Hail in Iowa, May 19, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1020 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2004

.DISCUSSION...

LO LVL MOISTR/CLDS ARE PRETTY DEEP OVER MOST OF AREA AS EVIDENCED BY
NMRS PIREPS AND REPORTS OF A LTL DRZL OR MIST AS IT HAS BEEN TERMED.
THIS WILL PUT THE CLAMPS ON SKIES BCMG PTCLDY MOST OF AREA THIS AFTN
AND ALSO WITH THE OBVIOUS RESULT OF NOT LETTING TEMPS GET TOO WARM.
HAVE ADJUSTED ACCORDNGLY IN UPDATE. THIS MAY ALSO PUT A SIGNIFICANT
CLAMP ON TSTM DVLPMNT ESPLY SINCE SPC HAS BEEN BASING A LOT OF THE
MDT RISK POTENTIAL ON SFC BASED DVLPMNT THIS AFTN. HAVE DONE NOTHING
THERE XCP CLEAN OUT MRNG TSTMS IN THE N...SINCE OTRW WE HAVE ONLY A
SLGT CHC TSTMS FAR W THIS AFTN AND HOLD IT OFF REST OF AREA TILL
THIS EVE. SEE NO NEED TO KNOCK DOWN EVE POTENTIAL AT THIS POINT
SINCE CLRNG CUD GET THINGS GOING OUT W BY END OF THE DAY...AND THERE
CUD BE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTN AS WELL...WITH LOTS OF POTENTIAL IF
STORMS DO GET GOING. BUT FOR THIS AFTN MAINLY A LOT OF CLDS AND
COOLER TEMPS THAN WE HAD IN FCST ERYR.

&&

.FSD...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

WILLIAMS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1200 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-201200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR
OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WILL BRING A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
HEATING AND PREVENT STORMS FROM DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THIS
AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER IN
SOUTH DAKOTA. THESE STORMS WOULD THEN MOVE OVER THE REST OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING.

THE EXTENT OF THE AREA THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THUNDERSTORMS IS
STILL UNCERTAIN BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED HEATING.

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF STORMS DEVELOP.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM INTO A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST IOWA THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS
BECOMING THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS WELL. AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL THE
EXACT LOCATION AND MOST LIKELY TYPE OF SEVERE WEATHER. IN
ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE IN
THE DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 TIME FRAME...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BE IN THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 6 PM OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 8 PM OVER SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FSD. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.