Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, July 2, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1230 PM CDT FRI JUL 2 2004

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

FORECAST DECISIONS TODAY CENTER AROUND TIMING AND LEVEL OF POPS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INDEPENDENCE DAY.

IF YOU BELIEVE THE NGM MODEL, DDCS CWA WILL NOT GET ANY PRECIP
THROUGH SUNDAY.  BUT THE ETA AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST AN OPEN SHORT
WAVE COMING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WEST, SATURDAY
NIGHT.  THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY, NOT DUE TO
UPPER STIRRING FLOW BUT RATHER PRESSURE DISCONTINUITIES.  WILL GO
WITH 30 POPS IN THE NORTHERN CWA SAT NIGHT, WITH 20 POPS JUST SOUTH
OF THESE CHANCE POPS.  WILL NOT PUT POPS IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES FOR NOW, AS HOW FAR SOUTH THIS WAVE AFFECTS IS UP IN
QUESTION AT THE MOMENT.

THINK THE WARM AIR UPSTREAM AT 850 MB WILL BE REALIZED SATURDAY,
WITH LOW TO MID 90S FOR MAX TEMPS.  WITH THE PASSING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE SATURDAY NIGHT, WILL LOWER MAX TEMPS
SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY,  AROUND 90 IN MOST LOCALES.  WILL SHIFT
LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE FAR EASTERN CWA SUNDAY, AND
ALSO PUT A 20 POP IN AROUND EHA AREA FOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER WAVE, A BIT MORE ORGANIZED, WILL BE APPROACHING LATE SUNDAY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

DAYS 3-7...

WILL BE CONFINING THE BETTER PCPN CHANCES NEAR TWO FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL BE IMPACTING OUR CWA IN THE LATER PERIODS. THE
FIRST ONE WHICH BY SUNDAY NIGHT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE ALONG
THE OK/KS BORDER. MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF THIS FRONT AND UPPER LVL
S/W TROF ADVERTISED BY ALL MODELS CROSSING INTO THE CNTL PLAINS SEE
NO REASON WHY NOT TO UP POPS SUNDAY NIGHT. WHAT LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO WATCH IS IF THIS FRONT WILL BE PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH GIVEN
THE EXPECTED PCPN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND  IN
WY/NE WHICH WAS ONE OF PRIMARY REASONS FOR NOT GOING WITH LIKELY.

FOCUS THEN SHIFT TO OUR NEXT S/W TROF MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND ANOTHER FRONT INTO SW KS LATE MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY
TUESDAY. AGAIN LIFT APPEARS MORE FAVORABLE ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT SO
WILL KEEP THE CHC POPS GOING THAT PREVIOUS INSERTED. AFTER THIS WILL
HAVE TO WATCH SE UPSLOPE FLOW. 85H SHOWING SOME WAA DEVELOPING WITH
IMPROVING INSTAB OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS SO HAVE KEPT SMALL
POPS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE SW CWA.

AFTERWARDS OUR COOL SFC HIGH BUILDS SE OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SE FLOW REMAINING OVER CWA. UPPER LVLS
SHOWING NW FLOW SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY EMBEDDED WAVE IN THIS
FLOW. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER AS THIS PATTER SETS UP HAVE PLACED A
BREAK IN THE POPS WED BUT WILL KEEP SMALL POPS GOING IN THE WEST
GIVEN THE FLOW THUR AND FRI.

AS FOR TEMPS KEPT TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE, ESPECIALLY GIVEN EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER TUESDAY BUT DID WARM THEM BACK UP LATE WEEK AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

DDC 64 94 66 90 / 00 00 20 00
GCK 62 94 65 92 / 00 00 20 00
EHA 61 93 65 90 / 00 00 00 20
LBL 63 94 66 91 / 00 00 00 00
HYS 64 91 64 92 / 00 00 30 20
P28 66 91 68 91 / 00 00 20 20
&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
&&

12/18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
500 AM CDT FRI JUL 2 2004

KSZ043-044-061>063-074>078-084>088-031000-
CLARK-FINNEY-FORD-GRANT-GRAY-HAMILTON-HASKELL-KEARNY-LANE-MEADE-
MORTON-SCOTT-SEWARD-STANTON-STEVENS-
500 AM CDT (400 AM MDT) FRI JUL 2 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS
SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA. STAY TUNED TO LATER UPDATES AS THE TIME NEARS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

KSZ030-031-045-046-064>066-079>081-089-090-031000-
BARBER-COMANCHE-EDWARDS-ELLIS-HODGEMAN-KIOWA-NESS-PAWNEE-PRATT-RUSH-
STAFFORD-TREGO-
500 AM CDT FRI JUL 2 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING ALONG AND EAST
OF A WAKEENEY TO COLDWATER LINE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE SEVERE
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS
SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA. STAY TUNED TO LATER UPDATES AS THE TIME NEARS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

LACY