Tropical Storm in Florida, August 12, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1141 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004

.UPDATE...WE UPGRADED INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH TO AN INLAND
TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING FOR OUR INLAND FL COUNTIES. NPW ALREADY
OUT. WE WILL BE POPULATING WIND GRIDS WITH TCM DATA FOR BOTH BONNIE
AND CHARLEY (IF NECESSARY) AND UPDATING ZFP AND/OR CWF AS
APPROPRIATE.

.PREV DISCUSSIONS...
910 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004

ALL EYES ON BONNIE THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES NE TOWARD THE N FL
COAST. CURRENT FORECAST WOULD HAVE THE CENTER VERY CLOSE TO THE
COAST...JUST SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY AT 14Z (900 AM CDT). WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXPECTED INLAND N FL...& SOME SPOTS OF SE AL & SW GA. WILL BE
ISSUING TROPICAL STORM INLAND WIND WARNING LATER TONIGHT AFTER NEXT
FULL BULLETIN...AS WELL AS HURRICANE INLAND WIND WARNING INLAND
PARTS OF N FL. OTHERWISE...EVENING CONVECTION WINDING DOWN OVER THE
CWA. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH HAS WAFFLED AROUND ALL DAY HELPING TO SET
OFF CONVECTION AS WELL AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA.
MANY LOCATIONS HAVE SATURATED GROUND & WITH EXPECTED RAIN FROM
BONNIE...WILL SEE SOME FLOODING ON THURSDAY. WINDS & SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY COME UP WITH BONNIE & CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS OK. WILL
UPDATE AFTER HURRICANE CONFERENCE CALL.

520 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004

BAND OF ACTIVE CONVECTION LINGERS ACROSS NRN MOST GA COUNTIES...
OTHERWISE LULL IN CALM BEFORE THE STORM. LATEST RECON AND
SATELLITE DATA CONFIRM THAT BONNIE NOW FULLY UNDER INFLU OF DIGGING
TROF ALONG TEXAS COAST. PLUS SBTRPCL RIDGE SRN FL LIFTING NWD. THUS
BONNIE HAS MADE SHARP TURN TO NE AND HINTS AT A CENTER. THUS
FORECAST ON TAP TO STILL MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE EAST OF PANAMA
CITY. REFER TO NHC PRODUCTS FOR MORE DETAILS. ZFP/CWF ADJUSTED TO
ACCOUNT FOR NEW WARNINGS/WATCHES AND TWEAKING OF WINDS/GUSTS.

230 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004

CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MOST OF CWFA. ISOLD
TSTMS ACROSS NE MOST SCNTRL GA REPRESENTS LAST REMNANT OF ACTIVE
BAND OF NE MOVING EARLIER MOISTURE.

DISCUSSION...HIGH AMPLITUDE WRN RIDGE/ERN TROF PATTERN ACROSS CONUS.
STRONG SHORT WAVE CENTRAL CANADA AND MID MS VALLEY DIGGING SE
HELPING TO SHARPEN TROUGH. WEAK VORT MOVED EWD THRU LOCAL AREA
EARLIER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. AT SURFACE RIDGE S FL EWD THRU WRN
ATLC AND QUASI-STNRY FRONT FROM MID ATLC-LWR MISS VALLEY. THIS
PLACED LOCAL AREA IN WARM SECTOR OF HIGH DEW POINTS AND DEEP ONSHORE
FLOW/LIFT. NOT SURPRISINGLY PERSISTENT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN TRAINED ACROSS LOCAL AREA FROM SW-NE WITH LAST VESTIGE MOVING
OUT OF GA CWFA. EARLIER 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR GENERATED LOCALIZED
FLOODING PARTS OF FL BIG END. CONVECTION HAS TAPERED OFF AND EXCEPT
RELATIVE SHORT TERM LULL.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CWFA THROUGH
THURSDAY.

ALL EYES NOW TURN TO TS BONNIE. DURING MID AFTERNOON TS BONNIE WAS
LOCATED AROUND 365 SW OF PANAMA CITY. LATEST SATELLITE PIX SHOW THAT
IT BETTER ORGANIZED AND STRONGER WITH APPROACHING FEEDER BANDS
CLEARLY SEEN ON SATELLITE. THUS TS WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH
HOISTED FOR ALA BORDER EWD TO SUWANNEE RIVER. BONNIE FINALLY PASSED
N OF H5 RIDGE LOCATED FROM S FL WWD INTO GULF AND NOW COMING UNDER
INFLU OF SHORT WAVE TROF DIGGING SE ACROSS SRN PLAINS. SHUD INCREASE
IN INTENSITY TONIGHT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR AND AS IT MOVES OVER
WARM GULF EDDY UNTIL IT APPROACHED LANDFALL WHEN SHEAR INCREASES.
THUS BONNIE TO ACCELERATE AND MOVE NE. LATEST SATELLITE PIX SHOW EYE
STARTING TO FORM WITH RECON FLIGHT WILL DETERMINE IF EYE/EYEWALL
FORMING AND UPGRADE TO HURRICANE IS NECESSARY. FOR NOW...FORECAST
MODIFIED TO ACCOUNT FOR STRENGTHENING OF BONNIE. OFFICIAL TRACK NOW
SHOWS STORM MAKING LANDFALL AROUND PANAMA CITY BEACH ABOUT 9 AM CDT
AND MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD TO EXTREME SCNTRL GA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER..LATEST SATELLITE PIX SUGGEST POSSIBLE SHIFT TO RIGHT WHICH
MAY PUSH ONSHORE POINT FURTHER EWD. BECAUSE BONNIE CONTINUES TO BE A
SMALL STORM...WINDS NOT EXPECTED BEYOND 70 NM FROM CENTER BEGINNING
AROUND 3 AM ACROSS FL PANHANDLE. THUS ONLY TROPICAL STORM FORCE
GUSTS TO REACH SE ALA/SW GA. SEE NHC PRODUCTS FOR MORE SPECIFICS.

FORECAST REFLECTS ABOVE WITH HI LIKELY-CAT POPS...WINDS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND HIGH GUSTS DECREASING FROM SW TO NW THROUGH DAY.

REGARDING TS CHARLIE...LATEST DATA SHOWS THAT ALTHO SYSTEM IS
STRENGTHENING...IT TAKES A TRACK SLIGHT MORE TO THE S AND THUS
BECOMES INCREASINGLY LESS OF A THREAT TO OUR CWFA. LATEST TRACK PUTS
IN INLAND BETWEEN CEDAR KEY AND TAMPA. FOR NOW ANY IMPACT WILL ONLY
BE ON INCREASING WINDS OR SEAS...MAINLY OFFSHORE APALACH BAY.

LONG TERM...WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS OUT OF PIX..HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SE INTO CWFA WITH RAPIDLY DRYING OUT OF LOCAL AIR MASS OF NW-SE
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...PER ABOVE DISCUSSION...WILL MAINTAIN  W/E SPLIT WITH
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALL WATERS WITH BRIEF HURRICANE FORCE
GUSTS WRN WATERS. WINDS VEER AND DECREASE NOTICEABLY DURING
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WX...NO SHORT TERM CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TLH 74 86 71 86/60 90 50 50
PFN 77 86 73 87/80 90 40 30
DHN 73 85 68 84/70 80 40 30
ABY 72 85 69 85/50 80 50 30
VLD 74 86 71 84/50 70 50 50
CTY 75 87 73 84/40 70 50 60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THU ALL ZONES.
GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THU ALL ZONES.
FL.. HURRICANE WARNING COASTAL COUNTIES FROM AL/FL BORDER E TO
      SUWANNEE RIVER INCLUDING FLZ 08-12-14-15-18-27-28-34.
     INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING FOR INLAND COUNTIES
      INCLUDING FLZ07-09>11-13-16-17-19-26-29.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THU ALL ZONES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...BLOCK/MCT
CURRENT DISCUSSION...WOOL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
426 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ750-
755-770-775-122026-
BAKER GA-BAY FL-BEN HILL GA-BERRIEN GA-BROOKS GA-CALHOUN GA-
CALHOUN FL-CLAY GA-COASTAL WALTON FL-COFFEE AL-COLQUITT GA-COOK GA-
DALE AL-DECATUR GA-DIXIE FL-DOUGHERTY GA-EARLY GA-FRANKLIN FL-
GADSDEN FL-GENEVA AL-GRADY GA-GULF FL-HENRY AL-HOLMES FL-HOUSTON AL-
INLAND WALTON FL-IRWIN GA-JACKSON FL-JEFFERSON FL-LAFAYETTE FL-
LANIER GA-LEE GA-LEON FL-LIBERTY FL-LOWNDES GA-MADISON FL-MILLER GA-
MITCHELL GA-QUITMAN GA-RANDOLPH GA-SEMINOLE GA-TAYLOR FL-TERRELL GA-
THOMAS GA-TIFT GA-TURNER GA-WAKULLA FL-WASHINGTON FL-WORTH GA-
428 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE...AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA GULF COAST
FROM THE ALABAMA BORDER EAST TO THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER...
...AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NON-COASTAL
SECTIONS OF FLORIDA...
...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ750-
755-770-775-122026-
BAKER GA-BAY FL-BEN HILL GA-BERRIEN GA-BROOKS GA-CALHOUN GA-
CALHOUN FL-CLAY GA-COASTAL WALTON FL-COFFEE AL-COLQUITT GA-COOK GA-
DALE AL-DECATUR GA-DIXIE FL-DOUGHERTY GA-EARLY GA-FRANKLIN FL-
GADSDEN FL-GENEVA AL-GRADY GA-GULF FL-HENRY AL-HOLMES FL-HOUSTON AL-
INLAND WALTON FL-IRWIN GA-JACKSON FL-JEFFERSON FL-LAFAYETTE FL-
LANIER GA-LEE GA-LEON FL-LIBERTY FL-LOWNDES GA-MADISON FL-MILLER GA-
MITCHELL GA-QUITMAN GA-RANDOLPH GA-SEMINOLE GA-TAYLOR FL-TERRELL GA-
THOMAS GA-TIFT GA-TURNER GA-WAKULLA FL-WASHINGTON FL-WORTH GA-
428 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE...AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A RELATIVE LULL IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM BONNIE. BASED ON THE
CURRENT TRACK OF BONNIE...AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL
COULD FALL ON PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IN THE PANHANDLE AND POSSIBLY THE BIG BEND. IN
ADDITION...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS FROM BONNIE WILL
BEGIN TO REACH THE GULF COASTAL WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THE
PANHANDLE COAST DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS COULD REACH 50 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 75 KNOTS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 12 TO 15 FEET...IF NOT HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN
PORT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR PANAMA CITY
THURSDAY MORNING. BEST ESTIMATES HAVE LANDFALL OCCURRING 9 AM
CDT. AS THEY STORM MOVES INLAND...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE.
HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR
INLAND AS SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. THE CENTER SHOULD CROSS INTO SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA AROUND 1 PM EDT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES WILL BE COMMON FROM THE PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. WINDS AND RAINS WILL DROP
SHARPLY THURSDAY EVENING AS BONNIE ACCELERATES NORTHEAST. DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.

THE LATEST ADVISORY ON HURRICANE CHARLEY HAS THE SYSTEM MAKING
LANDFALL DOWN THE COAST IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THUS...OUR FORECAST
AREA WOULD BE ON THE WEAK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH MINIMAL IMPACT.
HOWEVER...JUST A SLIGHT WEST OR NORTH DEVIATION IN THE TRACK WOULD
BRING THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE APALACHEE BAY OVER THE
WEEKEND. A HURRICANE IN THE APALACHEE BAY WOULD CAUSE CONSIDERABLE
STORM SURGE AND WIND DAMAGE. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE CHARLEY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
WITH THE APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM...SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGER
ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

WIND...WAVE...AND TIDAL CONDITIONS SUPPORT DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS BY
TONIGHT. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE ENTERING THE
WATER.

ALWAYS HEED THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL AND LOCAL OFFICIALS. BE
ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS NEAR PIERS...JETTIES...AND UNGUARDED BEACHES. A
RIP CURRENT IS A STRONG NARROW CURRENT OF WATER FLOWING FROM THE
BEACH THROUGH THE SURF ZONE. IT CAN RAPIDLY CARRY A SWIMMER INTO
DEEPER WATER. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...WADE SIDEWAYS
PARALLEL TO THE BEACH UNTIL YOU ARE OUT OF ITS PULL.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE VIA OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TLH/ OR
LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS.

BLOCK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
820 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 ESE CUTHBERT          31.74N 84.71W
08/11/2004                   RANDOLPH           GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TWO TO THREE FEET OF WATER COVERING LOWER SHELLMAN ROAD
            BY THE PACHITLA CREEK.

&&