Winter Weather in Georgia, April 13 to 14, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
920 PM EDT TUE APR 13 2004

.UPDATE...
VORT ROUNDING COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACRS TONIGHT AND COULD
BE SOME SHOWERS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED
BASED ON CURRENT CVRG ACRS GEORGIA. HAVE BUMPED POPS UPWARD FOR NE
GA...THE WESTERN UPSTATE AND NORTH ACRS ALL THE FOOTHILLS WHERE THE
DEEPER RH WILL REMAIN UNTIL DOWNSLOPE DRYING COMMENCES AFTER 06Z.
HAVE ALSO EXPANDED MIX CHANCES INTO HIGHER GA/SC MTNS BASED ON
COLDER THAN EXPECTED FREEZING LEVELS AT 00Z...AS PER LAPS SNDGS.

HAVE NOT MADE MUCH CHANGE TO MOUNTAIN SNOW CHANCES OVERNIGHT...
OTHER THAN TWEAKING CHANCES EARLIER IN GRIDS BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED
COLD LAPS SOUNDINGS. MODELS DO INDICATE THAT WINDY CONDS WILL DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT IN THE NC MTNS AS LLVL FLOW VEERS TO NW AFTER 08Z...SO
WILL INCREASE WINDS ACCORDINGLY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SORRY FOR THE DELAY...QUITE A FEW THINGS IN THE SHORT TERM TO
CONSIDER. APPEARS WEDGE HAS BEEN SCOURED OUT OF THE CWFA WITH SLY TO
SWLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS WELL. COULD STILL BE SOME
CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT MOST LIKELY OVER THE MTNS
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. HAVE KEPT A MENTION EARLY THERE.

UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRANSLATES EAST OVERNIGHT BRINGING COLD AIR AND
DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE MTNS. GOOD NWLY FLOW ALSO DEVELOPS. MDLS
INDICATE SNOWFALL A GOOD BET IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT.
ALSO SNOWING UPSTREAM WHICH IS ANOTHER GOOD INDICATOR. THEREFORE
WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NRN MTNS FROM LATE
TONIGHT TILL NOON WED. EXPECT BEST ACCUMS TO BE ON GRASSY SURFACES
MAINLY ABOVE 3500 FT. MANY POPULATED AREAS IN THE NRN MTNS ARE ABOVE
THIS ELEV. ALSO ACCUMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY NEAR THE TN BORDER. ROADS
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY OK...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
PROBLEMS. REST OF TN BORDER COUNTIES WILL SEE RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX.
COULD BE SOME ACCUMS ABOVE 4000 FT...BUT ISOLATED. OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO
PICK UP ACROSS THE MTNS TONIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS EARLY OUTSIDE OF
THE MTNS SHOULD ABATE SOMEWHAT AFTER THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN WED. HAVE FCST WIND ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS FOR
THE NRN MTNS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR WIND SINCE IT
WILL MAINLY BE SECOND PERIOD. MID SHIFT WILL NEED TO EVALUATE
FURTHER. SHOULD BE WINDY TO BREEZY OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS AS WELL.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THU. TEMPS COOL ENOUGH WED NIGHT THAT FREEZE
WATCH STILL NEEDED FOR THE MTNS SINCE THE 15TH IS THE OPENING DAY OF
THE FREEZE SEASON. FROSTY TEMPERATURES BEING FCST OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS...BUT WITH WINDS AND FALLING DEW POINTS...IT APPEARS AT THIS
TIME FROST NOT LIKELY.

FINALLY SOME TRANQUIL WX THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND HOLD ON
THRU SATURDAY. TEMPS RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE.

CLIPPER SYSTEM PROGGED TO TREK EAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
DRAGGING A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO OUR CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND EXITING BY
12Z TUESDAY. AS WITH MOST BACKDOOR FRONTS...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
LACKING FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS COINCIDENT WITH THE
FROPA. DUE TO THIN BAND OF LLVL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT...HAVE
INTRODUCED ONLY A 20 POP FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...TAPERED FROM MOUNTAINS TO PIEDMONT. HAVE KEPT CLOSE TO GFS
SOLUTION REGARDING TEMPS AND ALL OTHER FIELDS...SINCE IT AGREES
FAIRLY WELL WITH OTHER AVAILABLE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. WARM AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEN A CATEGORY COOLER MON AND
TUE WITH MORE CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON WED NCZ033-049-050.
     FREEZE WATCH WEDNESDAY NIGHT NC MTNS.
SC...NONE.
&&

CSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
553 AM EDT TUE APR 13 2004

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-131152-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
554 AM EDT TUE APR 13 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL LINGER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.
PLEASE SEE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY (NPWGSP) FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER APPALACHIANS WILL
SWEEP A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...THE COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN ROOTED OVER THE

REGION WILL BEGIN TO ERODE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL
THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ALSO...A COLD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL SLIDE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF THE LOW LEVEL WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS AND INCREASING
FORCING THIS AFTERNOON MAY YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVITY. THESE
STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA. FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WAVES

OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL IN
LESS THAN TWO HOURS...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN FLASH FLOOD OR MUD OR
ROCK SLIDES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN PLEASE SEE THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(SPSGSP).

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE FROM EASTERN TENNESSEE
INTO THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND WILL
STEADILY MIX WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT...BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS LIGHT SNOW. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR
OVER 3000 FEET ELEVATION. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
(SPSGSP) FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

COLD AIR WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH MID 30S IN THE
VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S TO UPPER 20S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF
NORTH CAROLINA. THURSDAY IS THE FIRST DAY OF THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THEREFORE...A FREEZE WATCH (NPWGSP) HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.