Marine Thunderstorm Winds in Lake Huron, June 13, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
343 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2004

.DISCUSSION...

ON THE HEELS OF THE SUPERCELL IN CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN, THERE IS
STILL PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN THE LEE OF LAKE MICHIGAN DOWN INTO
NORTHERN INDIANA AND EAST THROUGH ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THIS
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS AWAITING CONTINUED UPPER SUPPORT FROM
A SHORT WAVE OVER ILLINOIS. SURFACE CONVERGENCE, ENHANCED BY THE
LAKE BREEZE AND PREFRONTAL TROF OVER SW LOWER, WILL HELP FOCUS
CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTHERN INDIANA AND NEW STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER SW LOWER TOWARD PEAK HEATING AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS HIGH WITH MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE NEAR 3 KJ/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 30 M/S. THIS HAS BEEN AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
TORNADOES. IN ADDITION, MATURE CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF
DEVELOPING INTO BOWS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, TO GO ALONG WITH
LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL BE TO OUR EAST BY LATE EVENING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALL OF THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS DEPICT A SHARP THETA-E TROF THAT WILL SPREAD OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT, ON THE HEELS OF THE SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE TROF.
THIS WILL OCCUR IN THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER AND IS A SIMILAR MOISTURE
PROFILE TO LAST NIGHT WHICH PREVENTED NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW LEVEL JET AND BEST MOISTURE RETURN WILL SET UP
OVER IOWA OVERNIGHT. SOME SORT OF MCS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THAT
AREA AND MOVE EAST WITH THE MOIST AXIS DURING MONDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE ADVECTION, SHORT WAVE SUPPORT, AND A STRONG UPPER JET WILL
HELP SUSTAIN THE SYSTEM LONG ENOUGH FOR IT TO REACH SE MICHIGAN IN A
MATURE STAGE DURING THE 12Z TO 18Z TIMEFRAME, THEN LAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON. LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY, AROUND 2000 J/KG
OVER SE MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING, WILL MAKE SEVERE WEATHER A
POSSIBILITY. SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE STRONGLY
INFLUENCED BY THE EVOLUTION OF THE REMAINS OF THE NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY
AND ANY OUTFLOW/MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE
PLENTY ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
GIVE US A BREAK IN THE ACTION UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES ON
WEDNESDAY. THE LONG RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
DEVELOPMENTS FOR THE LARGE SCALE UPPER PATTERN. ALL SHOW THE
WEDNESDAY FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER SE MICHIGAN. THE LARGE UPPER TROF
OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL THEN DIG AGGRESSIVELY INTO THE MIDWEST ON
FRIDAY AND BRING IN A ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHORT
WAVE AND COLD FRONT. PLAN TO START SUNDAY OFF ON THE COOL AND DRY
SIDE AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

BT

EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1225 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2004

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-141000-
BAY-GENESEE-HURON-LAPEER-LENAWEE-LIVINGSTON-MACOMB-MIDLAND-MONROE-
OAKLAND-SAGINAW-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-ST. CLAIR-TUSCOLA-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-
1225 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH SOME OF THESE
STORMS. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH
AND HAIL ONE INCH OR GREATER IN DIAMETER. A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AND THUMB REGION. VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THE
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER IS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM
THIS EVENING. NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRIGGER NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAY TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGER IMMEDIATELY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
338 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     HAIL             GORDONVILLE             43.57N 84.37W
06/13/2004  1.00 INCH        MIDLAND            MI   AMATEUR RADIO

            1 INCH HAIL REPORTED AT GORDONVILLE AND MERIDIAN RD

&&

AWIPSUSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
350 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             MIDLAND                 43.62N 84.23W
06/13/2004  1.75 INCH        MIDLAND            MI   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZE

&&

AWIPSUSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
358 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     TORNADO          AUBURN                  43.60N 84.08W
06/13/2004                   BAY                MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORNADO ON THE GROUND AT SALSBERG AND 7 MILE ROADS

&&

AWIPSUSR