Hail in Florida, June 8, 2004

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004

.SHORT TERM (THIS EVE - THURS)...GETTING A BIT DIFFICULT TO KEEP
TABS OF MODEL TRENDS AS THERE HAVE BEEN SOME FLIP-FLOPS THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS.  HOWEVER...THE RECENT TREND IS FOR A CONTINUATION
OR PERHAPS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...FOLLOWED BY A
SUBTLE VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM SE TO S COURTESY OF A
WEAK 500 MB TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SE U.S. COAST TOWARD THE
E GULF/FL PENINSULA BY THURS.

IN GENERAL...THE GOOD NEWS FOR THE FEW AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED
LITTLE RAINFALL THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS WE EXPECT A MORE CLASSIC
COASTAL COUNTIES COLLISION BOTH THIS EVENING AND WED EVENING...
HOPEFULLY (FOR THE WATER NEEDS) RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
WITH A GRADUAL DISSIPATION AFTER SUNSET AS FAIRLY WEAK FLOW MAY
ALLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO NIGHT.

OF COURSE...THE BAD NEWS IS THAT IT IS EARLY JUNE AND THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE RATHER UNSTABLE WITH LATE-SPRING/EARLY SUMMER COOLER
TEMPS ALOFT.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS
EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON WED EVENING.  WILL
HIGHLIGHT IN AN SPECIAL WX STATEMENT BY 3 PM.

TONIGHTS ACTIVITY SHOULD END NOT TOO LONG AFTER SUNSET AS MUCH OF
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE GULF AND SCATTER OUT.
ACTIVITY WED EVE COULD BE SLOWER TO DISSIPATE AS LIGHT S FLOW TAKES
OVER.  THURSDAYS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SHIFT A BIT INLAND...BUT
STILL EXPECT SCATTERED PCPN NEAR THE COAST AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
WATERS.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...OR A DEGREE ABOVE THE
GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKS TOO PESSIMISTIC ON LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN
CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM (THU NIGHT - TUE)...SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA FRIDAY WILL BEGIN A SLOW RETREAT TO THE SOUTH AS 500MB
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. LONG RANGE
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN LACKING...SO CONFIDENCE IN EXTENDED
FORECAST IS NOT THAT HIGH. AS A RESULT...WILL STICK PRETTY CLOSE TO
CLIMO AND WILL NOT YET INCREASE POPS AND CLOUDS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. IN FACT...THIS RUN OF THE GFS DEVELOPS
QUITE A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT THAT DROPS INTO THE EASTERN
GULF. THIS TAPS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH RIDES UP AHEAD OF A
SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO RUN NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FROM
THE CAROLINAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...
WILL ALLOW FOR IDEA THAT SURFACE RIDGE DROPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT NOT INCREASE THE MOISTURE OR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.MARINE...INITIAL SE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE S AND SW BUT COULD
BECOME EVEN LIGHTER AS WEAK UPPER IMPULSE SETTLES IN ALLOWING SFC
RIDGE TO SINK S ONCE AGAIN.  STILL...EXPECT SLIGHT SEAS OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION WHICH INITIALLY WILL HAVE IMPACT ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS
EACH EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TPA 073 090 073 089 / 40 60 40 50
FMY 071 091 071 091 / 40 60 40 50
GIF 071 091 071 091 / 20 60 40 60
SRQ 071 089 071 088 / 40 60 40 40
BKV 068 090 068 090 / 40 60 40 50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...BSG
LONG TERM....EJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
530 AM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-081417-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
530 AM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...

A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW...COMBINED WITH THE SEA BREEZES AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVENT THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM MOVING
AS FAR INLAND AS THE LAST FEW DAYS...AND IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR.  THE FIRST STORMS SHOULD
MOVE WEST NORTHWEST INTO PORTIONS OF HIGHLANDS AND POLK COUNTIES BY
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW OTHER STORMS POPPING UP ALONG THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE THE GREATEST
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

THE MAIN THREATS FROM TODAYS STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.

WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG
APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT.  WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS
BEFORE USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:

ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.  FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE FLOW WILL
SHIFT BACK TO A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AND THIS WILL FAVOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND AREAS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

PRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
246 PM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004

FLZ042-048>051-055-060-082200-
CITRUS-HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-SARASOTA-
246 PM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004

...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING COMMUTE...

OUTFLOWS FROM DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA WILL COLLIDE WITH THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE OVER THE SUNCOAST
METROPOLITAN AREAS...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY AND SARASOTA
BRADENTON...BETWEEN 4 AND 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON.  WHEN THE COLLISION
OCCURS...MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A NORTH TO SOUTH
LINE BETWEEN CITRUS AND SARASOTA COUNTY...PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO
CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTY.

THESE STORMS WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...AND SHOULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MINOR URBAN
FLOODING...FREQUENT TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH IN PLACES...AND HAIL.

RESIDENTS...PARTICULARLY MOTORISTS AND OTHERS WITH COMMUTES BETWEEN 4
AND 7 PM...SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW

BSG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
341 PM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004

FLZ060-062-065-082045-
CHARLOTTE-LEE-SARASOTA-
341 PM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING WEST AT 15 TO 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT
NORTH FORT MYERS...FORT MYERS...CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND BONITA
SPRINGS...UNTIL 445 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SOME DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS
POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS
STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
346 PM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004

FLZ051-052-055-056-060-062-082030-
CHARLOTTE-HARDEE-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-POLK-SARASOTA-
346 PM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH...WILL
AFFECT FORT GREEN...BARTOW...NORTH PORT AND MYAKKA HEAD...UNTIL 430
PM EDT. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. HAIL
UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
355 PM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004

FLZ039-042-043-048-049-082130-
CITRUS-HERNANDO-LEVY-PASCO-SUMTER-
355 PM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE NATURE COAST...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH...WILL AFFECT
WILDWOOD...THE GREEN SWAMP...LAKE PANASOFFKEE AND BUSHNELL...UNTIL
530 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW
AROUND. SOME DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH
DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
432 PM EDT TUE JUN 08 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0418 PM     TORNADO          CAPE CORAL              26.58N 81.99W
06/08/2004                   LEE                FL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            CAPE CORAL FIRE DEPARTMENT HAD SEVERAL PUBLIC REPORTS OF
            TORNADO IN THE AREA OF 3700 OASIS BLOCK

0423 PM     TSTM WND GST     CAPE CORAL              26.58N 81.99W
06/08/2004  58 MPH           LEE                FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2.5 INCH DIAMETER TREE BRANCHES DOWN

0431 PM     HAIL             CAPE CORAL              26.58N 81.99W
06/08/2004  0.88 INCH        LEE                FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JS