Hail in Indiana, May 18, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
115 PM EST TUE MAY 18 2004

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED RAPIDLY PAST HOUR IN AREA OF MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM
THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE ERIE TO JUST NORTH OF FWA TO WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.  WILL INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN A TEMPO GROUP AT FWA UNTIL
COMPLEX SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF AREA...ROUGHLY 21Z.   ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS
WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT FWA AREA BY 03Z.  TOWARD DAYBREAK...EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG AND STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS FORMATION AT BOTH
SBN AND FWA TAF SITES AS BOUNDARY THROUGH 925 MB MOISTURE REMAINS
HIGH.  WITH INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW...VISIBILITIES SHOULD BECOME
UNRESTRICTED BY MID MORNING...BUT EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND BEHIND COLD FRONT NEAR ORD
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY WITH LIKELY POPS NW THIS MORNING.
FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT SHOWERS NORTH OF
FRONT AND LIKELY POPS SE CWA ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. FRONT WILL
SINK JUST SOUTH OF CWA TONIGHT WITH DRYING IN THE NORTH AS SFC HIGH
NOSES IN. WILL BE A SHARPE EDGE TO PRECIP TONIGHT AND LEFT HIGH CHC
POPS FAR SOUTH FOR AOH AND MONTICELLO WITH CHC POPS TO FWA AND THEN
DRY NORTH. AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS TODAY NOT MUCH OF A RISE IN NW CWA
ESPECIALLY AROUND BEH WHERE HIGHS MAY BE REACHES EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH UPPER 70S FAR SOUTH AND EAST WELL AHEAD OF FRONT WHERE SOME
SUNSHINE WILL BE ABLE TO BOOST TEMPS EARLY. STRONG TEMP GRADIENT
BEHIND FRONT TONIGHT WITH UPPER 40S NEAR LAKE MI TO MID-UPPER 50S IN
LIMA.

LONG TERM...
ONLY MAJOR CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED WAS FOR WEDNESDAY. CUT THE PRECIP
TO JUST OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS THAT FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA
THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA. THEN LET THE PRECIP IN FOR ALL OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS IT LOOKS LIKE THAT FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD
THEN AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR CWA. THEN THE REST OF THE FORECAST
BECOMES A TIMING ISSUE OF WHEN THE PERIODS OF PRECIP WILL MOVE
THROUGH WITH FRONTS AROUND THE REST OF THE WEEK. SINCE THIS IS THE
EXTENDED FCST DID NOT TRY AND TIME ANYTHING...SO LEFT FCST AS BE.
POP CHANCES ARE NOT TOO HIGH AND THATS WHAT WAS IN THE FCST SO THAT
STILL LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER, LOOKS LIKE WED NIGHT COULD BE DRY AS WE
WILL BE BETWEEN FRONTS AND THE MODELS KEEPING THE ENERGY TO THE
NORTH OF US. THEN BY THURSDAY EVENING A FRONT COMES TO LAY EAST/WEST
ALONG THE INDIANA/MICHIGAN BORDER WITH THIS FRONT THEN GETTING
PUSHED SOUTHWARD INTO OUR CWA ON FRIDAY AND THEN LIFTED BACK NORTH
OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LOW SITS OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THEN
LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT FRONT MOVES IN ON MONDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
STILL LOOKED TO BE IN LINE.
&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
&&

BARJENBRUCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
513 AM EST TUE MAY 18 2004

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-191010-
ADAMS IN-ALLEN OH-ALLEN IN-BERRIEN MI-BLACKFORD IN-BRANCH MI-CASS MI-
CASS IN-DE KALB IN-DEFIANCE OH-ELKHART IN-FULTON OH-FULTON IN-
GRANT IN-HENRY OH-HILLSDALE MI-HUNTINGTON IN-JAY IN-KOSCIUSKO IN-
LA PORTE IN-LAGRANGE IN-MARSHALL IN-MIAMI IN-NOBLE IN-PAULDING OH-
PULASKI IN-PUTNAM OH-ST. JOSEPH MI-ST. JOSEPH IN-STARKE IN-
STEUBEN IN-VAN WERT OH-WABASH IN-WELLS IN-WHITE IN-WHITLEY IN-
WILLIAMS OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANGOLA...ARCHBOLD...AUBURN...
BENTON HARBOR...BENTON HEIGHTS...BERNE...BLUFFTON...BREMEN...BRYAN...
BUCHANAN...BUTLER...COLDWATER...COLUMBIA CITY...DECATUR...DEFIANCE...
DELPHOS...DOWAGIAC...DUNKIRK...DUNLAP...ELKHART...FAIR PLAIN...
FAIRMOUNT...FORT SHAWNEE...FORT WAYNE...GARRETT...GAS CITY...
GEORGETOWN...GOSHEN...GRANGER...GRISSOM AFB...GULIVOIRE PARK...
HARTFORD CITY...HICKSVILLE...HILLSDALE...HUNTINGTON...KENDALLVILLE...
KNOX...LA PORTE...LAGRANGE...LIGONIER...LIMA...LOGANSPORT...MARION...
MICHIGAN CITY...MISHAWAKA...MONTICELLO...MONTPELIER...NAPOLEON...
NAPPANEE...NEW HAVEN...NILES...NORTH MANCHESTER...OSSIAN...OTTAWA...
PERU...PLYMOUTH...PORTLAND...ROCHESTER...SIMONTON LAKE...
SOUTH BEND...ST. JOSEPH...STURGIS...SWANTON...SYRACUSE...
THREE RIVERS...TRAIL CREEK...TRI-LAKES...UPLAND...VAN WERT...
WABASH...WARSAW...WAUSEON...WESTVILLE...WINAMAC AND WINONA LAKE
513 AM EST TUE MAY 18 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN INDIANA...NORTHWEST
OHIO AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE INDIANA/MICHIGAN BORDER. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE REGION TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY ALTHOUGH IT IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME WHETHER ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE
OR NOT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

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