Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, June 2, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
253 AM CDT WED JUN 2 2004

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...
THE CHALLENGE THIS CYCLE WILL BE DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AS
WE TRY TO DIVINE ITS INFLUENCE ON HIGH BASED INSTABILITY AND
TEMPERATURES.

NO SURPRISES FOUND DURING DIAGNOSIS THIS MORNING AS THE BROAD WEAK
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO FEED THE MEAN EAST
COAST UPPER TROUGH WITH A SERIES OF FAST MOVING WAVES ALONG THE
UPPER BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE MODELS INITIALIZED REASONABLY WELL AND
ALL OF THEM FORECAST GRADUALLY HEIGHT RISES ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH DAY 2 WHICH WILL SERVE TO MAINTAIN A
WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER TOP OF
SOME VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SOME VERY HIGH BASED VIRGA SHOWERS CONTINUE ON RADAR BUT LITTLE OR
NONE OF IT REACHING TERRA FIRMA AND AM THUS RELUCTANT TO EXPAND POPS
ANY FOR TODAY AND WILL LEAVE THE LOW POPS ACROSS THE CWA FOR TONIGHT
AS ALL MODELS SUGGEST SOMETHING FIRING UP AGAINST THE HIGH TERRAIN
IN SOUTHERN COLORADO AND WORKING EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE PANHANDLES. THE GFS HAS BLOWN UP A HUGE
AREA OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS, BUT BELIEVE THAT IS MAINLY
FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK INTO THE ARAKAWA-SCHUBERT SCHEME. ON
THURSDAY THE SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD FINALLY BRING SOME
MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH AS THE MODELS THUS CORRESPONDINGLY
HIGHER POPS SEEM IN ORDER.

HAVE LEFT TEMPERATURES PRETTY MUCH ALONE. HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED BY
VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER IN THE UPPER BAROCLINIC ZONE TODAY
AND TOMORROW. DRY AIR TONIGHT WILL ALLOW GOOD COOLING BUT INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOMORROW NIGHT WILL INHIBIT THE COOLING. ALL THIS
WAS PRETTY WELL COVERED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER AND HAVE LEFT IT
IN PLACE.

DAYS 3-7...
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION IN THE PERTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.  ALL THE MODELS
SEEM TO BE LATCHING ONTO THE IDEA OF A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEST-NORTHWEST
PATTERN THROUGH THE DAY 5 PERIOD.  ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS TEXAS WILL EVENTUALLY WORK NORTH INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS LEESIDE PRESSURES LOWER IN THE HIGH ZONAL
INDEX REGIME ACROSS THE ROCKIES.  INITIALLY, CONVECTION WILL BE
MAINLY TIED TO MOIST UPSLOPE PROCESSES TO OUR WEST OVER COLORADO,
HOWEVER, AS A S/WV TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND,
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT SHOULD LEAD TO ENHANCED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
FLUX CONVERGENCE AND SUBSEQUENT CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS.. LEADING
TO POTENTIAL MCSS.

I HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO CHANCE POPS FOR
EVERYBODY, JUST 30S FOR NOW, BUT WILL LIKELY NEED TO INCREASE THE
PROBABILITIES AS SIGNALS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES BECOME
CLEARER.  WEAK SYNOPTIC FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL PLAY A
ROLE IN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIP INTO SUNDAY, IT WOULD APPEAR,
AND THUS HAVE PUT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR
STARTERS.  A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST STATES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL RAISE DOWNSTREAM
MIDDLE-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS, AND REFOCUSING FRONTOGENESIS
FARTHER NORTH.  EARLY NEXT WEEK WOULD APPEAR TO BE DRY UNTIL THIS
LARGE SCALE TROUGH...IN WHATEVER FORM IT MAY BE IN...MOVES FARTHER
INLAND INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

DDC 81 56 82 60 / 20 20 20 30
GCK 82 54 83 58 / 20 20 20 30
EHA 84 56 84 55 / 20 20 30 30
LBL 83 57 83 59 / 20 20 20 30
HYS 81 54 81 59 / 00 00 10 30
P28 82 58 82 62 / 10 20 10 30
&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.

&&

JOHNSON/UMSCHEID