Flash Flood in Kentucky, June 12, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
553 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 2004

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LIES OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE
FIRED UP OVERNIGHT IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...WITH THE BULK OF
THE ACTIVITY BEING JUST TO THE EAST IN WV. THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA ALSO EXPERIENCED THE MOST RAINFALL LAST EVENING...AND HAS
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AS A RESULT OF THE COOLED/SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER. SUSPECT THAT THE FOG IS A BIT PATCHIER IN NATURE TO
THE SOUTHWEST. WILL REFLECT THE FOG AND LOW CLOUD SITUATION IN THE
FORECAST.

ALL MODELS REDEVELOP/JUMP THE FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...LEAVING
EASTERN KY FULLY IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND MOS NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE DAYTIME. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT WX FEATURES ONCE
THE FRONT LEAVES...THINK WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A DIURNAL NATURE
TO THE PRECIP. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT IT WOULD
NOT TAKE MUCH TO SET SOMETHING OFF EVEN AT NIGHT. WITH WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS AT NIGHT...AM CONCERNED THAT EVEN SMALL
DISTURBANCES COULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE CONVECTION. THUS...HAVE USED A
SMALL TO MID CHANCE POP DURING OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS AND A MID TO
HIGH CHANCE POP DURING AFTERNOON EVENING HOURS.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS COMES INTO PLAY FROM
MONDAY ONWARD. THE GFS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING...WHILE THE ETA HOLDS THE TRUE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL TO THE
NORTH. THE GFS SURFACE FEATURES LOOK SUSPECT ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WITH VERY HEAVY PRECIP...A QUICKLY DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW...AND A SMALL POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OVER THE MIDWEST.
IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THERE IS TROUBLE HANDLING CONVECTION. AS A
RESULT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE FRONT IS PROPELLED
SOUTHEASTWARD ON THE GFS. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE LESS AGGRESSIVE ETA
FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK.  THIS MEANS HIGHER DEW POINTS AND HIGHER POPS
ON TUESDAY THAN THE MEX NUMBERS SHOW.

FOR TEMPS...HAVE USED A COMPROMISE OF THE GFS MOS AND NGM MOS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THINKING THAT GFS MOS HIGH TEMPS MIGHT NOT BE
QUITE WARM ENOUGH.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

1010 PM EDT FRI JUN 11 2004

OVERALL...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATE THIS EVENING TO DROP
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED.
ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER...THUNDERSHOWER POPPING UP FROM TIME TO
TIME. BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR CWA...ORIENTED FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY. ADJUSTED POPS
DOWN FOR REST OF OVERNIGHT. ALSO INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS WHICH HAVE SEEN PRECIP. OTHERWISE...MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND DEW POINTS IN GRIDS...TO COME IN LINE WITH
CURRENT TRENDS IN HOURLY OBS.

UPDATED ZONES ALREADY OUT.

554 PM EDT FRI JUN 11 2004

MESOETA SOUNDINGS DEPICTED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT STORMS INTO EVENING HOURS OF DAY ONE...SO
WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN NORTHERN COUNTIES AS WESTERN EDGE OF SQUALL
LINE MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY. SOME CELLS STILL
FIRING UP HEAR WESTERN EDGE OF THIS LINE IN NORTHERN REGION OF WATCH
BOX. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR REST OF CWA IN CASE NEW STORMS FIRE
UP BEFORE SUNSET IN STILL MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WENT VERY CLOSE
TO GFS MOS FOR TEMPS FOR THE SHORT TERM...AS A VERY WARM...HUMID AIR
MASS IS GOING TO STAY IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. ANOTHER MCS SHOULD FORM
ALONG NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND DIVE
SOUTHWARD ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING. A
FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS THAT FORM IN
SOUTHERN IN/OH WILL HAVE LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOIST AIR TO FEED OFF OF
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. USED A BLEND
OF THE GFS AND MESOETA MODEL OUTPUT FOR TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIP AND SKY COVER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

HAL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
919 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 2004

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-131100-
BATH KY-BELL KY-BREATHITT KY-CLAY KY-ELLIOTT KY-ESTILL KY-FLEMING KY-
FLOYD KY-HARLAN KY-JACKSON KY-JOHNSON KY-KNOTT KY-KNOX KY-LAUREL KY-
LEE KY-LESLIE KY-LETCHER KY-MAGOFFIN KY-MARTIN KY-MCCREARY KY-
MENIFEE KY-MONTGOMERY KY-MORGAN KY-OWSLEY KY-PERRY KY-PIKE KY-
POWELL KY-PULASKI KY-ROCKCASTLE KY-ROWAN KY-WAYNE KY-WHITLEY KY-
WOLFE KY-
919 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF
THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH A THREAT OF HIGH
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ASSISTANCE MAY BE NEEDED TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
249 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W BANDY               37.29N 84.54W
06/12/2004                   PULASKI            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DISPATCH REPORTED SEVERAL TREES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 70
            BETWEEN EUBANK AND BANDY.

&&

RAY