High Surf in Hawaii, November 1 to 5, 2004

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST MON NOV 01 2004

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST END OF THE ISLAND CHAIN IS
WEAKENING. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY NOT BE STABLE ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO
PREVENT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING...HOWEVER. DRYER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THE LAST FEW DAYS IS WEAKENING AND THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS IS SLOWLY STABILIZING. THE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TROUGH LOCATED OVER KAUAI HAS AN AREA ACTIVE
WITH THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS THAT IS MOVING AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST. A SECOND PORTION OF THE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE STATE IS
TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BIG ISLAND PLUME. THIS PORTION OF
THE TROUGH CALLED A SHORTWAVE WARRANTS WATCHING SIMPLY BECAUSE IT IS
SO CLOSE TO US. TEMPERATURES ALOFT OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS HAVE
WARMED...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO REMOVE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH SHOULD BE LESS OF A FACTOR
BY TOMORROW...HENCE THE ABSENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

A SECOND TROUGH PRESENTLY FAR TO THE NORTHWEST ALSO BEARS WATCHING
AS IT IS FORECAST TO NEAR THE ISLANDS TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS
ALSO PUSH A COLD FRONT OR SHEARLINE ACROSS THE STATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

CRAIG