Hail in Kansas, May 29, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
304 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...
DWPTS FALLING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTING
MODELS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK WITH MOVING THE DRYLINE INTO AT LEAST
OUR ERN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. CURRENT GRIDS LOOK ON TRACK AND OTHER
THAN ADJUSTING THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PCPN AS THE EXACT LOCATION
OF THE DRY LINE BECOMES APPARENT NO LARGE CHANGES PLANNED TO THE
GRIDS OVERNIGHT. WILL BE ADDING SMALL POPS TO OUR WESTERN MOST CWA
AS FRONT ALREADY FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT MODELS HAD AT 12Z MOISTURE
POOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT MY GIVE RISE TO A FEW SHRA OR TSRA BUT THE
MAIN EXCITEMENT WILL BE IN THE EAST. HIGH DWPTS AND LARGE INSTAB
PRESENT IN THE EAST WARRANTS THE CONTINUED MENTION OF SEVERE WORDING
IN THE ZONES. 7H TEMPS AROUND 12C WHICH MAY CAP THINGS FOR A WHILE
BUT DO THINK WHEN CAP IS BROKEN RAPID DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY WITH
SHEAR SUPPORTING THE HAZARD OF TORNADOES. HWO HAS AN EXCELLENT
HANDLE WITH THIS.

AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS TO OUR EAST 5H -20 TO -22C COLD POOLS THEN
SWINGS ACROSS WESTERN KS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH 7H SHOWING
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN PLACE. WILL BE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC ON
CLOUD COVER AND RETAIN THE SMALL POPS IN THE NORTH UNTIL THIS WAVE
PASSES. DESPITE THE NW FLOW PRESENT WILL LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND 85H-7H TEMP PROGS. FOR MONDAY WILL REBOUND
TEMPERATURES AS WESTERLY FLOW IMPROVES THE DOWNSLOPE WARMING.
CURRENT GRIDS LOOK ON TRACK SO NOT MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS HERE. AS FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS WINDS TONIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS UP SOME WITH COOLER
TEMPS THE FOLLOWING NIGHT. GUIDANCE DOES NOT LOOK TERRIBLE AND WILL
STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TREND.

DAYS 3-7...
MADE VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING EXTENED AND AIDED WITH FIRST PERIOD
SEVERE WX POSSIBLITIES.  SHOULD HAVE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH THE WEEK. KEPT TEMPS CLOSE TO GOING NUMBERS BUT DID SLIGHTLY
RAISE LOWS FOR THE NORTHWEST CWA BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

DDC 55 76 49 81 / 00 00 00 00
GCK 54 74 48 79 / 00 00 00 00
EHA 53 77 48 81 / 20 00 00 00
LBL 55 77 49 81 / 00 00 00 00
HYS 56 74 48 77 / 30 20 00 00
P28 60 78 48 83 / 40 00 00 00
&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADV UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078
WIND ADV UNTIL 8 PM FOR KSZ031-046-065-066-079>081-089-090 TORNADO
WATCH UNTIL 11 PM FOR KSZ031-046-065-066-079>081-089-090 &&

 18/12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
512 AM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

KSZ030-031-045-046-064>066-078>081-088>090-301000-
BARBER-CLARK-COMANCHE-EDWARDS-ELLIS-FORD-HODGEMAN-KIOWA-NESS-PAWNEE-
PRATT-RUSH-STAFFORD-TREGO-
512 AM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING FROM HAYS TO KINSLEY TO COLDWATER AND POINTS
EAST. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED LATER
TODAY.  PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON.  THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER 7 PM CDT.  A WIND
ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION AFTER 2 PM CDT MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 FROM HAYS SOUTH TO COLDWATER.

KSZ043-044-061>063-074>077-084>087-301000-
FINNEY-GRANT-GRAY-HAMILTON-HASKELL-KEARNY-LANE-MEADE-MORTON-SCOTT-
SEWARD-STANTON-STEVENS-
512 AM CDT (412 AM MDT) SAT MAY 29 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RANGELAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE EXTREME CATEGORY
TODAY.  VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 15 PERCENT IS EXPECTED TODAY
ALONG WITH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
OUTDOOR BURNING OF ANY KIND IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

UMSCHEID