Dense Fog and Winter Weather in Delaware, December 19, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
430 PM EST SAT DEC 18 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
AT 430 PM THERE WAS SOME STRATOCUMULUS OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.  PATCHES OF CLOUDS SHOULD
PASS OVER OUR REGION TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY THE NORTH AND WEST, SO
WELL GO WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE RATHER TRANQUIL AT THE START.  CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
OVER OUR REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THE MORNING.  THE ARCTIC FRONT
IS SLATED TO ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE ARCTIC FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT.  AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH SUCH FRONTS THE PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT.  WELL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY, NEW JERSEY.  IT SHOULD
BE WARM ENOUGH AT THE ONSET FOR THE PRECIP TO START AS A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE LEHIGH VALLEY, AND A CHANCE OF RAIN FROM PHL
SOUTH AND EAST.

FOR SUNDAY EVENING WELL SIMPLY CALL IT A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
EVERYWHERE.  SINCE WERE STILL CARRYING CHANCE POPS WE DIDNT
MENTION ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ZONE FORECASTS.  HOWEVER, WE DID
MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN OUR SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT.

THE COASTAL LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE
ARCTIC AIR REACHING THE WARMER OCEAN WATER WILL DO SO AT OUR
LATITUDE.  AS A RESULT, BY THE TIME IT GETS GOING IT SHOULD BE TOO
LATE FOR IT TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.

WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM 5 TO 20 DEGREES DURING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND WIND SPEEDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH OUR LOWEST
WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD BE JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA.  AS A
RESULT, WELL CONTINUE TO COVER THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE ARCTIC AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO LINGER.  WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER OUR REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT AND IT MIGHT EVEN
BRING A SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW TO OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES AT
THAT TIME.

WEVE ADJUSTED TEMPS UPWARD FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD BASED ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE.

WITH THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE CENTER
OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WERE LOOKING AT AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THE
COMING WEEKEND.  THE NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR SHOULD TAKE ITS TIME IN
GETTING HERE.  AS A RESULT, WERE LIKELY GOING TO SEE SOME RAIN
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH AN CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP AS WE GET INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
BIG DISCREPANCIES WITH THE 12Z MOS SETS IN TERMS OF CEILINGS FOR
TONIGHT.  THE ETA WANTS TO TAKE PORTIONS OF THE CWA DOWN TO LIFR DUE
TO CLOUDS, WHILE THE GFS REMAINS ABOVE 6K FT.  BOTH DO HINT AT
POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS AS WINDS GO LIGHT.  WITHOUT A STRONG AND
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, WE ARE NOT QUITE SURE
WHERE THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE THE ETA SUDDENLY PAINTS IN COMING FROM.
CANT RULE OUT A 5SM BR BY DAYBREAK, BUT CEILINGS ALMOST DOWN TO THE
GROUND LOOK UNREASONABLE.  WE HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND
KEPT CONDITIONS VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING
AND BE CENTERED OFF OF MAINE BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY.  A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS AREA WATERS LATE ON SUNDAY.  AS
THE FRONT SETTLES OFF THE COAST A SECOND AND STRONGER LOW WILL
DEVELOP ALONG IT OFF OF DELMARVA AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD.  HIGHER
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND
FURTHER BUILD INTO TUESDAY.

CONCERNING THE COLD FRONT AND STRONG COASTAL LOW, BUFKIT WINDS HAVE
SUBSIDED SOME(TO LEVELS BLO GALES).  EVEN THOUGH THIS IS THE CASE,
WE WILL PRETTY MUCH STAY THE COARSE AND CONTINUE WITH POSSIBLE GALES
AT LEAST FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND LOWER BAY.  THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS QUITE STRONG AND WELL HAVE NO PROBLEM GOING ADIABATIC.  FREEZING
SPRAY IS STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MD...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION/MARINE...KRUZDLO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
531 AM EST SAT DEC 18 2004

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-191200-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-BERKS PA-BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ-
CAPE MAY NJ-CARBON PA-CAROLINE MD-CECIL MD-CHESTER PA-
COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE PA-
DELAWARE BEACHES DE-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-
INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT MD-KENT DE-LEHIGH PA-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-
MONROE PA-MONTGOMERY PA-MORRIS NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-NORTHAMPTON PA-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-QUEEN ANNES MD-
SALEM NJ-SOMERSET NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-SUSSEX NJ-TALBOT MD-
WARREN NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALLENTOWN...ATLANTIC CITY...BETHLEHEM...
CAMDEN...DOVER...NEW BRUNSWICK...NEWARK...PERTH AMBOY...
PHILADELPHIA...READING...TRENTON...VINELAND AND WILMINGTON
531 AM EST SAT DEC 18 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA, DELAWARE, THE NORTHERN MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND NEW
JERSEY, EXCLUDING THE FIVE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ON SUNDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.
AT THE TIME IT APPEARS THAT ITS MAIN EFFECTS WILL OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THOSE EFFECTS WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES, VERY
LOW WIND CHILLS AND WINDS THAT WILL RISE TO GALE FORCE ALONG THE
COAST AND OPEN WATERS AND THAT WILL PEAK AT 25 TO 35 MPH INLAND.
IT PRESENTLY APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
LIGHT. ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST, WHICH ARE POSSIBLE, LIKELY WOULD
FIRST OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

MPD