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE MOVE THROUGH. EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT
AROUND 12Z WITH WIND SHIFT TO W. DOWNGLIDE/SYNOTIC SUBSIDENCE WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OCCURRING AT THE MOMENT WITH SEAS 5-6 FT.
WAVEWATCH INITIALIZED ON THE HIGH SIDE BUT LIKE THE TREND OF
CONTINUE TO BUILD SEAS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT IN S SWELL. SEAS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SAT AFTERNOON/NIGHT. STRONG LOW LEVEL
MARINE INVERSION SHUOLD CONTINUE TO CAP STRONG WINDS SO WILL
KEEP WINDS BELOW GALES TONIGHT. WINDS ALSO WILL DECREASE SAT AND
SAT NGT ONLY TO COME BACK UP AS THE REMNANTS OF CHARLEY APCH LATE
SUN.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT ZONES 1>6...10-11-31-32-15>17...29-30.
MARINE...SCA.

&&

SHORT TERM...GABRIC
MEDIUM RANGE...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...GABRIC
AVIATION...NORTON
UPDATE...CALDERON/NORCROSS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
425 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-141200-
CENTRAL PENOBSCOT ME-CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS ME-CENTRAL WASHINGTON ME-
COASTAL HANCOCK ME-COASTAL WASHINGTON ME-INTERIOR HANCOCK ME-
NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK ME-NORTHERN PENOBSCOT ME-NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS ME-
NORTHERN SOMERSET ME-NORTHERN WASHINGTON ME-NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK ME-
SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK ME-SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT ME-SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS ME-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALLAGASH...BANGOR...BAR HARBOR...
BAXTER ST PARK...BLUE HILL...BROWNVILLE JUNCTION...CARIBOU...
CHERRYFIELD...CLAYTON LAKE...DANFORTH...DEBOULLIE MOUNTAIN...
DEXTER...DOVER-FOXCROFT...EAGLE LAKE...EASTPORT...ELLSWORTH...
ESTCOURT STATION...FORT FAIRFIELD...FORT KENT...GREENVILLE...
GUILFORD...HOULTON...HOWLAND...LIMESTONE...LINCOLN...MACHIAS...
MADAWASKA...MILLINOCKET...MOUNT KATAHDIN...NEWPORT...OLD TOWN...
PATTEN...PORTAGE...PRESQUE ISLE...RIPOGENUS...SAINT PAMPHILE...
VAN BUREN AND VANCEBORO
425 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE.

.DAY ONE...FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO
THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE
REMNANTS OF BONNIE MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

RAIN FROM THE REMNANTS OF BONNIE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...RAINFALL FROM THE REMNANTS OF CHARLEY WILL BEGIN AFFECTING
DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF OUR REGION BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AND THEN SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF OUR REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING. MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THIS SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THE SHORT RECOVERY TIME FROM BONNIES TROPICAL
RAINFALL...GROUNDS ACROSS OUR REGION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SATURATED
RESULTING IN LOWERED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL AND A GOOD CHANCE OF NEW
FLOOD WATCHES BEING ISSUED FOR THE EVENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER RAINFALL REPORTS WOULD BE MUCH APPRECIATED THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

VJN