Flash Flooding in Kentucky, March 5 to 6, 2004

Name: Flash Flooding in Kentucky, March 5 to 6, 2004
Start: 2004-03-05T22:45
End: 2004-03-06T23:18
Location: Kentucky

March 5 to 6, 2004 · NWS JKL · 7 events in 7 counties and zones

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 7 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 7

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.

A rain event that lasted from February 5th through the 7th caused widespread flooding of area highways and secondary roads. The rain caused flash flooding for many areas at onset, and as the rain continued, the flooding became a widespread and long lived flooding event for several locations. Many businesses, schools, and churches closed because countless roads were completely submerged in water. In some cases, as in Estill and Wayne Counties, the flooding lasted for days, well after the rain had ended.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 5, 5:05 PM EST, 5 hours 40 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 5, 5:05 PM EST, 5 hours 40 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
505 PM EST FRI MAR 5 2004

.DISCUSSION...

LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN CNTRL KENTUCKY. ETA/GFS STILL
PUTTING OUT 2 TO 3 INCH QPF AMOUNTS...ONLY THE CORE OF HIGHER VALUES
IS SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WEST OF PREVIOUS RUNS. FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES
FOR ENTIRE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH SHIFT IN FOCUS OF HIGHEST
QPF...FLOODING CONCERN MAY NOT BE AS HIGH DUE TO THE FACT THAT MUCH
OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION MAY MISS THE HEAD WATER AREAS OF
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.

EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 10 PM AS REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE
CONTINUED TO COME IN FROM ACROSS CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL TO SET UP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
MULTIPLE...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE. SO AREA
WILL BE UNDER COOL...UNSTABLE PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME CONSISTENCY IN THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES. SO
RAISED...INTRODUCED POPS FOR THOSE TIME FRAMES THAT WERE LESS
UNCERTAIN YESTERDAY. BOTTOM LINE IS SEVERAL CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING...DAY VERSUS NIGHT...EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL SEE THE CHANCE OF
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

1255 AM EST FRI MAR 5 2004

NEEDED TO ADJUST ALL ZONES FOR RISING TEMPERATURES. MOST AREAS WILL
HIT MID TO UPPER 70S BY END OF DAY. UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

WILL FOCUS NOW ON SHOWERS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ZONES.

&&

1125 AM EST FRI MAR 5 2004

WINDS PICKING UP THIS MORN AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. NUMEROUS TREES REPORTED DOWN EARLIER IN OUR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES. ONE REPORT OF A BRICK AND CONCRETE WALL BLOWING DOWN NEAR
CORBIN IN WHITLEY COUNTY. DECIDED TO ISSUE WIND ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE
FA THROUGH 4 PM. ADJUSTED SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS IN GRIDS FOR
CONSISTENCY. QUICK UPDATE ALREADY OUT. ONLY CHANGE FOR NOW IS ON
WINDS. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT REMAINDER OF PACKAGE. TEMPS ARE
CLIMBING PRETTY RAPIDLY AND MAY REQUIRE ADJUSTING LATTER.

&&

703 AM EST FRI MAR 5 2004

SEVERAL FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE NEAR TERM...WITH THE THREAT OF
HEAVY RAIN...AND POTENTIAL FLOODING BEING THE MAIN FOCUS. SECONDARY
THREAT OF STRONG STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING HAIL AND WINDS. SWODY1
OUT FOR EASTERN KY...WITH STRONG LIFT AND COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
BRINGING THE CHANCE OF HAIL.

FOR TODAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY...SPREADING RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST.
THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONG LL JET AND PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
WILL ENHANCE RAIN TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO FALL. PWS ARE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MESOETA SHOWS HELICITY AROUND 730 M2/S2 ON 06Z SATURDAY, WITH AN LI
OF -1.7 FOR LOZ.

FRONT PASSES THROUGHT THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM VERY LITTLE ON SATURDAY AND DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK. A CLIPPER SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
BRINGING THE CHANCE SOME SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE WV
BORDER.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM...WITH MOS SHOWING
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S TODAY. WENT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THIS
WILL COLLABORATION AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

ONLY MADE A FEW WORDING CHANGES FOR THE EXTENDED.

&&

1048 PM EST THU MAR 4 2004

CURRENTLY IN WARM SECTOR AIR AWAITING VIGOROUS SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS
AT THIS TIME. ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY CEASED AFTER SUNSET...SO WILL
REMOVE ALL POPS. DESPITE GOOD SOUTHERLY WIND TAKING PLACE...TEMPS
HAVE ACTUALLY GONE BELOW FORECAST LOWS IN A FEW
PLACES...SPECIFICALLY SHELTERED VALLEYS SO WILL INCLUDE A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT TO COVER. HAVE GLANCED AT SOME 00Z META DATA COMING IN
CONCERNING OUR FLOODING POTENTIAL TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE STILL LOOKS VERY PLENTIFUL WITH
SLOWLY PROGATING FRONT LEADING TO TRAINING CELLS. WAS CONSIDERING ON
ADJUSTING FLOOD WATCH AREA A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH ON THIS
UPDATE...HOWEVER WILL LET MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAKE THE DECISION TO
WHETHER TO HOLD ONTO CURRENT SCHEME OR ADJUST. STILL PLENTY OF TIME
BEFORE ONSET OF PROBLEMATIC RAINFALL AND MORE DATA TO ANALYZE.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS STILL A CONCERN WITH HEALTHY WIND PROFILE.
INSTABILITY IS STILL THE WEAKEST COMPONENT. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH FOR ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH NOON SATURDAY. WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT.

RAY

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 5, 7:51 AM EST, 14 hours 54 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...AMENDED FOR TORNADO OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
751 AM EST FRI MAR 5 2004

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-061200-
BATH KY-BELL KY-BREATHITT KY-CLAY KY-ELLIOTT KY-ESTILL KY-FLEMING KY-
FLOYD KY-HARLAN KY-JACKSON KY-JOHNSON KY-KNOTT KY-KNOX KY-LAUREL KY-
LEE KY-LESLIE KY-LETCHER KY-MAGOFFIN KY-MARTIN KY-MCCREARY KY-
MENIFEE KY-MONTGOMERY KY-MORGAN KY-OWSLEY KY-PERRY KY-PIKE KY-
POWELL KY-PULASKI KY-ROCKCASTLE KY-ROWAN KY-WAYNE KY-WHITLEY KY-
WOLFE KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARBOURVILLE...BEATTYVILLE...BOONEVILLE...
CAMPTON...FLEMINGSBURG...FRENCHBURG...HARLAN...HAZARD...HINDMAN...
HYDEN...INEZ...IRVINE...JACKSON...LONDON...MANCHESTER...MCKEE...
MIDDLESBORO...MONTICELLO...MOREHEAD...MOUNT STERLING...
MOUNT VERNON...OWINGSVILLE...PAINTSVILLE...PIKEVILLE...PINEVILLE...
PRESTONSBURG...SALYERSVILLE...SANDY HOOK...SOMERSET...STANTON...
WEST LIBERTY...WHITESBURG...WHITLEY CITY AND WILLIAMSBURG
621 AM EST FRI MAR 5 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WHICH MAY PRODUCE
TORNADOES.  THE GREATEST RISK OF THIS IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE HAL
ROGERS PARKWAY AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 75. THERE IS A RISK OF
FLOODING...DAMAGING WIND...AND LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  OVERNIGHT...THERE IS A CONTINUED RISK
OF FLOODING AND DAMAGING WIND.  SEE THE FLOOD WATCH (SDFFFAJKL) FOR
MORE DETAILS OF FLOODING POTENTIAL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A RISK OF FLOODING SATURDAY MORNING AND A POTENTIAL FOR
RIVER FLOODING FOR THE WHOLE DAY ON SATURDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN ALL HAIL...WIND...AND FLOODING
REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

HEINLEIN

The radar

The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 68 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:43 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

7 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.

Flash Flood, Rowan

When: March 5, 10:45 PM EST to March 6, 3:00 AM EST
Where: Rowan County, Hays Crossing
Reported by: FIRE DEPT/RESCUE SQUAD
Coordinates: 38.196, -83.421 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Flash Flood, Powell

When: March 5, 10:59 PM EST to March 6, 3:00 AM EST
Where: Powell County, Clay City
Reported by: TRAINED SPOTTER
Coordinates: 37.831, -83.824 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Flash Flood, Menifee

When: March 5, 11:15 PM EST to March 6, 11:18 PM EST
Where: Menifee County, Means
Reported by: TRAINED SPOTTER
Coordinates: 37.941, -83.599 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Flash Flood, Estill

When: March 5, 11:25 PM EST to March 6, 3:00 AM EST
Where: Estill County, Irvine
Reported by: LAW ENFORCEMENT
Coordinates: 37.693, -83.964 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Flash flooding occurred on Dark Hollow Road.

Flash Flood, Floyd

When: March 6, 2:40 AM EST to 4:30 AM EST
Where: Floyd County, 4 mi S of Prestonsburg
Reported by: TRAINED SPOTTER
Coordinates: 37.557, -82.746 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Flash Flood, Letcher

When: March 6, 4:20 AM EST to 7:30 AM EST
Where: Letcher County, 2 mi W of Whitesburg
Reported by: GOVT OFFICIAL
Coordinates: 37.121, -82.855 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Flash Flood, Harlan

When: March 6, 5:30 AM EST to 10:00 AM EST
Where: Harlan County, Closplint
Reported by: LAW ENFORCEMENT
Coordinates: 36.857, -83.218 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

What these are

Flash Flood: Flooding that begins within six hours of the rain that causes it, or of a dam or levee failure or ice jam release, often with deadly speed.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Kentucky in 2004 Every state in 2004 This day in weather history Warnings in Kentucky, March 2004

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5387096, 5387098, 5387097, 5387192, 5387099, 5387100, 5387101.