Tornadoes and Hail in Kansas, June 14, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
229 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY.

WEAK SURFACE FRONT THAT WAS PUSHED SOUTH BY THE WAVE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES HAS MORE OR LESS STALLED OUT FROM SOUTH OF HYS DOWN TO AROUND
EHA. MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO MIX OUT HERE AT DDC WITH THE DEWPOINT
DROPPING 9F DURING THE PAST HOUR. CONVECTIVE PLUMES NOTICEABLE ON
VIS IMAGERY ARE POPPING UP ALONG THE FRONT, BUT ARE VERY TALL ATTM.
700MB TEMPS OF 12 TO 13C ARE HOLDING BACK THINGS FOR THE TIME
BEING, HOWEVER WITH TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT/DRYLINE HEATING UP TO
THE MID 90S NOW, IT MAY NOT HOLD OFF LONG. FOR THE FORECAST TONIGHT
HAVE WENT WITH 20 TO 30 POPS WITH THE HIGHER POPS IN THE SE ZONES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT/DRYLINE. CONVECTIVE BUBBLES ARE GOING UP OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN AND I EXPECT THIS WILL CONTINUE AS MOISTURE GETS
ADVECTED UPSLOPE. WITH THE LLJ INTENSIFYING DURING THE EVENING THIS
MAY KEEP BOTH THE CONVECTION THAT FIRES OVER OUR AREA AND OUT WEST
FROM DYING OUT. SO WILL KEEP POPS GOING THRU THE NIGHT.

MID LEVEL TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM ON TUESDAY AS THE EML GETS
ADVECTED EASTWARD OVER WESTERN KS. 700MB TEMPS OF AROUND 14-17C AND
1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES OF 585DAM TELL ME THAT THE CAP SHOULD
KEEP A LID ON THINGS DURING THE DAY. EXPECT A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE
CWA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WINDS COULD REACH NEAR
ADVISORY CRITERIA. TOMORROW NIGHT, AS THE SECOND STRONGER PUSH OF
COOLER AIR COMES PLOWING SOUTH CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE ALONG IT AND
GRADUALLY MOVE INTO OUR AREA. WILL TREND POPS UPWARD TOWARD 12Z AND
THEN TREND BACK DOWN AFTERWARD. HOWEVER, WITH MESOSCALE PROCESSES
DOMINATING, IT WILL BE HARD TO PIN DOWN.

EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPS ON WED AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO THE MID TEENS
WITH A NE WIND AND PROBABLY SOME CLOUD COVER LET AROUND. CURRENT
GRID ACTUALLY HAD THIS PINNED DOWN WELL AND WILL BASICALLY LEAVE IT
ALONE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WILL KEEP POPS GOING WED AS THE
WEAK WAVE IN THE SW INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.

DAYS 3-7...

DIAGNOSTIC DATA FROM THE CDC AND CPC WEB SITES INDICATE THE FORECAST
AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE IS ON
TRACK AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SOLUTIONS OF ALL THE MODELS AND THE
ENSEMBLES. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LARGE AREA OF NEARLY STATIONARY
AND QUITE PERSISTENT TROPICAL CONVECTION ALONG THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN 80E AND 120E. ADDITIONALLY, GLOBAL AVERAGE
ANGULAR MOMENTUM TENDENCIES ARE INCREASING BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY
APPEARS TO REMAIN IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WITH A SECONDARY MAXIMA
BETWEEN THE EQUATOR AND 30N IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE.

AS A RESULT OF THE ABOVE PATTERN WILL EXPECT A CONTINUED FAIRLY
ROBUST HUDSONS BAY UPPER VORTEX WITH WAVES DIGGING DOWN THE WEST
SIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. EACH SUCCESSIVE WAVE
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD SURGE WITH ASSOCIATED ELEVATED
CONVECTION AND SOME MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REGION. THE
REAL TRICK WILL BE GUESSING WHEN EACH MINOR ALOFT WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE PATTERN. THE GOING FORECAST HAS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WHICH APPEARS REALISTIC AT THE MOMENT.
HOWEVER, WITH CONTINUED PERIODS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ABOVE THE
COLD DOME WHICH SHOULD REINFORCE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR, DO NOT
EXPECT THE FRONT TO RECOVER BACK TO THE NORTH ANY TIME SOON. THE 06Z
GFS BRINGS A VERY VIGOROUS WAVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND DEVELOPS A HUGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS KANSAS NORTH OF
THE FRONT WITH IT.

ON THE OTHER HAND, HPC FAVORS A MORE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
WHICH APPEARS TO BE IN DIRECT CONTRAST TO THE INDICATIONS IN THE
DIAGNOSTIC DATA. WILL STICK WITH THE DIAGNOSTICS ON THIS ONE AND
LOOK FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF CONVECTION ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THIS IS PRETTY MUCH IN LINE WITH THE GFS
WHICH, STRANGELY ENOUGH, THE HPC HAS GIVEN THE NOD TO. THANKS TO ALL
SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR EXCELLENT COLLABORATION AND THE REALIZATION
THAT COLDER AIR IS, INDEED, HEADED OUR WAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

DDC 68 97 66 76 / 30 00 40 40
GCK 66 97 62 75 / 30 00 40 30
EHA 65 94 63 79 / 20 00 30 30
LBL 66 97 65 80 / 30 00 30 30
HYS 67 95 65 75 / 30 10 40 40
P28 70 95 69 81 / 30 00 40 40
&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
&&

LACY/JOHNSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
507 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-151000-
ELLIS-FINNEY-HAMILTON-HODGEMAN-KEARNY-LANE-NESS-PAWNEE-RUSH-SCOTT-
TREGO-
507 AM CDT (407 AM MDT) MON JUN 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A JUST A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF HAYS TO LARNED LINE. AFTER 4 PM
CDT, ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM, SOME WITH THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING
NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE WILL A CHANCE FOR MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING NORTH OF A SYRACUSE TO LARNED LINE. THE PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS, ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS.
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ARE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS LESS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 4 AND 11 PM CDT ALONG AND EAST OF A
HAYS TO LARNED LINE.

KSZ066-079>081-089-090-151000-
BARBER-COMANCHE-EDWARDS-KIOWA-PRATT-STAFFORD-
507 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A JUST A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF KINSLEY TO COLDWATER LINE.
AFTER 4 PM CDT, ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM, SOME WITH THE CAPABILITY
OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

CONDITIONS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING, AND THUS
THERE IS ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK FOR STRONG STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, BUT AT THIS TIME THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS SMALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 4 AND 11 PM CDT ALONG AND EAST OF A
KINSLEY TO COLDWATER LINE.

KSZ074>078-084>088-151000-
CLARK-FORD-GRANT-GRAY-HASKELL-MEADE-MORTON-SEWARD-STANTON-STEVENS-
507 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TSB