Hurricane in Florida, September 13 to 16, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
415 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2004

.SHORT TERM...WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED POPS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS OVER THE AREA...GOING ISOLATED LATE.  EXPECT
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS POPS (MAINLY SE) TOMORROW WITH UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.   EXPECT GRADIENT TO
START TIGHTENING TOWARD THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD (TUESDAY
NIGHT)...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

DUE TO INCREASING SWELLS (TO AROUND 14 SECONDS) BEING OBSERVED IN
THE OFFSHORE BUOYS...WE HAVE POSTED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE
BEACHES.

&&

.EXTENDED...WE NOTED A DEFINATE NORTHWARD JOG TO HURRICANE IVAN FOR
A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA. WHILE THIS WAS RATHER UNCHARACTERISTIC FOR THIS HURRICANE...
WHICH HAS HAD A DISTINCT LEFT BIAS ALL ALONG...THE GENERAL NORTHWEST
MOTION IS MAINTAINED...INLINE WITH THE GOING AND LATEST TPC TRACK. AS
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF IVAN GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH
TOMORROW...IVAN SHOULD BEGIN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK.  AS IT GETS INTO
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF...IT IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER MORE
MIDLEVEL SHEAR...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY START A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION.
JUST WHEN AND WHERE THAT NORTHEASTWARD MOTION BEGINS IS THE KEY
FORECAST PROBLEM...HENCE THE UNCERTAINTY EXPRESSED IN THE DAY 3-4
TRACK AS TO EXACTLY WHERE IVAN WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE GULF
COAST. UNFORTUNATELY...FOR OUR AREA...THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
MEMBERS CONTINUE TO CLUSTER ON THE MOBILE...PENSACOLA AREA...AND THE
TPC TRACK CURRENTLY TAKES IVAN TO AROUND PENSACOLA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE A
HURRICANE WATCH POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SOMETIME TONIGHT.

ALL PERSONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AREA URGED TO STAY IN CLOSE
TUNE WITH THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS WITH HURRICANE IVAN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY TEMPS / POPS...

MOBILE     72 87 74 89 / 40 40 40 60
PENSACOLA  73 87 73 87 / 40 50 50 70
DESTIN     73 85 74 86 / 40 50 50 70
EVERGREEN  70 84 71 82 / 30 40 40 60
WAYNESBORO 69 89 68 87 / 20 20 30 60
CAMDEN     69 87 68 82 / 20 30 30 70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY ALZ063-064
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GMZ630-650-670.
FL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FLZ002-004-006
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GMZ655-675.
MS...NONE.

&&

05/GARMON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
500 AM CDT MON SEP 13 2004

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-131700-
BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-
COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-
GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
500 AM CDT MON SEP 13 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH A FEW STORMS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH.
OTHERWISE NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PROGRESS OF
HURRICANE IVAN SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE LATEST FORECAST CALLS FOR THE HURRICANE TO MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL STORM
OR HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. BY LATE THURSDAY...WHAT IS LEFT OF
IVAN SHOULD BE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...EXPECT TO SEE A RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY.
EXPECT AN INCREASINGLY HIGH RIP CURRENT DANGER THROUGH MID WEEK AS
HURRICANE IVAN IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE IVAN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION BY LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.