Damaging Wind in Florida, June 10, 2004

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
330 PM EDT THU JUN 10 2004

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...SURFACE RIDGE HAS SLIPPED SOUTH AND WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT SOUTH EXCEPT NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS HAVE WESTERLY
FLOW. SURFACE WIND FLOW WILL PROMOTE EARLIER CONVECTION TO THE
NORTH THAT MOVES INLAND TOWARD THE EAST COAST. TO THE SOUTH...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE COAST. MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL
DRIFT TOWARD FL AND PRODUCE A SUBSIDENT FLOW. THAT SHOULD DECREASE
COVERAGE SLIGHTLY AND LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
TO INLAND AND EAST COAST AREAS.

.LONG TERM (SUN NGT-THURS)...NO MUCH CHANGE ATTM. EARLY IN THE
PERIOD GFS BRINGS TROPICAL FEATURES IN NW CARIB INTO THE GULF BUT
OTHER MODELS SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON STRENGTH AND POSITIONS AFTER THAT.
SO WILL KEEP CURRENT PACKAGE UNTIL WE CAN GET SOME CONTINIUITY WITH
MODELS. AFTER THAT RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE REGION WITH NEAR CLIMO
TEMPS AND POPS.

&&

.MARINE...NO MAJOR CHANGES OR CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THUNDERTORMS WILL OCCUR FROM LATE NIGHT THROUGH AROUND NOON IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 089/075 089/076 091 403
FMY 091/074 090/075 091 424
GIF 091/073 092/074 092 444
SRQ 088/074 088/075 088 403
BKV 090/071 090/071 091 423

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...RD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
535 AM EDT THU JUN 10 2004

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-101500-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
535 AM EDT THU JUN 10 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...

ABUNDANT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE SEA BREEZES...
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A RATHER LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SETUP DURING THE DAY AND
THIS WILL ALLOW THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO MOVE WELL INLAND EAST OF
THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL POP UP
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST
NUMEROUS OVER INTERIOR AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LIGHT
FLOW...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY CAUSE A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP BACK
TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE EVENING.

THE MAIN THREATS FROM TODAYS STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.  ALSO...BECAUSE BOUNDARIES WILL BE
NUMEROUS...THERE IS A VERY LOW THREAT FOR A SMALL BRIEF TORNADO OR
WATERSPOUT.

WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS.  IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG
APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT.  WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS
BEFORE USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

A MOIST SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS
WILL FAVOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST DURING THE
MORNING HOURS THEN SHIFTING INLAND EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

PRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
301 PM EDT THU JUN 10 2004

FLZ042-043-102000-
CITRUS-SUMTER-
301 PM EDT THU JUN 10 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN CITRUS AND NORTHERN
   SUMTER COUNTIES...

THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT INVERNESS
...WILDWOOD AND LAKE PANASOFFKEE...UNTIL 400 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SOME DAMAGE TO
TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZE
HAIL.

RUDE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
431 PM EDT THU JUN 10 2004

FLZ057-061-102115-
DE SOTO-HIGHLANDS-
431 PM EDT THU JUN 10 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...
A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT RURAL
SOUTHWESTERN HIGHLANDS COUNTY AND RURAL EASTERN DESOTO
COUNTY...UNTIL 515 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SOME DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS
POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS
STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
504 PM EDT THU JUN 10 2004

FLZ049-051-052-102145-
HILLSBOROUGH-PASCO-POLK-
504 PM EDT THU JUN 10 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LAKELAND...
A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT WINSTON...
LAKELAND...CRYSTAL LAKE AND GIBSONIA...UNTIL 545 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SOME DAMAGE TO
TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY
FROM TALL OBJECTS. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED.
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.