Hail in Kansas, August 24, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
321 PM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FCST CONCERN WL BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR THE FIRST FEW PERIODS.

TNGT: WOULD EXPECT SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO GET GOING OR WL BE
GOING SOON AFTER THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER CENTRAL KS. THIS IS
WHERE OUTFLOW WL BE INTERSECTING A MORE SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT. THE
MAIN INHIBITOR WL BE OVERCOMING THE CAP. FEEL THAT THE APPROACHING
SPEED MAX FROM THE SW AND THE PLACEMENT OF CENTRAL KS IN THE
DIVERGENT REGION OF THIS FEATURE WL PROVIDE ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING
TO OVERCOME CAP OVER CENTRAL KS. SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT
COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY SHUD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A SVR
THREAT. A TOR THREAT WL ALSO EXIST NEAR SFC BOUNDARY WHERE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WL BE MAXIMIZED.

ANOTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE CONVECTION TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY LATE, WL BE
OVER SE KS. THIS IS WHERE GOOD 850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED. ALSO LOOKS BE BE SOME GOOD UPGLIDE IN THE
315K LAYER SETTING UP OVER SE KS OVERNIGHT. AGAIN, THERE WL BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY FOR POSSIBLE SVR CONVECTION.

WED-WED NGT: UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WED AS
A NUMBER OF WEAK WAVES TRAVERSE THE AREA. UPPER JET MAX IS FORECAST
TO BE SITUATED IN VICINITY OF N TX/OK. THIS WL AGAIN PLACE MUCH OF
SE KS IN THE PREFERRED REGION OF THIS JET. A LOOSE DRY LINE WL ALSO
BE A PLAYER FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WED AS IT MIXES EASTWARD. GIVEN
THE PROJECTED PLACEMENT OF THIS DRYLINE BY WED AFTERNOON, THE BEST
CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD BE GENERALLY EAST OF A ICT TO SLN LINE.
JUST LIKE THIS EVENING, SHEAR WL NOT BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY WL MAKE UP FOR IT. SO AGAIN, SVR STORMS WL BE
POSSIBLE. ONCE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GETS GOING, WOULD NOT EXPECT
IT TO BUILD TOO FAR SW AS 850MB WINDS WL BE PUMPING-IN DRIER AIR. SO
THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WED NGT WL BE OVER EXTREME SE KS.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO, WED LOOKS PRETTY TOASTY WITH UPPER 90S POSSIBLE
OVER SC KS WITH MID 90S OVER SE KS WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE WL BE.
THE HIGHEST HEAT INDICES WED WL BE OVER SC KS WHERE AT OR ABOVE 100
WL BE POSSIBLE.

THU-FRI:

FOR NOW WL LEAVE THU DRY AS THERE IS A LACK OF A DECENT SHORT WAVE
TO GET THINGS GOING. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REALLY NEVER LEAVES
THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. ATTM IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCES OF CONVECTION WL BE NE OF THE AREA, BUT WL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THIS PERIOD AS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF POPS ARE INSERTED
FOR SE KS. SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WL COMMENCE ITS JOURNEY SOUTH ON FRI
AND BY FRI NGT THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CENTRAL KS.
THEREFORE WL KEEP POPS OVER CENTRAL KS FOR FRI AFTERNOON AND NGT.

FOR TEMPS, THU LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SCORCHER WITH UPPER 90S DEFINITELY
A POSSIBILITY FOR MUCH OF SC AND CENTRAL KS. THE HIGHEST HEAT
INDICES FOR THU AFTERNOON WL BE OVER SE KS WHERE AGAIN AT OR ABOVE
100 WL BE POSSIBLE.

SAT-TUE:
DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED. COLD FRONT
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO SWING THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY SAT
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP. GIVEN THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS, HAVE A
FEELING THE FRONT MAY COME THROUGH A BIT FASTER. HOWEVER, SHUD BE
SOME POST FRONTAL PRECIP WITH ITS PASSAGE SO WL KEEP POPS CWA WIDE
ON SAT. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS SAT IS EXPECTED TO BE CONSIDERABLY
COOLER ALONG WITH SUN. TEMPS WL BE CREEPING CLOSER TO NORMAL TOWARD
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  96  71  98 /  10  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      72  96  70  98 /  20  10  10  10
NEWTON          72  95  70  96 /  20  20  10  10
ELDORADO        73  95  71  97 /  20  20  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  98  71  98 /  10  20  10  10
RUSSELL         67  94  66  98 /  30  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      68  95  67  99 /  20  10  10  10
SALINA          72  98  70 100 /  30  20  10  10
MCPHERSON       71  98  70  97 /  20  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     74  93  74  96 /  30  20  20  10
CHANUTE         73  92  73  96 /  30  20  20  10
IOLA            73  92  73  96 /  30  20  20  10
&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

7/LAWSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1210 PM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-251200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1210 PM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT, FOR AREAS MAINLY EAST OF THE TURNPIKE AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 56. WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LAYERS WILL KEEP A CAP ON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR MOST THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT AS
THE CAP WEAKENS THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.  ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE AND SHEAR
PROFILES SUGGEST THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES DEVELOP, COULD
BECOME SEVERE, WITH THE MAIN RISK BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS, BUT A FEW TORNADOES COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS, WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS, MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THE TYPE AND MAGNITUDE
OF ANY RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. LISTEN TO LATER FORECASTS AND
OUTLOOKS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING, ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND A PORTION OF CENTRAL
KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

KED/KETCHAM