Damaging Wind in Kansas, August 30, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
336 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2004

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT:
WEAK SFC TROUGH ORIENTED EAST-WEST IS WASHING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS. CONVERGENCE IS EXTREMELY WEAK, AND MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DESPITE WEAKENING CAP AND MODEST
INSTABILITY. SO LEFT TONIGHTS FORECAST DRY. WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT
BL FLOW, PATCHY 1-3SM FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WELL EAST OF THE
TURNPIKE. THINKING ETA IS UNDERDOING BL MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS, AS
CURRENT SFC DEWPOINTS ARE 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN ETA.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT:
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MID-UPPER RIDGING, TUESDAY TEMPS WILL
WARM INTO THE 80S-LOW 90S. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT, WHICH MAY ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP/MOVE AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHERN NE/EXTREME NORTHERN KS.
HOWEVER, MID-UPPER RIDGING WILL PRECLUDE ANY DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
CWA.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
MID-UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE, WARMING TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES
AND KEEPING THINGS DRY.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT:
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE EJECTING ONTO THE PLAINS
FROM THE BASE OF THE WESTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH. FEATURE DOESNT
LOOK VERY SUBSTANTIAL TO PRODUCE PRECIP, SO ONLY INSERTED SILENT 10
POPS.

FRIDAY-MONDAY:
12Z GFS SLOWED DOWN THE LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND UPPER PATTERN AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE, COMPARED TO LAST NIGHTS 00Z RUN. THE SLOWER
SOLUTION MESHES BETTER WITH THE ECMWF, UKMET, CANADIAN, AND NOGAPS
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF EJECTING WESTERN
TROUGH. IF CURRENT SCENARIO PLAYS OUT, COULD BE SOME SEVERE WEATHER
TO DEAL WITH. WITH SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS, FRONT MAY NOT CLEAR
SOUTHEAST KANSAS UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, ATTM ONLY HAVE
PRECIP GOING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  91  64  91 /   5   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      65  92  65  92 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          65  91  64  91 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        64  90  64  90 /   5   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   65  90  64  91 /   5   0   0   0
RUSSELL         64  92  65  93 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      63  92  65  93 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          65  94  65  94 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       65  91  65  91 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     63  88  63  88 /   5   0   0   0
CHANUTE         62  88  63  88 /   5   0   0   0
IOLA            62  87  63  87 /   5   0   0   0
&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

21/KLEINSASSER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ADDED FOG POTENTIAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
427 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2004

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-311200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
427 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE 9 PM,
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM GREAT BEND TO
MCPHERSON TO MARION. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER, SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP.

ADDITIONALLY, PATCHY FOG MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES AFTER 3 AM ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS, GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
EUREKA TO HOWARD TO SEDAN. DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RETURN TO CENTRAL KANSAS FRIDAY EVENING, THEN
SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. AS OF THIS WRITING, IT APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD TARGET CENTRAL KANSAS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. ONE IS URGED TO LISTEN FOR SUBSEQUENT HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOKS, ESPECIALLY THOSE ISSUED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, SKYWARN
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

ES/CJ/ADK