Damaging Wind in Florida, May 31, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
350 PM EDT MON MAY 31 2004

...UPDATE TO MODIFY COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...

WINDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS. THUS...WILL REMOVE SCEC FROM
THE FORECAST.

*******************************************************
.SYNOPSIS...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THESE STORMS
HAVE INDEED TURNED OUT TO BE WEAKER THAN THE ONES TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...AS THE STORMS HAVE ENCOUNTERED MORE UNFAVORABLE AIR OVER US.
BARRING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 70S PRODUCING UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 WITH HIGHER GUSTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...STALLING WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ITS ASSOCIATED BAND OF INCREASED
MOISTURE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW A
BROAD MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SETTING UP EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...THROUGH WHICH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
RAIN...TOO LATE TO RESCUE THE MONTH OF MAY FROM ITS RAIN DEFICIT.

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN US
THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORK WEEK...WITH NUMEROUS
SMALL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH DURING THIS
TIME. THESE ALONG WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. POPS AND
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.MARINE...IT REMAINS WINDY JUST WEST OF OUR COASTAL AREA IN MOB
WATERS...AND OUR WESTERN WATERS WERE IN SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY. IN OUR EASTERN WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS
HAVE NOT RISEN QUITE AS MUCH AS EXPECTED...REMAINING BELOW CRITERIA
MOST OF THE DAY WITH NO INDICATION OF INCREASING. MODELS ALSO DO NOT
JUSTIFY KEEPING SCEC FOR EASTERN WATERS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
FROM THE WEST AT SLIGHTLY LOWER LEVELS TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TLH 72 85 69 86 / 40 60 30 50
PFN 75 84 73 86 / 50 60 30 50
DHN 70 86 69 86 / 60 60 30 50
ABY 70 85 67 87 / 60 60 30 50
VLD 72 85 67 88 / 40 60 30 50
CTY 74 88 70 87 / 20 30 30 50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.

&&

 16

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
417 AM EDT MON MAY 31 2004

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ750-
755-770-775-010817-
BAKER GA-BAY FL-BEN HILL GA-BERRIEN GA-BROOKS GA-CALHOUN GA-
CALHOUN FL-CLAY GA-COASTAL WALTON FL-COFFEE AL-COLQUITT GA-COOK GA-
DALE AL-DECATUR GA-DIXIE FL-DOUGHERTY GA-EARLY GA-FRANKLIN FL-
GADSDEN FL-GENEVA AL-GRADY GA-GULF FL-HENRY AL-HOLMES FL-HOUSTON AL-
INLAND WALTON FL-IRWIN GA-JACKSON FL-JEFFERSON FL-LAFAYETTE FL-
LANIER GA-LEE GA-LEON FL-LIBERTY FL-LOWNDES GA-MADISON FL-MILLER GA-
MITCHELL GA-QUITMAN GA-RANDOLPH GA-SEMINOLE GA-TAYLOR FL-TERRELL GA-
THOMAS GA-TIFT GA-TURNER GA-WAKULLA FL-WASHINGTON FL-WORTH GA-
418 AM EDT MON MAY 31 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE...AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. A SQUALL
LINE WILL APPROACH THIS AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS SQUALL LINE AND STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING OF A MOIST AIRMASS WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HAIL. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST FLORIDA...BUT
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISHING RAIN
CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SOME STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE PANHANDLE
AND BIG BEND COAST.

A RIP CURRENT IS A STRONG NARROW CURRENT OF WATER FLOWING FROM THE
BEACH THROUGH THE SURF ZONE. IT CAN RAPIDLY CARRY A SWIMMER INTO
DEEPER WATER.

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...WADE SIDEWAYS PARALLEL TO THE
BEACH UNTIL YOU ARE OUT OF ITS PULL. TO ESCAPE...RIDE THE CURRENT OUT
BEYOND THE SURF ZONE WHERE THE RIP CURRENT DISSIPATES...THEN SWIM TO
SHORE OUTSIDE THE NARROW CURRENT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE VIA OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TLH/ OR
LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS.

9-FOURNIER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1100 AM EDT MON MAY 31 2004

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>013-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-312100-
BAKER GA-BAY FL-BEN HILL GA-BERRIEN GA-BROOKS GA-CALHOUN GA-
CALHOUN FL-CLAY GA-COASTAL WALTON FL-COFFEE AL-COLQUITT GA-COOK GA-
DALE AL-DECATUR GA-DOUGHERTY GA-EARLY GA-GENEVA AL-GRADY GA-HENRY AL-
HOLMES FL-HOUSTON AL-INLAND WALTON FL-IRWIN GA-JACKSON FL-LANIER GA-
LEE GA-LOWNDES GA-MILLER GA-MITCHELL GA-QUITMAN GA-RANDOLPH GA-
SEMINOLE GA-TERRELL GA-THOMAS GA-TIFT GA-TURNER GA-WASHINGTON FL-
WORTH GA-
1100 AM EDT MON MAY 31 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE..EFFECTIVE UNTIL 500 PM EDT MONDAY AFTERNOON (400
PM CDT).

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN ALABAMA...COFFEE...GENEVA...DALE...HENRY...AND HOUSTON.

IN FLORIDA...WALTON...HOLMES...WASHINGTON...BAY...JACKSON...
CALHOUN...AND GULF.

IN GEORGIA...QUITMAN...CLAY...EARLY...MILLER...SEMINOLE...RANDOLPH...
CALHOUN...BAKER...DECATUR...TERRELL...DOUGHERTY...MITCHELL...GRADY...
LEE...WORTH...COLQUITT...THOMAS...TURNER...TIFT...COOK...BROOKS...BEN
HILL...IRWIN...BERRIEN...LANIER...AND LOWNDES.

REMEMBER A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES
AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PEOPLE IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

17-GOULD