Funnel Cloud in Florida, September 21, 2004

SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 2004

.UPDATE...MOST OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF THE WEST
COAST SO WILL ELIMINATE IT FROM THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN ZONES.  THE
PROBLEM THAT APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP NOW INVOLVES THE HEAVY SURF
FROM JEANNE.  WITH THE EARLIER BEACH EROSION FROM FRANCES AND THE
FACT THAT JEANNE IS GOING TO REMAIN AS A LARGE SWELL PRODUCER WE CAN
EXPECT TO SEE EVEN MORE MAJOR BEACH EROSION AND POSSIBLY SOME EAST
COASTAL FLOODING DUE TO THE PREVIOUS EROSION.  BECAUSE OF THE
EXPECTED FORECAST ON JEANNE MOST OF THIS WILL BE LIMITED TO PALM
BEACH COUNTY.  HOWEVER IF JEANNE FOLLOWS ITS EXPECTED TRACK THEN
BROWARD COULD ALSO HAVE PROBLEMS BY THE WEEKEND. STILL TOO EARLY FOR
A WATCH BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. LATEST REPORTS ON THE LAKE
STILL HAVE WINDS AT LEAST CAUTION CONDITIONS SO WILL LOWER ADVISORY
ON UPDATE.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DISSIPATING EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. LOW PRESSURE WHICH
MOVED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT IS PULLING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO ATTM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE MOST
CONCENTRATED FROM NAPLES TO HALLANDALE AND POINTS NORTH. RADAR LOOP
SHOWING SIGNS OF STORMS SINKING SOUTHWARD SO KEPT LOW SCATTERED POPS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON EVEN TO THE SOUTH. PRECIP SHOULD
RAPIDLY BEGIN TO DISAPPEAR FROM THE RADAR SCREEN AFTER SUNSET. PWAT
FROM THE 12Z KMFL SOUNDING REVEALED VALUES NEAR 1.69. SINCE
THEN...GPS SENSOR INDICATES SLIGHT INCREASE. THIS MOIST AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TOMORROW...SO KEPT LOW SCATTERED POPS
FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...GFS MODEL SHOWS SHARP MOISTURE DECREASE BY
THURSDAY. STILL WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 HAD TO LEAVE ISOLATED POPS
IN...WITH LOW SCATTERED DUE TO SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE ON THE GULF
COAST.

BEYOND THAT...WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AS JEANNIE CONTINUES
TO WANDER AROUND IN THE ATLANTIC AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS TO THE NORTH. MARINE ISSUES REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
&&

.MARINE...OUR NEAREST BUOYS TO THE NORTH (ATLANTIC 9 AND 10) SHOWING
SEAS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. ONLY DIFFERENCE
NOTED IS SOUTHWARD SPREADING OF ROUGH SURF INTO OUR ZONES. SURF CAMS
SUGGEST THAT BEACHES FROM JUPITER TO BOCA ARE SEEING PRETTY GOOD
WAVE ACTION...BUT CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVE AS YOU HEAD SOUTH. IN
FACT...THE ATLANTIC OFF SOUTH BEACH LOOKS ALMOST SMOOTH. PROBABLY
NOT THE CASE A BIT OFFSHORE. NEEDLESS TO SAY RIP CURRENTS WILL BE A
PROBLEM THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PARTICULARLY FOR THE PALM
BEACHES. UNFORTUNATELY...HAVE TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO OUR
SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS...DUE TO SWELLS AND SURF ON THE NORTH
END...BUT WILL WORD FOR MUCH BETTER CONDITIONS SOUTHWARD. WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 28 KNOTS ON THE LAKE OBVIOUSLY WARRANT BOATERS STAY
OFF LAKE OKEECHOBEE THROUGH TONIGHT.

GULF OF MEXICO NEARSHORE WATERS PROTECTED SOMEWHAT BY THE PENINSULA
AND WINDS HAVE NOT CLIMBED MUCH THERE. SO WILL JUST KEEP SCEC FOR
THAT AREA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 75 86 76 88 / 30 30 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 86 77 87 / 30 30 20 20
MIAMI           75 87 76 88 / 30 40 20 20
NAPLES          72 89 73 89 / 40 40 20 30
&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY PALM BEACHES.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ATLANTIC WATERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
EXCEPT BISCAYNE BAY.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
845 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 2004

FLZ068-212200-
PALM BEACH EASTERN-
845 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY PALM BEACH COAST...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS PALM BEACH COAST...

LARGE SWELLS MOVING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE PALM BEACH COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS AT THE BEACHES. RIP CURRENTS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS WELL AND POSSIBLE BEACH EROSION, ESPECIALLY AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND DETAILED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND ON THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT MIAMIWEATHER.INFO. FOR
INFORMATION IN SPANISH, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ROUGH SURF CAN BE EXPECTED TO PERSIST MOST OF THE WEEK AS A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WIND AND A NORTHEAST SWELL WILL KEEP THE SEAS
HIGH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FLZ072-074-212200-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-DADE METROPOLITAN-
845 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD BEACHES...

NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS COMBINED WITH A MODERATE NORTHEAST SWELL HAS
LED TO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY. SOME ROUGH SURF MAY ALSO
BE ENCOUNTERED AT THE BROWARD BEACHES, MAINLY NORTH OF FORT
LAUDERDALE.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND DETAILED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND ON THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT MIAMIWEATHER.INFO. FOR
INFORMATION IN SPANISH, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FLZ063-066-069>071-073-075-212200-
EASTERN COLLIER-GLADES-HENDRY-MAINLAND MONROE-WESTERN BROWARD-
WESTERN COLLIER-WESTERN DADE-
845 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE INTERIOR AND WEST SOUTH FLORIDA...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST
PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME FLOODING AND
STANDING WATER AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS
TO 30 MPH MAY ACCOMPANY SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND DETAILED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND ON THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT MIAMIWEATHER.INFO. FOR
INFORMATION IN SPANISH, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.