Hail and Damaging Wind in Florida, July 7, 2004

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
222 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2004

.DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION GETTING UNDERWAY MUCH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ACTIVE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY ALREADY
PUSHING WELL INLAND WITH ASSOCIATED STORMS AND OUTFLOWS REACHING THE
INTERIOR. STORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST. A FEW
STORMS HAVE ALREADY BECOME STRONG...AND 15Z CAPE SOUNDING HAS SOME
SOME DRYING AT MID LEVELS WHICH MAY HELP ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM GUSTS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY INTO THIS EVENING AS NUMEROUS BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OCCUR.
SUFFICIENTLY COOL AND DRY ALOFT FOR STRONG AND A FEW SEVERE STORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE INDICATED SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS NEAR THE
EAST COAST FROM BREVARD COUNTY NORTHWARD WHERE THE BEST BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS AND HIGHER PWATS EXIST. WEAK W-NW WIND COMPONENT THROUGH
LOWER AND MID LEVELS SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO DRIFT BACK ACROSS THE
EAST COAST THIS EVENING.

THU/FRI...NO CHANGE IN PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS WITH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THU...LIFTING NORTHWARD TO CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE AREA ON FRI. WITH WEAK STEERING WINDS THE ATLANTIC
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY FOCUS INITIAL SCATTERED CONVECTION
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY/STEADILY INLAND BY EARLY AFTERNOON. GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION SHOULD FAVOR THE INTERIOR DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH CELL MOTION DUE TO PROPAGATION
ALONG BOUNDARIES. SOME SLIGHT EWD STEERING FLOW MAY EXIST OVER THE
NORTHERNMOST CWA THU...POSSIBLY ALLOWING A FEW STORMS TO WORK
BACK/LINGER TOWARD THE NE COAST. BY FRIDAY...POSITION OF LOW/MID
LEVEL RIDGE SUGGESTS FASTER/GREATER INLAND PENETRATION OF EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE THAN PRIOR DAYS WITH POSSIBLE ECSB/WCSB MERGER OVER THE
INTERIOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY CONCERNS WL BE HEAVY RAIN
AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING ALONG THE INTERSTATE FOUR CORRIDOR AND AREAS
EASTWARD.

WEEKEND/NEXT WEEK...ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FORECAST TO MEANDER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. ONSHORE FLOW REGIME SOUTH OF RIDGE
WILL FAVOR LOWEST POPS ALONG THE SE COAST WHERE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE INLAND. THIS REGIME ALSO FAVORS GREATEST COVERAGE OF
STORMS OVER THE NW INTERIOR WHERE INTERACTIONS OF NUMEROUS MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES WILL BE MOST PROMINENT.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD
ALONG/OFFSHORE U.S. EAST COAST...BUT SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER
SUPPORT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH/EAST OF THE REGION. MAIN AFFECTS SHOULD
BE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND THUS
RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF SW/W FLOW WITH MEAN RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN SEA
BOARD...AND RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE LEVELS. INITIAL DISTURBANCE
WITH ORIGINATIONS IN THE TROPICS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE STATE
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...WITH A SECOND/STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
REGION AROUND DAY 7. UNTIL THEN WILL CONTINUE WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL
POPS.

&&

.MARINE...ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY THEN MOVE NORTH. GENERAL OFFSHORE GRADIENT FLOW WL BE
REPLACED BY SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IN LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR SHORE. ASIDE FROM HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WL CONTINUE WITH SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  92  75  90  /  40  40  20  30
MCO  76  93  73  92  /  30  50  30  40
MLB  75  91  75  89  /  40  30  20  20
VRB  73  91  75  90  /  40  30  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...GLITTO
LONG TERM...PENDERGRAST

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1110 AM EDT WED JUL 7 2004

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
072000-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-
INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-
ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-
1110 AM EDT WED JUL 7 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
STORMS AND OUTFLOWS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT WESTERN SECTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BEGIN TO FORM NEAR THE COAST AND DRIFT
SLOWLY INLAND. STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AS STORMS FROM THE INTERIOR COLLIDE WITH
THE STORMS AND OUTFLOWS FROM THE EAST COAST BOUNDARY. STORM MOTION
WILL BE A SLOW DRIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING STORMS TO MOVE
BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST INTO THIS EVENING.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS NUMEROUS
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OCCUR. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS FROM 40 TO 60 MPH...HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF A COIN AND FREQUENT
TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF AN
APPROACHING OR DEVELOPING STORM. DO NOT RETURN OUTDOORS UNTIL 30
MINUTES PAST THE LAST AUDIBLE THUNDER.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
A FEW SPOTS IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA RECEIVED MORE THAN THREE
INCHES OF RAIN TUESDAY...INCLUDING SOUTHERN OSCEOLA...CENTRAL ORANGE
AND NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTIES. A FEW ADDITIONAL LOCATIONS HAVE
RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN SINCE THE START OF JULY...MAKING
THOSE AREAS MORE VULNERABLE TO FLOODING. STORMS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY EXCEED TWO TO
THREE INCHES IN SPOTS AGAIN TODAY. THIS WILL CAUSE STANDING WATER IN
LOW LYING AREAS AND OTHER FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS. DRIVING WILL ALSO BE
HAZARDOUS DUE TO STANDING WATER ON RAIN SOAKED ROADS.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS OR
GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW STORMS MOVING BACK ACROSS THE
INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE WATERS FROM THE MAINLAND. THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS EACH AFTERNOON. INTERIOR
SECTIONS WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF LATE AFTERNOON STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF
NEEDED.

GLITTO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
102 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2004

FLZ144-071745-
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
102 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2004

...STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...SMALL
HAIL AND FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING APPROACHING LAKE COUNTY...

AT 100 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG STORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN LAKE COUNTY. THE STORMS
WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH AND WILL AFFECT AREAS FROM
LEESBURG TO MASCOTTE THROUGH 2 PM.

IF THE STORMS STRENGTHEN FURTHER...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

52

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
130 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2004

FLZ053-071815-
OSCEOLA-
130 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2004

...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTY...

AT 125 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL OVER SAINT
CLOUD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL INCLUDE HARMONY.

IF THE STORM STRENGTHENS FURTHER...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

PB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
226 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2004

FLZ047-147-071900-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
226 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2004

...STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 45 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN BREVARD COUNTY...

AT 220 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL OVER MERRITT
ISLAND WILDLIFE REFUGE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH. ANOTHER STRONG
STORM WAS DEVELOPING OVER MELBOURNE AND INDIATLANTIC.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL INCLUDE THE KENNEDY SPACE CENTER AND MELBOURNE.
STORMS WILL ALSO CONTAIN FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

IF THE STORM STRENGTHENS FURTHER...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

PB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
231 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2004

FLZ041-044-071915-
INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
233 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2004

...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL OVER NORTHEASTERN LAKE COUNTY...AND MOVING INTO WESTERN VOLUSIA
COUNTY...

AT 230 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL OVER NORTHERN
LAKE COUNTY NEAR PAISLEY...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. THE STORM WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST VOLUSIA COUNTY BETWEEN DELAND AND BARBERVILLE

IF THE STORM STRENGTHENS FURTHER...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

52