Funnel Cloud in Florida, June 25, 2004

SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
125 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2004

.DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE OVER PALM BEACH
COUNTY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE OVER THE INTERIOR REGIONS OF THE
EAST COAST METRO REGION AND ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE. THE
ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE INLAND TOWARD THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND
NORTHERN INTERIOR REGIONS BY THIS EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL KEEP THE STEERING FLOW OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON AND 500 MBS
TEMPERATURES AROUND -11C...SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING COULD BECOME STRONG WITH SMALL
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY WHERE THE
SEA BREEZES AND LAKE BREEZE COLLIDE.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN DIED OUT LATE THIS EVENING
OR EARLY TONIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AS THE
HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST. BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE A
THUNDERSTORM COULD REDEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE EAST COAST METRO REGIONS...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WHICH WILL KEEP SOUTH FLORIDA
IN A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.

THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS MOVES
SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE 500 MBS TEMPERATURES
COOL AGAIN ON SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING UP ON SUNDAY. SO MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND ALONG
WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS
MAINLY ON SATURDAY.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 80 THIS WEEKEND FOR THE EAST
COAST...WHILE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S COAST TO LOWER TO
MID 90S INLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE HEAT INDICES TO BE FROM 100
TO 105 DEGREES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BRING THE METRO EAST COAST
CLOSE TO AN HEAT ADVISORY CONDITION THIS WEEKEND...BUT WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST...THAT COULD BRING RELIEF TO THE
HEAT...I AM NOT PLANNING ON ISSUING ANY HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AT
THIS TIME FOR THE METRO EAST COAST. HOWEVER...THIS SITUATION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

FOR THE REST OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND...THE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 105 TO 110 RANGE. BUT THE
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. SO NO HEAT ADVISORY IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...THE HIGH WILL REMAIN MAINLY OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA ALL NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP US IN A SOUTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR NIGHT TIME AND MORNING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EAST COAST...AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTERIOR AND WEST COAST.

THERE IS A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS EAST OF THE ANTILLES ISLANDS THAT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARDS SHOULD FLORIDA MIDDLE TO LATE
NEXT WEEK. SO PLAN ON RAISING THE POPS A LITTLE BIT FOR LATE NEXT
WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BUT REMAIN IN THE CHANCE CAT GROUP.

&&

.MARINE...NO REAL CHANGES THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE WITH WINDS OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST DIRECTION AND SPEEDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 79 92 78 91 / 10 20 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 90 80 89 / 10 10 10 20
MIAMI           80 91 79 90 / 10 20 10 20
NAPLES          75 94 75 92 / 30 40 30 40
&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

BAXTER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
754 AM EDT FRI JUN 25 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA

FLZ068-072-074-252200-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-DADE METROPOLITAN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
754 AM EDT FRI JUN 25 2004

.DAY ONE...TODAY

...ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY INLAND...
...AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES 100 TO 105...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE EXPECTED OVER INLAND AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEREFORE THE THREAT OF LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOULD BE
MAINLY WEST OF THE METRO AREAS.

AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S AT THE
BEACHES TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. THESE TEMPERATURES...COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S...WILL RESULT IN MAXIMUM HEAT
INDICES FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES IN THE METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND DETAILED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND ON THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT MIAMIWEATHER.INFO. FOR
INFORMATION IN SPANISH, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FLZ063-066-067-069>071-073-075-252200-
EASTERN COLLIER-GLADES-HENDRY-MAINLAND MONROE-PALM BEACH WESTERN-
WESTERN BROWARD-WESTERN COLLIER-WESTERN DADE-
754 AM EDT FRI JUN 25 2004

.DAY ONE...TODAY

...HEAT INDICES AROUND 110 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...
...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS...

AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S ALONG
THE GULF COAST TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S WELL INLAND. THESE
TEMPERATURES...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S...WILL RESULT IN MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES AROUND 110 DEGREES
ACROSS WEST FLORIDA AND INTERIOR SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS
ARE URGED TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT THEMSELVES FROM THE
HEAT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STAY OUT OF THE SUN...WEAR LIGHT
COLORED PROTECTIVE CLOTHING INCLUDING HATS AND USE SUNSCREEN...TAKE
FREQUENT BREAKS IF OUTDOOR WORK IS REQUIRED AND DRINK PLENTY OF
WATER...AND IF POSSIBLE SEEK REFUGE INDOORS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL...AND THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG WITH DANGEROUS
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND DETAILED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND ON THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT MIAMIWEATHER.INFO. FOR
INFORMATION IN SPANISH, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.