Hail and Damaging Winds in Kentucky, July 6, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
300 AM CDT TUE JUL 6 2004

.SHORT TERM...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY.

LOOKING AT THE VERY SHORT TERM...ACCORDING TO MODEL ANALYSIS...IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GRIDS HAVE PRECIP ENTERING IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA PER EARLIER RUN OF THE ETA...WHICH WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE GFS. NOW...THE ETA HAS SLOWED DOWN FROM EARLIER RUNS WITH
BRINGING IN PRECIP...NOW HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z.
HOWEVER...FORECASTING PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING WILL HAVE TO RELY
ON MESOSCALE FEATURES...SINCE MODELS HAVE NOT HAD A CLUE HOW TO DEAL
WITH PREVIOUS MORNINGS MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TO OUR WEST.
CONVECTION LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THAT MOVED ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES HAS SET UP OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT ARE MOVING
SOUTH. ALSO...THE RUC SHOWS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POSSIBLE MCS OVER
EASTERN KS AND CENTRAL MO EARLY THIS MORNING. AS WAS THE CASE MONDAY
MORNING...CONVECTION OUT TO OUR WEST CONTINUED TO SET UP OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WHICH CAUSED MORE AND MORE CONVECTION TO FORM THAT
EVENTUALLY MADE IT INTO OUR AREA. IN ADDITION...HIGH CAPE
VALUES...LOW LIFTED INCIES...AND HIGH THETA E VALUES ARE PROGGED
BEFORE 18Z. SO IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO JUST PAINT A BROADBRUSHED 30 POP
FOR THIS MORNING TO COVER ANY CONVECTION THAT COULD FORM.

MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING IN LINE SOMEWHAT WITH AT LEAST THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT TODAY INTO LATE TONIGHT. TIMING OF MODEL
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER...IS ANOTHER STORY...ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE 00Z GFS/ETA SHOW FRONT APPROACHING THE CWA
TODAY...AND THEN STALLING OUT. WILL OPT TO RAISE POPS THIS AFTERNOON
EVERYWHERE DUE TO MODELS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER.
ALSO...CAPES ARE IN THE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE WITH LIFTED INDCIES
WELL BELOW ZERO...COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY.
SPC HAS US IN A SLIGHT RISK WITH A CHANCE OF POSSIBLY UPGRADING TO A
MODERATE.

BOTH MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT (AT LEAST THE PRESSURE TROUGH)
BISECTING OUR AREA BY 06Z WED. THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS DIVERGE
SOMEWHAT WITH THE DETAILS. THE MESOETA WANTS TO MOVE PRECIP OUT FROM
WEST TO EAST FROM 06Z-18Z WED...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS PRECIP OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THAT PERIOD. THE GFS MOVES THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT
ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA...HANGING IT UP ACROSS MAINLY WEST KY...
SOUTHWEST IN AND EVEN SOUTHERN MO...AND IN TURN PAINTS QPF OVER THAT
AREA THROUGH 06Z THU. THE MESOETA ALSO STALLS THE FRONT OVER OUR
CWA...AND GENERATES PRECIP AT 00Z THU ALONG THE FRONT RIGHT IN THE
CENTER OF OUR CWA... AND MOVES THAT PRECIP EAST AND OUT OF OUR AREA
BY 09Z THU.

WITH ALL THAT SAID...EVEN THOUGH THE MESOETA PUSHES PRECIP OUT OF
THE CWA BY 18Z WED...WILL LEAVE GOING POPS IN THE GRIDS (SLIGHT
CHANCE NORTH TO CHANCE SOUTH) TO REFLECT NEW 00Z GFS...WHICH KEPT
PRECIP IN THROUGH 18Z. AFTER 18Z WILL BE TRICKY. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...GFS KEEPS PRECIP ONLY IN THE EAST AND SOUTH WHILE THE
MESOETA NOW DEVELOPS PRECIP RIGHT OVER THE CENTER OF OUR CWA BY 00Z
THU. WE WILL TREND TOWARD DECREASING POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FROM 18Z WED TO 00Z THU. THEN...WE WILL JUST ADD SLIGHT
CHANCE CHANCE POPS IN WEST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT THURS OR A BIT LATER.

ONLY OTHER CHANGE MADE WAS TO FRIDAY...IN WHICH WE TRENDED TO
LOWER POPS A BIT...BECAUSE THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE APPEARS TO
BE FARTHER WEST. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE BEYOND DAY 4.

SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS TO BLEND BETTER AND TO HEDGE
TOWARD NEWEST GUIDANCE...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...THEY SEEM IN LINE
WITH GOING MOS NUMBERS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

CW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1120 AM CDT TUE JUL 6 2004

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-071000-
ALEXANDER IL-BALLARD KY-BOLLINGER MO-BUTLER MO-CALDWELL KY-
CALLOWAY KY-CAPE GIRARDEAU MO-CARLISLE KY-CARTER MO-CHRISTIAN KY-
CRITTENDEN KY-DAVIESS KY-EDWARDS IL-FRANKLIN IL-FULTON KY-
GALLATIN IL-GIBSON IN-GRAVES KY-HAMILTON IL-HARDIN IL-HENDERSON KY-
HICKMAN KY-HOPKINS KY-JACKSON IL-JEFFERSON IL-JOHNSON IL-
LIVINGSTON KY-LYON KY-MARSHALL KY-MASSAC IL-MCCRACKEN KY-MCLEAN KY-
MISSISSIPPI MO-MUHLENBERG KY-NEW MADRID MO-PERRY MO-PERRY IL-PIKE IN-
POPE IL-POSEY IN-PULASKI IL-RIPLEY MO-SALINE IL-SCOTT MO-SPENCER IN-
STODDARD MO-TODD KY-TRIGG KY-UNION KY-UNION IL-VANDERBURGH IN-
WABASH IL-WARRICK IN-WAYNE MO-WAYNE IL-WEBSTER KY-WHITE IL-
WILLIAMSON IL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SIKESTON...POPLAR BLUFF...PERRYVILLE...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...PADUCAH...OWENSBORO...MURRAY...MAYFIELD...
MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...EVANSVILLE...HERRIN...
HARRISBURG...CARMI...CARBONDALE AND CAIRO
1120 AM CDT TUE JUL 6 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...

A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND SMALL PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AND WEST
KENTUCKY...BASICALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM LANCASTER
ILLINOIS...TO NEW HARMONY INDIANA...TO NEAR SACRAMENTO KENTUCKY. A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS
THE REST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. SIMILAR TO THE PATTERN OF THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...LARGE CLUSTERS OR LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR.
THESE STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND A FEW HAIL OCCURRENCES. THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

A VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL SUSTAIN LARGE COMPLEXES OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY MOVE EAST FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOWER. A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LEVELS ACROSS WESTERN
KENTUCKY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
FORECAST FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR RETURNS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SPOTTERS MAY AGAIN BE REQUESTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE ADVISED TO LISTEN FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WATCHES TODAY.

RST