Tropical Storm in Florida, August 13, 2004

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
354 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

.DISCUSSION...EXTREMELY BUSY THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL MAKE THIS BRIEF.
MAJOR HURRICANE CHARLEY CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SEE THE LATEST ADVISORIES ON CHARLEY FROM NHC. EXPECT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO BEGIN TO IMPACT THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT AS
CHARLEY MOVES N-NEWD AND INLAND OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. MAY MAKE SOME
LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ZONES AND COASTAL AFTER THE 4 PM NHC
CONFERENCE CALL...OTHERWISE WILL LEAVE PRODUCTS AS IS...AS I WILL BE
DEALING WITH WARNINGS. WITH EXPECTED HEAVY RAINS...I MAY NEED TO
EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL AND WILL MAKE A
DECISION ON THIS BY THIS EVENING.

ON SATURDAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENTS BUT IT CONTINUE QUITE
WINDY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY. ALL RESIDENTS OF
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST SHOULD REFER TO LOCAL STATEMENTS AND
ADVISORIES FROM WFO TAMPA BAY AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
FOR COMPLETE INFORMATION ON HURRICANE CHARLEY.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT
 60NM INCLUDING THE COUNTIES OF LEVY...CITRUS...HERNANDO...PASCO...
 PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...MANATEE...SARASOTA...CHARLOTTE...
 DESOTO...AND LEE.
INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING FOR SUMTER...POLK...HARDEE AND
 HIGHLANDS COUNTIES.
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 5 PM TODAY FOR PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...POLK...
 MANATEE...HARDEE...DESOTO...HIGHLANDS...SARASOTA...CHARLOTTE AND LEE
 COUNTIES.
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR LEVY...CITRUS...SUMTER...
 HERNANDO...PASCO...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...POLK...MANATEE...
 SARASOTA...HARDEE...DESOTO...HIGHLANDS...CHARLOTTE...AND LEE
 COUNTIES

SHORT TERM...JCM
LONG TERM...RD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
634 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-131520-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
634 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

...HURRICANE CHARLEY HEADED FOR THE SUNCOAST TODAY...

...HURRICANE WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE
RIVER INCLUDING TAMPA BAY...

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE CHARLEY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL THIS EVENING.

THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THIS STORM WILL BE WIND DAMAGE...AS WELL AS
STORM SURGE OVER AND SOUTH OF WHERE CHARLEY MAKES LANDFALL.  HEAVY
RAINS AND FLOODING REMAIN A SECONDARY HAZARD...BUT THE SPEED OF THE
STORM SHOULD LIMIT THE EXTENT AND AMOUNT OF HEAVY RAINS ON THE
SUNCOAST.

...EXPECTED WIND HAZARDS...
ON ITS CURRENT TRACK...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE UP THE COAST BY THIS
EVENING.  SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
VERY NEAR WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM.

WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE WIND DAMAGE IS A REAL POSSIBILITY WITH
THIS STORM...EVEN WELL INLAND.

...STORM SURGE...
THE MOVEMENT OF THE STORM WILL CAUSE THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAPID RISE
IN WATER LEVELS ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES
LAND.  THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WHERE EXACTLY THE CENTER WILL
CROSS...AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE STORM TO TRACK VERY CLOSE TO
THE COAST BEFORE SWINGING INLAND.

...HEAVY RAINS...
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AND WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SUNCOAST...ANY ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS
COULD EXACERBATE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ON RAIN SWOLLEN RIVERS AND LOW
LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.  THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM
STRONGER CELLS WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TODAY AS CHARLEY SWEEPS UP THE SUNCOAST.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION...CHECK OUT
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV

PRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
150 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830-850-853-856-140600-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
150 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 750 IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM EDT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR
PASCO...SUMTER...LEVY...CITRUS...HILLSBOROUGH...SARASOTA...
HERNANDO...POLK...HIGHLANDS...HARDEE...DE SOTO...PINELLAS...LEE...
CHARLOTTE AND MANATEE COUNTIES.

MAJOR HURRICANE CHARLEY IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. MULTIPLE
BANDS OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTH AND NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
THROUGH TONIGHT. INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WITHIN THESE
BANDS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SMALL FAST MOVING TORNADOES WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

JCM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
440 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 PM     TORNADO          10 SE ZOLFO SPRINGS     27.39N 81.68W
08/13/2004                   HARDEE             FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO MOVING ALONG CR 634 NEAR
            CREWSVILLE IN RURAL SOUTHEAST HARDEE COUNTY.

0100 PM     TORNADO          LAKE WALES              27.90N 81.59W
08/13/2004                   POLK               FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO IN LAKE WALES. RELAYED BY
            CHANNEL 28.

0116 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N SEBRING             27.51N 81.45W
08/13/2004                   HIGHLANDS          FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL POWER LINES DOWN NORTH OF SEBRING.

0155 PM     TORNADO          1 E DAVENPORT           28.16N 81.59W
08/13/2004                   POLK               FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TORNADO OCCURRING AT MARIGOLD AVE. AND CYPRESS IN RURAL
            NORTHEAST POLK COUNTY.

0310 PM     TORNADO          BROWNVILLE              27.30N 81.81W
08/13/2004                   DESOTO             FL   AMATEUR RADIO

            TORNADO ON GROUND MOVING NORTH NEAR MCINTYCE RD. AND US
            17. LASTED APPROXIMATELY 5 MINUTES. ONE BUILDING WAS
            DAMAGED.

0323 PM     TORNADO          CAPE CORAL              26.58N 81.99W
08/13/2004                   LEE                FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATERSPOUT MOVED ASHORE AND DOWNED APPROXIMATELY SEVEN
            TREES...THEN LIFTED.

0404 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ENGLEWOOD               26.96N 82.35W
08/13/2004                   SARASOTA           FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN FOUR BLOCKS EAST OF INDIANA AND RIVER
            ROAD.

&&

JLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
449 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     WATER SPOUT      5 SE CAPE CORAL         26.52N 81.93W
08/13/2004                   LEE                FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATERSPOUT OVER ESCALON BAY.

&&

JLC