Hail in Iowa, May 24, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
200 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

.DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING IN THE
NORTHEAST HAS PRETTY MUCH MOVED EAST OF THE AREA AND NOW WAITING
FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

18Z ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH WARM
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW INTO SERN NEBRASKA NEAR LNK INTO SWRN
IA WITH SURFACE TROF FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. SURFACE
MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDS INTO SERN NEB WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED
INTO THE 70S AT BIE AND FNB. NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA REMAINS UNDER
EXTENSIVE BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS.

ENTIRE CWA CURRENTLY UNDER SPC WATCHES WITH ERN HALF ALSO UNDER FFA
THROUGH TONIGHT. MAY NEED TO ADJUST TIMING OF STORM EVENT A BIT WITH
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY EAST OF THE AREA
BY MID EVENING AS FRONT PUSHES INTO NRN KS AND NRN MO WITH FOCUS
SHIFTING TO THAT AREA. WILL SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP PRIOR TO ISSUANCE
BEFORE DECIDING ON ANY ADJUSTMENT TO FLOOD WATCH.

OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE TO REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 4 AM TUE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
GAGE TO THURSTON COUNTY.
IA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 4 AM TUE ALL COUNTIES.

&&

NOTE...EFFECTIVE 1200 UTC JUNE 8TH THE AWIPS PRODUCT IDENTIFIER
/PID/ FOR THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION ISSUED BY OMAHA WFO WILL
CHANGE TO OMAAFDOAX.  THE WMO CODE WILL REMAIN FXUS63 KOAX.

FOBERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1050 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-242330-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-BUTLER-CASS-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-DOUGLAS-
FREMONT IA-GAGE-HARRISON IA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LANCASTER-MADISON-
MILLS IA-MONONA IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-PIERCE-
PLATTE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
SHELBY IA-STANTON-THURSTON-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
1050 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWESTERN IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. THE HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING. THE MAIN TORNADO THREAT AREA IS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT
COLUMBUS TO TEKAMAH AND ONAWA IOWA...ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF A WARM
FRONT THAT IS MOVING INTO THE AREA. NORTH OF THAT LINE...THE MAIN
THREAT IS LARGE HAIL...BUT TORNADOES ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

VERY UNSTABLE AIR WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS LIFTED NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT SUPERCELL STORMS ARE
LIKELY.

DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAIN AND ONGOING RIVER FLOODING...ADDITIONAL
RAIN MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND INCREASE ONGOING RIVER FLOODING.
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. IF STORMS
DEVELOP...THEY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK...
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND ALSO SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. FUTURE OUTLOOKS
WILL ADDRESS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE ALERT AND READY FOR ACTIVATION.
CONFERENCE CALLS FOR EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND MEDIA WILL BE HELD AT
NOON FOR GROUP A...AT 1210 PM GROUP B AND AT 1220 PM FOR GROUP C.

MILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
338 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0332 PM     HAIL             3 NE DUNBAR             40.70N 95.99W
05/24/2004  0.88 INCH        OTOE               NE   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

MEB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
352 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0352 PM     HAIL             WESTON                  41.19N 96.74W
05/24/2004  0.75 INCH        SAUNDERS           NE   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

MEB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
357 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0342 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N DUNBAR              40.68N 96.03W
05/24/2004  70 MPH           OTOE               NE   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

MEB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
359 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     HAIL             WESTON                  41.19N 96.74W
05/24/2004  0.75 INCH        SAUNDERS           NE   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

MEB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
404 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0359 PM     HAIL             WESTON                  41.19N 96.74W
05/24/2004  1.00 INCH        SAUNDERS           NE   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

MEB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
408 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0336 PM     HAIL             1 N DUNBAR              40.68N 96.03W
05/24/2004  0.88 INCH        OTOE               NE   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

MEB