1 flash flood, as filed by the National Weather Service.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 2, 5:31 AM EST, 59 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 531 AM EST FRI JAN 2 2004 .DISCUSSION... AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A COUPLED JET...BOTH RR AND LF REGIONS OF JET...WITH A SUBTROPICAL FEED. THIS IS A CLASSIC HEAVY RAIN MAKER. PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND PVA TO ADD SOME THUNDER IN FOR GOOD MEASURE. WENT 100 POPS THROUGH EARLY AM...ITS RAINING OUTSIDE. EXPECT RAIN TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY...MAY EVEN SEE A BREAK IN PRECIP LATER TODAY. BUT WILL NOT LAST LONG AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MARCHES INTO OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT...PROVIDING THE AREA WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. WITH ALL THE RAIN THAT IS EXPECTED...PROBABLY WISE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS. FLS OUT FOR PORTIONS OF CWA THIS MORNING. OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE TO GRIDS...JUST SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS FOR TEMPS. EXPECTED A SMALLER DIURNAL RANGE FOR TEMPS...WITH RAIN AND CLOUDS...HOWEVER STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE. MAIN EXCEPTION WAS FOR SUNDAY TIME FRAME AS TEMPS LOOK JUST A TAD TOO WARM FOR THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP EXPECTED. BIGGEST QUESTION IN MODEL RUNS IS HOW FAR SOUTH FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH BEFORE STALLING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. GFS IS STRONGER WITH WAVE THAN ETA...BUT FURTHER NORTH WITH BOUNDARY. NATIONAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GOING WITH GFS STRENGTH AND ETA POSITION OF BOUNDARY. TRIED TO STAY CLOSE TO THIS CONCEPT...WHICH PLACES BOUNDARY ACROSS MIDDLE OF CWA ON SUNDAY. WENT WITH HEAVIEST POPS EITHER SIDE AND ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ON SUNDAY WITH SOUNDINGS HINTING AT A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY. ALSO KEPT MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MONDAY AS MODEL INDICATES PRECIP MAY CHANGE OVER BRIEFLY BEFORE ENDING. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS... 1030 PM EST THU JAN 1 2004 03Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS DOMINATING THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WAVY WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THIS LOW IS SWEEPING TOWARD EAST KENTUCKY. THIS FRONT WILL SCOUR OUT THE DRIER AIR AND QUICKLY MOISTEN UP OUR ENVIRONS WITH A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS ROLLING IN HERE AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS TIMING MATCHES UP WITH THE ZONES BUT WILL NEED TO ADD A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER BASED ON CURRENT LIGHTNING CHART. UPDATED GRIDS AND WEB GRAPHICS OUT SHORTLY...TEXT ZONES ALREADY OUT. && 443 PM EST THU JAN 1 2004 FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WARM SECTOR AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN UP THE ATMOSPHERE OVERNIGHT. AN ENTERING S/W COMBINED WITH A JET STREAK AS WELL AS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW A NICE SWATH OF RAIN TO DEVELOP AND MOVE TOWARDS THE CWA AFTER 06Z. THIS SHOULD LAST INTO THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE DYNAMICS LEAVE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT RELAXES SOMEWHAT. A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND HANGS IN THE VICINITY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON HANGING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY UP SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. UNSEASONABLY MILD AS WELL AS MOIST AIR WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE TIMING OF WAVES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT...AN OVERALL CLOUDY AND SHOWERY FORECAST IS IN THE CARDS...WITH THE HIGHER POPS CONCENTRATED CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...HIGHEST QPF REMAINS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...SO HYDRO PROBLEMS AT THIS POINT LOOK SLIM...HOWEVER IF FRONTAL BOUNDARY WERE TO SET UP FURTHER SOUTH...SOME CONCERN WOULD BE WARRANTED. EXTENDED...DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT...COLDER AIR COULD WORK ITS WAY IN BEFORE MOISTURE AXIS EXITS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SNOW AS A POSSIBILITY. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CONTROL UNDER A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. GFS TRIES TO BRING A MINOR S/W THROUGH AS CANADIAN VORTEX DAMPENS AND HEADS EAST...HOWEVER WITH LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...HAVE KEPT EXTENDED DRY FOR NOW AFTER MONDAY. && 1037 AM EST THU JAN 1 2004 WILL INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS SHOWERS ARE ALREADY BREAKING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL TN INTO WESTERN KY (DESPITE SFC DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 30S) WHERE STRONG 850MB MOISTURE ADVECTION IS TAKING PLACE. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION MOVES INTO EASTERN KY BY 21Z. ONLY OTHER CHANGE WILL BE TO REMOVE AFTERNOON WORDING OF WIND DIRECTION CHANGE. && 517 AM EST THU JAN 1 2004 HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT...WITH THE ONSET OF THE AREAS NEXT RAINMAKER. BY THIS AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STRETCHED WEST TO EAST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW OVER MISSOURI. BY LATE TONIGHT...LIFT IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL TRIGGER THE ONSET OF RAIN...FIRST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH DAWN. WENT ON THE DEFINITE SIDE OF THE POPS FENCE...WITH AVN AND ETA MOS POPS ANYWHERE FROM 81 TO 98 FOR THE CWA FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD...GOOD MODEL OUTPUT QPF COVERAGE...AND PLENTY OF OMEGA PLUS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BESIDES THAT...FEEL CONFIDENT WITH THIS SOLUTION. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MORE FOCUSED SFC SYSTEM EMERGES...AND BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE CWA...MEETS UP WITH PLENTIFUL JET LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND GOOD PW...FOCUSING 6 HR QPFS OF OVER 1 INCH TO EMERGE IN GFS OUTPUT. ALTHOUGH MAIN FORCING ONLY SKIRTS THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA...EFFECTING LMK AND ILN MORE THAN OUR CWA...FEEL THAT THIS IS DEFINITELY A FEATURE WORTH WATCHING IN FUTURE RUNS. A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK TO THE SFC LOW...COULD SPELL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A BIT MORE CONCERN OVER THE JKL CWA. ADJUSTED TEMPS PER NEW MOS GUIDANCE/ENV ADJUSTMENTS...BUT NO GREAT REVELATIONS IN THE NEW FORECAST PACKAGE...ASIDE FROM BACKSIDE OF THE AFORE MENTIONED LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM. BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON...TEMPERATURES LOOK AS THOUGH THEY SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH AT THE SFC TO MEAN RAINFALL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE CWA...WITH THE NORTHWEST POSSIBLY SEEING SNOW SHOWERS OR RAIN SHOWERS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .KY...NONE. && RAY/HYSELL
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 500 AM EST FRI JAN 2 2004 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-031100- BATH KY-BELL KY-BREATHITT KY-CLAY KY-ELLIOTT KY-ESTILL KY-FLEMING KY- FLOYD KY-HARLAN KY-JACKSON KY-JOHNSON KY-KNOTT KY-KNOX KY-LAUREL KY- LEE KY-LESLIE KY-LETCHER KY-MAGOFFIN KY-MARTIN KY-MCCREARY KY- MENIFEE KY-MONTGOMERY KY-MORGAN KY-OWSLEY KY-PERRY KY-PIKE KY- POWELL KY-PULASKI KY-ROCKCASTLE KY-ROWAN KY-WAYNE KY-WHITLEY KY- WOLFE KY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARBOURVILLE...BEATTYVILLE...BOONEVILLE... CAMPTON...FLEMINGSBURG...FRENCHBURG...HARLAN...HAZARD...HINDMAN... HYDEN...INEZ...IRVINE...JACKSON...LONDON...MANCHESTER...MCKEE... MIDDLESBORO...MONTICELLO...MOREHEAD...MOUNT STERLING... MOUNT VERNON...OWINGSVILLE...PAINTSVILLE...PIKEVILLE...PINEVILLE... PRESTONSBURG...SALYERSVILLE...SANDY HOOK...SOMERSET...STANTON... WEST LIBERTY...WHITESBURG...WHITLEY CITY AND WILLIAMSBURG 500 AM EST FRI JAN 2 2004 ...RAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA CAN EXPECT RAIN TODAY. WHILE MAJOR FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...THE PERSISTENT RAINFALL MAY CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS FOR LOW LYING AREAS OR AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA CAN EXPECT PERIODS OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE MAJOR FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...ANY PERSISTENT RAINFALL MAY CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS FOR LOW LYING AREAS OR AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS. RAY/HYSELL
The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 72 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 11:32 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Water was over United States Highway 460 at Town Branch Road. Water was also over the road at Hinkston Pike and West Locust Street.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2004Every state in 2004This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, January 2004
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5382386.