Damaging Wind in Idaho, July 16, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO IDAHO
200 PM MDT FRI JUL 16 2004

.DISCUSSION...
H20 LOOPS INDICATE LARGE PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL-MONSOONAL RH STREAMING
INTO PIH CWA WITH LIS -1 TO -3 AND PWS 0.7 TO 0.9 INCH.  DRY COOL
AIR PUNCH STILL ACROSS WEST ID.  4 CORNERS HIGH STILL IN PLACE.
MSAS SHOWS SFC MOISTURE DIVERGENCE MAX ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN AND
WESTERN HALF OF THE PIH CWA WITH 700 MB CAP OF +13 TO +14C (WEAKER
THEN YESTERDAY).  CU TOWERS WEST OF AIRPORT FORMING WITH TEMPS AT
PIH 10 DEGS WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.  STRONG CELL NEAR 77M.  H3 JET
STILL WELL TO THE NORTH OF REGION.  AXES OF DRY AND MOIST TONGUES
DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH SPATIALLY OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS SO THE
FORECAST WILL READ PERSISTENCE WITH MORE DIURNAL AND EARLY EVENING
-TSRA.  WINDS ALOFT UP TO H5 STILL LIGHT SO MAIN THREAT WILL BE
SLOW-MOVING HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS.

EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON H5 HEIGHTS CENTERED AT 12Z SUN WITH LITTLE
SPREAD INTO NEXT WEEK.  THEY ADVERTISE A PATTERN CHANGE WITH PACIFIC
TROUGH EJECTING INLAND AND SUPPRESSING RIDGE HEIGHTS OVER GREAT
BASIN.  A COLD FRONT WILL GRAZE THE AREA ON TUE WITH SHOWERS THEN A
COOLING TREND OF 5 TO 10 DEGS.  H5 595 DM HIGH REBUILDS NEAR 4
CORNERS AND BROADENS ALLOWING A MUCH HOTTER AND DRIER FORECAST FOR
WED-SAT.   04

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNING/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
553 AM MDT FRI JUL 16 2004

IDZ017>023-031-032-171100-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-
SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-
553 AM MDT FRI JUL 16 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO

.DAY ONE...
THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.  SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY
ACROSS SOUTHERN IDAHO...AND ALSO ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH TOWARD IDAHO.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY...COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  HOWEVER...WARM
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...KNOWN AS A CAP...WILL HINDER THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.  AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WILL BE IN THE BURLEY TWIN FALLS AREA...AND
ALSO IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ONCE AGAIN
RUNNING HIGH...SO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP...HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE POSSIBLE.  STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.  AN OCCASIONAL BOLT OF CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL ALSO OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.  SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY...DEVELOPING PRIMARILY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...ISOLATED HAIL...AND SPOTTY HEAVY RAINS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.  THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY
MID WEEK AS A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST IDAHO.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WE ASK ALL TRAINED SPOTTERS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THIS WOULD INCLUDE ALL HAIL...WIND...AND HEAVY RAIN REPORTS.  THIS
INFORMATION SHOULD BE CALLED INTO THE LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...OR OTHER
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MEYER