Rip Current in Florida, October 22, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
300 PM EDT FRI OCT 22 2004

.SHORT TERM...LIGHT SHOWERS THAT MOVED ONSHORE EARLIER TODAY HAVE
CONTINUED INTO MARION COUNTY IN THE NNE FLOW. VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS
NLY FLOW ABOVE 5 KFT AND NNE FLOW BELOW. THUS SHOWERS OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND NOT ONSHORE REST OF
THE AFTN/EVNG. VEERING OF THE FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE BEACHES AGAIN THAT WILL CONTINUE IN THE
MORNING. ALSO EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AGAIN INLAND WITH PATCHES AROUND
ONE HALF MILE VSBY.

THE WEDGE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TOMORROW AFTN AS A DEVELOPING
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO SEPARATES FROM WEDGE. THE
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF
TO CANADA. THIS RIDGE WILL BECOME PINCHED OFF AND FLATTENED ON
SATURDAY NIGHTY BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO
THE MIDWEST...THEN REBUILD ON MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A FRONT INTO THE AREA ON SUN/MON.
GFS IS FASTER WITH GREATER POPS. HAVE BLENDED GFS AND ETA BUT CAPPED
POPS AT 30%. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...THE FRONT WILL MOVE WELL SOUTH OF AREA RESULTING IN
CLEARING SKIES AND NLY FLOW. WITH FALLING THICKNESS VALUES IN BOTH
GFS AND DGEX WILL GO WITH COOLER TEMPS IN 50S AND 70S EXCEPT A
LITTLE HIGHER ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE SOUTH PART. ANOTHER
WEDGE HIGH DEVELOPS MID WEEK WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST.
THEN DEEP HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION THU/FRI PROVIDING ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND WARMING TEMPS.
&&

.MARINE...SEAS CONTINUE UP OVER WEEKEND MAINLY DUE TO LARGE NE SWELL
FROM SYSTEM NW OF BERMUDA. EVERYTHING REMAINS ON TRACK PER PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 56 77 57 77 / 00 00 30 20
SSI 61 73 61 77 / 20 20 10 20
JAX 58 76 57 79 / 10 20 10 20
SGJ 65 75 62 78 / 20 20 10 20
GNV 59 78 57 81 / 00 00 00 20
OCF 58 80 58 82 / 00 00 00 20
&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

MKT/ACS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
515 AM EDT FRI OCT 22 2004

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-231000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLAY-
CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-
FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF
DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-ST. JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-
WARE-WAYNE-
515 AM EDT FRI OCT 22 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...
...SEVERAL AREA RIVERS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...

BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS AND A DEVELOPING NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CAUSE A
MODERATE CHANCE OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST SURF
ZONE FORECAST FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

THE SANTA FE RIVER AND PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER REMAIN ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE. RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A SLOW FALL
THROUGH THE WEEK. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS
FOR MORE INFORMATION.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY...

A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE THE MODERATE CHANCE OF
RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SATURDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST SURF ZONE
FORECAST FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

MZ