Flash Flood in Kentucky, July 12, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1125 AM EDT MON JUL 12 2004

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATE THIS MORNING TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING AND TO INCR POPS FOR
MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY 10.  WEAKENING AREA OF SHOWERS AND TS COMING
THROUGH CENTRAL KY...BUT NEW DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY WORKING THROUGH EASTERN PORTION OF CWA SPARKING
LATE MORNING SHOWERS.  HESITATED TO INCR POPS IN THE NORTH DUE TO A
BIT SLOWER RECOVERY FROM PREVALENT LOW CLOUDS.  FOR TEMPS...LOWERED
ONE DEGREE UP NORTH CAUSE OF THE SAME LOW CLOUDS...BUT INCR TO THE
SOUTH.  UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

445 AM EDT MON JUL 12 2004

ONLY MODEL THAT TRULY CAPTURED ACTIVITY THAT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT IN
LMK FORECAST AREA WAS THE RUC...AT LEAST SO FAR AS THE VORT FIELD
GOES. RUC SUGGESTED THE MOVEMENT OF THAT CULPRIT TO THE
SW...BRINGING IT INTO OUR CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH
COOLER/LESS MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE HERE...AND A LACK OF GOOD
LLJ...ACTIVITY WAS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH...AND HAS. A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED AS A RESULT OF WEAK OUTFLOW FROM
COLLAPSING SHOWERS...BUT THEY HAVE BEEN MINIMAL THUS FAR...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO FADE QUICKLY AS WELL.

MAIN TRIGGER FOR ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE S/WV ROTATING IN FROM THE NW
ALONG EASTERN FLANK OF BUILDING RIDGE. MODEL INDICATIONS ARE THAT
WAVE SHOULD ARRIVE A LITTLE AFTER PEAK HEATING...BUT IT NOT A
PARTICULARLY STRONG FEATURE. EXPECT THAT CONVECTION ACTIVE IN SW
INDIANA TO LOSE IT/S PUNCH BEFORE WORKING IN TO OUR CWA...FOR MUCH
THE SAME REASON AS THE FAILURE EARLIER CONVECTION. CLOUD TOPS
ALREADY WARMING A BIT. VORT LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SHEAR E/W TO BECOME THE AFORE MENTIONED FEATURE...AHEAD OF WHICH
CONVECTION WILL AGAIN FIRE THIS AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH WITH
THE TIMING OF SMALLER BOUNDARIES OR S/WV...AND SAW NO REASON FOR
HIGHER POPS IN ONE PART OF CWA AS OPPOSED TO ANOTHER AS SOUNDINGS
TODAY NEARLY IDENTICAL ABOVE THE SURFACE CWA-WIDE...AND THERE ARE NO
APPARENT MODEL INDICATIONS OTHERWISE. ON THAT SAME NOTE...DID NOT
FEEL CONFIDENT WITH GOING LIKELY AREAWIDE...SO ESSENTIALLY DROPPED
POPS THE FEW PERCENT IN ANY AREAS THAT LIKELY WAS PREVIOUSLY...TO
MAKE 50% AREAWIDE.

ALSO...CUT POPS OFF MORE QUICKLY TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH TIMING
OF DRY AIR INTRUSION ALOFT AS SUGGESTED BY MESOETA/MAV. MERIDIONAL
ORIENTATION OF 500 MB ISO-HEIGHTS BECOMES MUCH MORE PREVALENT AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES.

FOR TUES...STOUT CAP STILL PROGGED...AND 00Z MAV FIRST TO GO BELOW
SLIGHT...AND IS ALONE THERE. THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION SEEMS
FAIRLY DEPENDANT ON S/WV RIDGING TUES AFTERNOON...AND THUS LEAVES A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY. SO...WITH AN OTHERWISE VERY UNSTABLE
SOUNDING...ELECTED TO LEAVE THE AFTERNOON SLIGHT POPS.

TUES NIGHT LOOKS DRY...RIDGING STILL IN PLACE...AND THE AREA BETWEEN
SYSTEMS.

KEPT WED POPS A LITTLE BELOW MAV MOS FOR THE MOST PART. TIMING STILL
A LITTLE BIT IFFY...BUT GFS TRYS TO BRING BEST FORCING INTO THE SE
PART OF THE CWA BY PEAK HEATING...LEAVING BEST QPF THERE.
HOWEVER...LAST COUPLE OF RUNS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
LOCATION OF UPPER LOW. EITHER WAY...NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE FOR OUR AREA
SO FAR AS OVERALL COVERAGE GOES.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR AS PAST COUPLE OF
PACKAGES...WITH SHOOTING OVER THE MAV FOR HIGHS...WHICH HAS BEEN
COOL CONSISTENTLY AS OF LATE...AND CLOSE TO MAV WITH LOWS....WHERE
IS HAS BEEN PERFORMING FAIRLY WELL AS OF LATE. LOOKS AS THOUGH THIS
PATTERN BREAK THIS WEEK WILL CHANGE THIS THOUGH. AS MENTIONED IN
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...HEAT INDEX BECOMING OF
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY FOR TUES. TUES 850 TEMPS APPROACHING 20C WITH
00Z META...BUT COOLER WITH NEWEST. ALTHOUGH ADVISORY CONDITIONS DO
NOT LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET AT THIS TIME...HI AROUND 100 ARE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY...AND DOES WARRANT THE MENTION IN THE HWO THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

1045 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

LAST OF THE LINE OF SHRA/TSRA PUSHING THRU PIKE CO IN EXTREME
EASTERN KY. NEXT WAVE ON THE DOORSTEP...ABOUT TO CROSS I-75. THE
NEXT WAVE HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY AND MAY PROVIDE ONLY A FEW LIGHT
SHRA AS IT PASSES THRU THE AREA. BACK-BUILDING MCS IN WESTERN IA
KEEPS THROWING OFF PIECES OF ENERGY THAT ARE FALLING INTO THE
OVERALL LONG WAVE TROF THAT DIRECTS THEM TOWARD ERN KY. RADAR AND
WV/SAT INDICATE THAT THERE ARE CURRENTLY BETWEEN 4 AND 5 S/WV IN THE
FLOW BETWEEN ERN KY AND IA. THESE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA IN A THREAT
FOR SHRA AND AN ISOLATED TSRA FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. HAVE DROPPED
POPS FROM LIKELY TO CHC DUE TO THE INTERMITTENT NATURE AND
UNCERTANITY ABOUT IF THE WAVES WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH WHEN THEY MAKE IT
TO OUR CWFA. FOG ALMOST A CERTANITY AND HAVE INTRODUCED FOG INTO THE
MORNING FCST AS WELL DUE TO WIDESPREAD PCPN SUNDAY AND PERSISTENCE.
REST OF THE FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

421 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

A LITTLE LATER START TO CONVECTION TODAY AND A LITTLE LESS
COVERAGE.  AT ANY RATE...RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN MODERATE IN THE
MORE DEVELOPED STORMS.  ISO HVY RAINFALL PRIMARY THREAT TONIGHT.

SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHED NORTH TODAY AND IS NOW LOCATED
ACROSS NORTHERN OH.  UPSTREAM LINE OF STORMS FROM SOUTHERN IN/N KY
MAY HOLD TOGETHER THE LONGEST TONIGHT IF THEY CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE
AND MAY COME ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT.  OTHERWISE TS
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT
CONTINUED CHC POPS TONIGHT FOR UPSTREAM CONDITIONS.  MCS OVER IL HAS
CONTINUED FROM LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND HAS BEEN
TRAVELING SOUTHEAST TODAY.  ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS FORMED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MCV ACROSS SE NE.  THIS MCS FUTURE AS FAR AS E KY
IS CONCERNED IS UNCERTAIN WITH H8 FLOW MORE PARALLEL TO SYSTEM TRACK
AND WORKED OVER ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM.

SIMILAR SCENARIO MONDAY BUT WILL BEGIN TRANSITION TO TROUGH
EAST/RIDGE WEST PATTERN THAT WILL COOL US OFF FOR THE WEEKEND.  WITH
SHORTWAVE ADVERTISED...WENT JUST BARELY WITH LIKELY POPS.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A WARM ONE WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND THE 90 MARK
AND HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S.  THIS ISNT NEAR ENOUGH FOR HEAT
ADV...BUT SHOULD BE CONSIDERED FOR MON MORNINGS HWO IF TEMPS
CONTINUE TO TREND THIS WAY.  H8 TEMPS GET CLOSE TO 20C AHEAD OF MAIN
SHORTWAVE.  STAYED WITH THE SLT CHC POPS THAT GUID GAVE FOR TUE DUE
TO DECENT CAP ADVERTISED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

EARLY WED OUR FIRST TRUE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING
HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURE RELIEF.  INC POPS TOWARD MORNING AND INTO
WED...BEFORE EXITING PRECIP CHC FOR WED NIGHT.

EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE RIDGE BUILDING OVER WRN
NORTH AMERICA WITH AN UNSEASONABLY AMPLIFIED TROF OVER THE ERN
UNITED STATES FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ECMWF DOES
NOT LOWER HEIGHTS AS MUCH AS THE GFS...BUT THERE IS GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN. COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF
AREA BY THURSDAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY WITH UPPER LOW OVER WRN NY STATE AND
CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. AFTERNOON HEATING COULD RESULT IN
SOME FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS AREA...AND THE 12Z GFS HINTS AT
SHORT WAVE/VORT MOVING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROF ON THURSDAY...SO
MAY SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AIR MASS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY THOUGH.
EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY...WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY. AS SFC HIGH
MOVES TO OUR EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WILL SEE RETURN OF WARMER/MORE
MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY...AND HAVE
INCLUDED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY. WITH TROF
OVER ERN U.S. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.JKL...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...KY...NONE.

&&

OUDEMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
600 AM EDT MON JUL 12 2004

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-131200-
BATH KY-BELL KY-BREATHITT KY-CLAY KY-ELLIOTT KY-ESTILL KY-FLEMING KY-
FLOYD KY-HARLAN KY-JACKSON KY-JOHNSON KY-KNOTT KY-KNOX KY-LAUREL KY-
LEE KY-LESLIE KY-LETCHER KY-MAGOFFIN KY-MARTIN KY-MCCREARY KY-
MENIFEE KY-MONTGOMERY KY-MORGAN KY-OWSLEY KY-PERRY KY-PIKE KY-
POWELL KY-PULASKI KY-ROCKCASTLE KY-ROWAN KY-WAYNE KY-WHITLEY KY-
WOLFE KY-
600 AM EDT MON JUL 12 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP TODAY MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF CONTAINING HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON TUESDAY WILL COMBINE TO RESULT IN HEAT
INDICES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND SUNDAY...AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY.
ALSO...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ON WEDNESDAY.

PIEPER