Hail and Damaging Wind in Kansas, August 8, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
115 PM CDT SUN AUG 8 2004

.DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERNS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS EVENING...POTENTIAL RAIN EVENT TUESDAY...AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS. SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG
WERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A VERY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/CANADIAN BORDER
MOVING TO THE EAST...ALSO NOTED WAS A BIT OF DRYING ON THE SOUTHWEST
SIDE WHICH CORRESPONDED WELL WITH A JET MAX IN THE 12Z UPPER AIR
CHARTS AT 500 MB AND 300MB. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS SEEN BUILDING ALONG
THE WEST COAST...AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC
SLOWLY RETROGRADED TO THE WEST.

MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL
ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO ORGANIZE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS...AND MAY BECOME SEVERE ESPECIALLY IN FAR SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS.  THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
THIS EVENING...AND STALL OUT ACROSS KANSAS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A
LARGE TROUGH IS CARVED OUT OVER THE MIDWEST. MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
SEEN ON THE 310K AND 315K SURFACES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE RECORD MINIMUM MAXIMUMS FOR THE DATE.
THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND THERE WILL BE A SLOW MODERATION TO
THE TEMPERATURES AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

NELSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
200 PM CDT SUN AUG 8 2004

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-091200-
ADAMS-BUFFALO-CLAY-DAWSON-FILLMORE-FRANKLIN-FURNAS-GOSPER-GREELEY-
HALL-HAMILTON-HARLAN-HOWARD-JEWELL-KEARNEY-MERRICK-MITCHELL-NANCE-
NUCKOLLS-OSBORNE-PHELPS-PHILLIPS-POLK-ROOKS-SHERMAN-SMITH-THAYER-
VALLEY-WEBSTER-YORK-
200 PM CDT SUN AUG 8 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MOSTLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GENEVA TO CAMBRIDGE. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GID (ALL LOWER CASE)

JCB