Damaging Winds in Florida, August 12 to 13, 2004

SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

.DISCUSSION...STILL WAITING FOR CHARLEY TO MAKE ITS IMPACT FELT
WHICH WILL GOVERN THE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.  THE WAY IT LOOKS NOW
THE RAIN WILL START OVER THE WESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  SINCE THERE IS A LARGE AREA OF
DRIER AIR NORTH AND EAST OF THE STORM THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTION OF
THE ZONES WILL BE A PLACE WHERE THE RAIN CHANCE CAN BE LOWER THAN
WHAT WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE TEXT.  WE WILL STILL FEEL THE EFFECTS
OF CHARLEY ON SATURDAY IN THE FORM OF SOME FEEDER BAND THROUGH OUR
ZONES. SO WE ARE STILL LIKELY TO HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAIN
ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT OF THE LOCATION.  AT PRESENT HAVE
PUT IT OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES.  BEGINNING NEXT WEEK WE SHOULD HAVE
THE SURFACE RIDGE BACK OVER THE AREA.  MORE IMPORTANT THE UPPER
RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN FORCING CHARLEY WEST SHOULD BE WELL IN PLACE
OVER OUR AREA AND WE SHOULD BE JUST A LITTLE BELOW CLIMATE ON THE
PROBABILITIES. AM DISREGARDING ANY POTENTIAL TROPICAL FEATURES
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...BETWEEN BONNIE AND CHARLEY WE ARE UP TO SMALL CRAFT ON THE
ATLANTIC SIDE. WILL STAY IN THIS SITUATION UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THEN SEE A DECREASE TO EXERCISE CAUTION SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN THROUGH THE THE REST OF THE FORECAST WE SHOULD BE 15
KNOTS OR LESS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EVEN THOUGH WINDS AND DSI WILL REMAIN HIGH HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT THRESHOLD SO NO NEED FOR ANY
ADVISORIES.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 81 90 80 90 / 50 70 50 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 82 90 79 90 / 50 70 50 30
MIAMI           80 90 79 90 / 50 70 50 30
NAPLES          76 90 76 88 / 70 100 70 30
&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HURRICANE WARNING FOR W COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES.
     FLOOD WATCH ALL ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY.
     INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH GLADES AND HENDRY.
     TROPICAL STORM WATCH LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ATLC WATERS.
GM...HURRICANE WARNING FOR GULF WATERS.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
446 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA

FLZ067-068-071>074-130238-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-DADE METROPOLITAN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
PALM BEACH WESTERN-WESTERN BROWARD-WESTERN DADE-
446 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTH
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL
BRING STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS WILL IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY AS
HURRICANE CHARLEY MOVES NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA.

SEE THE HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT AT AFOS PIL MIAHLSMFL, OR WMO
HEADER WTUS82 KMFL, FOR MORE INFORMATION.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND DETAILED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND ON THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT MIAMIWEATHER.INFO. FOR
INFORMATION IN SPANISH, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF
NEEDED.

FLZ069-070-075-130238-
EASTERN COLLIER-MAINLAND MONROE-WESTERN COLLIER-
446 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

...HURRICANE WARNING SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT...

HURRICANE CHARLEY WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE GULF WATERS ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST ON FRIDAY. WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE
OVERNIGHT, WITH HEAVY RAINFALL, INCREASING WINDS, AND MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED WEAK TORNADOES AFTER
MIDNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS, AS CHARLEY NEARS THE
AREA. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS RAINFALL INCREASES.

PREPARATIONS NEED TO BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN ADVANCE OF THIS
HURRICANE. SEE THE HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT AT AFOS PIL MIAHLSMFL,
OR WMO HEADER WTUS82 KMFL, FOR MORE INFORMATION.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND DETAILED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND ON THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT MIAMIWEATHER.INFO. FOR
INFORMATION IN SPANISH, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS CHARLEY MOVES NORTH
ALONG THE GULF COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

FLZ063-066-130238-
GLADES-HENDRY-
446 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT...

HURRICANE CHARLEY WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE GULF WATERS ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST ON FRIDAY. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES AT AROUND NOON
ON FRIDAY. FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK FOR
WEAK TORNADOES IN THE RAINBANDS OF CHARLEY.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND DETAILED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND ON THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT MIAMIWEATHER.INFO. FOR
INFORMATION IN SPANISH, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS CHARLEY MOVES NORTH
ALONG THE GULF COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.