Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, June 14 to 15, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
210 PM MDT MON JUN 14 2004

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON CHANCES OF PRECIP TONIGHT AND
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
BEFORE FOCUS SHIFTS ON LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...POCKET OF 700-500MB MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE FRONT RANGE TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS UP AND
INTERACTS WITH THE EASTWARD MOVING DISTURBANCE TO CREATE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHEST CHANCE PER LATEST MM5/18Z
ETA/GFS AND HPC QPF WILL BE OVER THE EAST/NORTHEAST CWA. MINS A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER FLOW NEARLY PARALLEL TO IT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES AS WELL LEADING TO TRAINING OF CELLS
WITH STORM MOTIONS TO THE NORTHEAST AT A RATHER SLOW CLIP. THIS COULD
LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY BENEFICIAL RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE IN
THE 90S AND MINS UNDER THE SOUPY AIRMASS AND PRECIP ABOVE NORMAL. AS
IS THE CASE WITH PRECIP THAT LOOK PROMISES IN THIS AREA...I MUST
FIND SOMETHING TO LATCH ONTO FOR IT NOT TO HAPPEN. IN THIS CASE...WE
WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW MUCH CONVECTION OVER THE GULF STATES ROBS
OUR MOISTURE. REALISTICALLY...I THINK WE WILL GET IT.

WEDNESDAY...LOOKING FOR PRECIP EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE BEING PUSHED
SOUTH AND OUT OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH. RIGHT REAR QUAD OF UPPER JET FAVORS LINGERING PRECIP OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER UNDER THE MODIFIED AIRMASS.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR RETURN
FLOW ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. CENTER OF COOL AIRMASS AND HIGH PRESSURE
FAVORS CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW ROTATES AROUND HUDSON BAY
LOW SUGGESTING THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
PATTER ACROSS OUR AREA. WITH THAT IN MIND...MUCH OF THE PLAINS WILL
ENJOY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...MEX AND ENSEMBLE MOS
GUIDANCE VERY CLOSE TO EACHOTHER...LENDING SOME CONFIDENCE TO ABOVE
MENTIONED SCENARIO. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK RATHER LIMITED GIVEN
MOISTURE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA FROM THE STABLE AIRMASS OVERHEAD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.

&&

DDT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
310 PM MDT MON JUN 14 2004

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-151200-
CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-DECATUR-DUNDY-GOVE-GRAHAM-GREELEY-HITCHCOCK-
KIT CARSON-LOGAN-NORTON-RAWLINS-RED WILLOW-SHERIDAN-SHERMAN-THOMAS-
WALLACE-WICHITA-YUMA-
310 PM MDT (410 PM CDT) MON JUN 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OFF THE FRONT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
ARE WEAKENING A BIT AS THEY MOVE INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO WHERE
DRIER AIR EXISTS. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS TONIGHT THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR GENERATING THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INTERACT WITH THE JET TO REINVIGORATE THE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH BE OVER FAR
EASTERN COLORADO AND ALONG THE NEBRASKA KANSAS BORDER. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL IN THE
VICINITY OF A MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO GOODLAND KANSAS TO FLAGLER COLORADO
LINE. BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ERUPT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY ITSELF. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
INTO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE CELL TRAINING...OR THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING OVER THE SAME AREA. THIS WILL LAST WELL INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE AREA HAS BEEN UNDER DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR
QUITE SOME TIME THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THAT COULD FALL IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WOULD PROMOTE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREAMS...
CREEKS...AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DDT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
506 PM MDT MON JUN 14 2004

COZ090>092-KSZ001-002-013>016-027>029-041-042-150500-
CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-GOVE-GRAHAM-GREELEY-KIT CARSON-LOGAN-RAWLINS-
SHERIDAN-SHERMAN-THOMAS-WALLACE-WICHITA-YUMA-
506 PM MDT (606 PM CDT) MON JUN 14 2004

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 472 IS IN EFFECT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AND FAR EAST COLORADO THROUGH 11 PM MDT
(MIDNIGHT CDT)...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN KANSAS...CHEYENNE...RAWLINS...
SHERMAN...THOMAS...SHERIDAN...GRAHAM...WALLACE...LOGAN...GOVE...
GREELEY AND WICHITA.

THE WATCH ALSO INCLUDES YUMA...KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN
FAR EAST COLORADO.

HAIL UP TO ONE INCH...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.

RJC