Damaging Wind in Florida, July 2, 2004

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
101 PM EDT FRI JUL 2 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...12Z TBW SOUNDING SHOWS NEARLY 2 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER...AND IN FACT...SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG BY AND SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES...AND EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THEN PUSH
INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM
WITH RESPECT TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA
THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WITH SUCH LIGHT STEERING
FLOW...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHICH AREAS HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT GETTING WET. USUALLY...WITH LIGHT FLOW...BOUNDARIES FROM BOTH
SEA BREEZE FRONTS EVENTUALLY CONVERGE IN THE INTERIOR...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHER POPS THERE. WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW MORE
PREDOMINANT TO THE SOUTH...EXPECT CONVECTION TO MIGRATE TO THE COAST
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THERE AS WELL...SO WILL HAVE 50 POPS INTERIOR
AND SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT-FRI)...ITS GETTING CLOSER TO INDEPENDENCE
DAY...AND STILL THE MEAN FLOW PATTERN IS PROVIDING LITTLE HELP FOR
EVENING PLANNING.  GFS IS HINTING AT WEAK SE FLOW AFTER DARK WHICH
WOULD TEND TO EASE WHATEVER STORMS ARE ACTIVE BACK TO THE COAST...BUT
ETA SHOWS VIRTUALLY NO FLOW.  LIGHTNING CLIMATOLOGY SUGGEST BEST
EVENING LIGHTNING WOULD STRETCH FROM INTERIOR COASTAL/WEST CENTRAL
COUNTIES STRAIGHT S TO THE LEE COUNTY METRO AREAS...BUT OTHER FACTORS
(SUCH AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING) CAN CHANGE INITIAL STORM GENERATION.
FOR NOW WILL HOLD ONTO 30 PERCENT THROUGH FIREWORKS TIME...AND LET
FUTURE SHIFTS ADJUST.

OTHERWISE...SAME STUFF DIFFERENT DAY(S) RIGHT THROUGH WED...AND
LOOKS LIKE THE LIGHT FLOW MAY HOLD THROUGH THURSDAY AS...NOT ALL
THAT SURPRISING...THE ACTIVE JET HOLDS ACROSS THE MID LATITUDES.  BY
FRIDAY...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE DEEPER E FLOW WILL TAKE OVER BUT WOULD
NOT WRITE IT IN STONE JUST YET.

SO...MORE EARLY AFTERNOON WEST COAST SEA BREEZE INDUCED STORMS
BECOMING BOUNDARY COLLISIONS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.  TEMPS NEAR NORMAL AND PCPN
COVERAGE A HAIR BELOW NORMAL AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...VERY LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT AS LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS
CONTINUE UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME...BUT THE STRONGEST WOULD BE IN THE LATE
EVENINGS AS LOCAL LAND BREEZES SET UP JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVE SLOWLY
WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE SO NO HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 75 90 76 91/ 30 50 30 40
FMY 74 91 74 92/ 30 50 30 50
GIF 74 92 74 93/ 30 50 30 50
SRQ 74 90 74 90/ 30 40 40 40
BKV 71 90 71 91/ 30 50 30 50

&&

SHORT TERM...JILLSON
LONG TERM....BSG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
510 AM EDT FRI JUL 2 2004

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-021415-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
510 AM EDT FRI JUL 2 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE STARTING AROUND MID AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL
FORM AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES INTO OUR AREA BY THE EARLY
EVENING...WITH SOME STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP INTO THE LATE
EVENING. EXPECT THE BEST COVERAGE TODAY IN THE AREA WHERE THE SEA
BREEZES MEET...EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR.

THE STEERING FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERE IS RELATIVELY LIGHT...SO ANY
STORMS THAT FORM WILL NOT MOVE VERY FAST. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH TODAYS STORMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY. THERE WILL BE A RISK OF STRONG STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

RJS