Tornadoes and Hail in Kansas, May 29 to 30, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
455 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING THE DRY LINE LIGHTING UP ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS ALONG AND WEST OF A ST. JOHN TO JUST WEST OF
MEDICINE LODGE LINE. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO A
MUCH MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WHICH WILL CAUSE THEM TO STRENGTHEN
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
MOST LIKELY AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HUTCHINSON TO HARPER LINE
BETWEEN 6 AND 7 PM AND NEWTON TO A WELLINGTON LINE BY 9 PM. THESE
STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY BECOME TORNADIC AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST AT
SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH.

COX
---------------------------------------------------------------------

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

FORECAST PROBLEM FOCUSED ON SVR WEATHER EVENT THRU TONIGHT.

FORECAST AREA PRESENTLY IN WAKE OF INITIAL SHORTWAVE...WEAK
SUBSIDENCE AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT YIELDING A STRENGTHENING CAP,
THOUGH BY NO MEANS UNBREAKABLE.  FULL SUNSHINE AND ADVECTION OF LOW
70S DEWPOINTS PRODUCING AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND WEAKENING
CAP.

OUR FOCUS IS ON NEXT WEAK WAVE APPROACHING TX/OK PANHANDLES...LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH FEATURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS WRN/CTRL KS LATER THIS
AFTN.  MODELS SHOW UPPER JET STREAK OVER NRN OK.  VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN GIVEN NEXT APPPROACHING WAVE
COMBINED WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IN WRN KS.  DRYLINE JUST E OF
DDC-AMA LINE WILL SURGE FURTHER EAST THIS AFTERNOON.  CONDITIONS
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR RAPID SEVERE T-STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRYLINE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS STARTING NEAR TRIPLE POINT N OF RSL
AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD ALONG DRYLINE.  ANTICIPATE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS, WHICH MAY BE SUSTAINED FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH LOWERING LCL HEIGHTS AND INCREASING SHEAR VIA LOW-LEVEL
JET AND BACKING SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF DRYLINE.  MAY SUBSEQUENTLY
SEE NEW DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING ALONG COLDFRONT AS IT MOVES SE
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.

PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS TO HAVE EVERYTHING WELL IN HAND.  FOR THIS
PACKAGE, DO NOT PLAN TO EXTEND WIND ADVISORY, THOUGH WINDS WILL BE
CLOSE TO CRITERIA DURING THE EVENING.  ALSO PLAN TO REMOVE LOW POPS
FOR WED/WED NGT WITH HIGH PRES OVER CTRL PLAINS AND FRONT IN SRN OK
PER LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.  ALSO PLAN TO ADD LOW POPS FOR ELEVATED
TSRA FRIDAY NIGHT.  NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED IN THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE.

WOLF
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA         64  80  53  80 /  50  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      63  79  52  80 /  40  10   0   0
NEWTON          64  80  52  80 /  50  10   0   5
ELDORADO        66  80  53  80 /  50  20   0   5
STROTHER FIELD  67  80  53  81 /  50  20   0   0
RUSSELL         58  77  50  76 /  40  10   0   5
GREAT BEND      59  78  50  77 /  30  10   0   0
SALINA          62  78  51  79 /  50  10   0   5
MCPHERSON       63  79  52  79 /  50  10   0   5
COFFEYVILLE     69  81  55  81 /  70  30  10  10
CHANUTE         69  80  54  80 /  70  30  10  10
IOLA            69  79  54  80 /  70  30  10  10
&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
542 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-301200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
542 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH 9 PM. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BECOME
TORNADIC AND MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING LONG TRACK
TORNADOES. THE STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND WEST
OF A I-35/I-135 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 6 AND 9 PM. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. MOVEMENT WILL BE EAST-NORTHEAST BETWEEN
25 AND 30 MPH. THE STORMS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL MOST LIKELY
PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS BETWEEN 9PM AND MIDNIGHT. DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME, THE STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE SEVERE AND
HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING LONG TRACK TORNADOES, LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. PERSONS SPOTTING THIS EVENING SHOULD BE ALERT THAT
THE CLOUD BASES WILL BE VERY LOW WHERE IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO SPOT
TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY LARGE ONES.

MORE SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BEHIND A
COLD FRONT AS IT SAGS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WOULD BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

IN ADDITION TO SEVERE STORMS, A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH 7 PM. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST WIND ADVISORY PRODUCT FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY, OVER
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 5PM AND
MIDNIGHT THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

LAWSON/COX

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-292230-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
457 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA IS ACTIVATING OUR SKYWARN
SPOTTER NETWORK.

A SKYWARN OPERATOR IS MONITORING AREA NETWORKS.

THE PRIMARY SKYWARN FREQUENCY IS 146.82 MHZ.

SECONDARY FREQUENCY ALSO BEING MONITORED IS 145.13 MHZ.