Hail in Kansas, April 20, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
236 PM CDT TUE APR 20 2004

.DISCUSSION...

MAJORITY OF THIS FCST PACKAGE WAS SPENT ON TRYING TO FIGURE OUT THE
FIRST FEW DAYS AND SVR STORM POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AS WELL AS THU
AND THU NGT

TNGT: MOST OF THE TNGT FCST WL DEPEND ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE DURING
THE 4PM TO 6PM TIME FRAME. AS I AM WRITING THIS THERE ARE A COUPLE
FEATURES TO NOTE. FIRST OF ALL AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM
ROUGHLY HUT TO EMP. ALSO A SFC WIND SHIFT LINE EXTENDED FROM NEAR
GBD TO NW OK. THIS WIND SHIFT LINE WL LIKELY FORM MORE OF A DRY LINE
BUT AT THE TIME OF WRITING THIS THE DRYLINE WAS STILL GETTING ITS
ACT TOGETHER. THE HINDERING FACTOR SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN THE
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD OVER ALMOST ENTIRE CWA. IF STORMS FIRE THEY WL
MOST LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE TURN PIKE AS THIS WIND
SHIFT/DRY LINE MAKES ITS WAY INTO SE KS, WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WL BE LOCATED. SVR STORMS WL BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR, BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
SYNOPTICALLY EVIDENT TOR DAY. IF A TOR DEVELOPS IT WOULD NEED A SFC
FEATURE TO ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR. WITH THE OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY LINGERING AROUND, THIS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EARLY
THIS EVENING. A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNDOWN THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF CWA.

WED-WED NGT: A BOUNDARY WL BE SITUATED THROUGH EASTERN OK WED
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT
WED AFTERNOON. PUT A SLGT CHANGE IN FOR THE FEW COUNTIES IN SE KS IN
CASE SOME OF THIS BLEEDS OVER. PRECIP CHANCES WL BE ON THE INCREASE
WED NGT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ENHANCES WITH AN UPPER WAVE SINKING OUT
OF THE PACIFIC NW. THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 300-305K LAYER WL
BE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF KS. BUT WL KEEP POPS IN CWA
WIDE AS THETA-E ADVECTION BLANKETS THE AREA.

THU-FRI: THU AND THU NGT LOOK TO BE ACTIVE ACROSS THE PLAINS. BY THU
18Z A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER WAVE WL BE SITUATED OVER NORTHERN CO
PLACING MUCH OF KS IN THE DIFFLUENT REGION OF THE UPPER JET. AT THE
SFC A WARM FRONT WL BE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY WITH A DRYLINE
BULGING ACROSS CENTRAL OK. WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP EITHER
ALONG ONE OF THESE TWO SFC FEATURES OR BOTH. THIS ACTIVITY WL
CONTINUE INTO THU NGT AS AN MCS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AS A 90 KTS
UPPER JET NOSES INTO SW KS PLACING THIS AREA IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION.

SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK NE THOUGH EASTERN KANSAS FRI PLACING CWA IN THE
WRAP AROUND REGION OF THIS LOW. THEREFORE DID KEEP SOME POPS IN FOR
FRI WITH SVR STORMS NOT EXPECTED.

SAT-TUE:
DID NOT CHANGE A WHOLE LOT FROM PREV FCST WITH REGARDS TO THE
EXTENDED FCST. CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOW FOR THESE PERIODS AS THERE
ARE SOME SMALL DIFFERENCES WITH THE MED RANGE MODELS. THE MAIN
MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP SUN INTO MON WHEN THE 00Z GFS HAS A RIDGE
SITUATED OVER THE WEST COAST. MEANWHILE THE ECM TRIES TO SNEAK A
VERY WEAK UPPER LOW UNDER THIS RIDGE. BECAUSE OF THIS THE GFS ALSO
HAS A STRONG DOWNSTREAM TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS THROUGH THE CWA BY 00Z
MON.  SO FOR NOW WL LEAVE EXTENDED DRY AS BEST UPPER ENERGY STAYS
NORTH OF CWA. FOR TEMPS STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL. THE GFS IS
TRYING TO COOL THINGS DOWN MORE THAN THE ECM AS IT BRING SOME COLDER
AIR DOWN SAT NGT AND THEN AGAIN MON NGT. AM NOT GOING TO TOTALLY BUY
INTO THIS UNTIL THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA         50  73  51  66 /  10  20  30  40
HUTCHINSON      49  72  50  65 /  10  10  30  50
NEWTON          50  73  50  65 /  10  10  30  50
ELDORADO        50  73  51  66 /  10  20  30  40
STROTHER FIELD  51  74  53  68 /  10  20  30  40
RUSSELL         45  71  46  62 /   5  10  30  60
GREAT BEND      46  71  47  63 /   5  10  30  60
SALINA          48  71  48  64 /  10  10  30  60
MCPHERSON       48  72  49  65 /  10  10  30  50
COFFEYVILLE     53  76  55  72 /  40  20  30  40
CHANUTE         52  75  52  70 /  40  20  20  40
IOLA            52  74  52  69 /  40  20  20  40
&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...TORNADO WATCH OUT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS UNTIL 8 PM CDT
&&

7/LAWSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
315 PM CDT TUE APR 20 2004

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-211200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
315 PM CDT TUE APR 20 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS SOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE EAST OF THE
KANSAS TURNPIKE.

AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND DRY LINE SLIDE EAST THIS AFTERNOON,
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.  INITIALLY A COUPLE
WEAK TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNSET. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR LARGE HAIL. THE PRIME
LOCATION FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN AN AREA TO THE SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 54 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 99.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A DRY LINE LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
NARROWED DOWN WITH ADDITIONAL FORECASTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

CARUSO/CHANCE/LAWSON