Wildfire, San Juan River Basin
- When
- May 22, 3:00 PM MST to May 24, 4:00 PM MST
- Where
- San Juan River Basin forecast zone
- Reported by
- GOVT OFFICIAL
- Coordinates
- 37.194, -107.048 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Wildfire in Colorado, May 22 to 24, 2004
Lightning ignited the Montezuma Mesa Fire about 15 miles south of Pagosa Springs which burned in ponderosa pine and oak brush. The fire burned 156 acres with an estimated cost of 85,000 dollars to fight the fire.
Where it happened
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
- Tornadoes
- Tropical storms and surge
- Floods
- Wind
- Hail
- Winter weather
- Heat and drought
- Cold
- Fire, smoke and dust
- Marine and coastal
- Other
The toll
- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 1
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
What happened
The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
Lightning ignited the Montezuma Mesa Fire about 15 miles south of Pagosa Springs which burned in ponderosa pine and oak brush. The fire burned 156 acres with an estimated cost of 85,000 dollars to fight the fire.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 22, 2:01 PM MST, 59 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 22, 2:01 PM MST, 59 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
301 PM MDT SAT MAY 22 2004
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WASHINGTON STATE. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM ABOUT
RABBIT EARS PASS ALONG THE ROAN-TAVAPUTS PLATEAU INTO SOUTHERN UTAH.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS BEEN FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT AIDED BY SOME WEAK DYNAMICS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND UPPER TROUGH PROGRESS EAST.
LOW LEVELS STILL LACK MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SO POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CATEGORY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
NORTH OF I-70. AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAIL
OFF THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AND NEGATIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION SETS IN BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. A COLD FRONT AND
UPPER JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE OVER WASHINGTON WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN UTAH TONIGHT AND KEEP THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY
AFTERNOON WINDS WITH A DEEPLY MIXED DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW. WEAK WARM
ADVECTION AND LESS CLOUDS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP SEVERAL DEGREES
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED AT OR BELOW 15% ACROSS THE
SOUTH. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SOUTHERN FIRE ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING LOOKS ON TRACK. LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY
WITH A SURFACE FRONT PROGGED NEAR THE WYOMING/COLORADO BORDER. LOW
LEVELS STILL DRY THOUGH WITH PRIMARILY HIGH BASED CONVECTION AND
LITTLE RAINFALL. SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE FRONT TO DRIFT SOUTH. COOLER AIR SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF THE ROAN-TAVAPUTS PLATEAU. LINDQUIST
LONG-TERM DISCUSSION (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
(MONDAY AND TUESDAY)...
110-120 KT SUBTROPICAL JET WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS STATES. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT
BASIN, IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING WEST COAST TROF. THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT, REDUCING THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY REBOUND AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WEEKEND
COLD POOL ALOFT.
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH FORECAST DETAILS. A STRONG AND DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MOISTURE AS THE WEST COAST TROF
MOVES EASTWARD. HOWEVER, TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. THE GFS DEVELOPS A
CLOSED LOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROF AND EJECTS THE SYSTEM INTO
EASTERN COLORADO BY FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE CANADIAN, NOGAPS, AND
ECMWF KEEP THE TROF AS AN OPEN WAVE AND ALL HAVE IT OVER SOUTHERN
NEVADA BY FRIDAY 00Z (THE SAME POSITION THE GFS HAS IT ON THURSDAY
00Z). IT LOOKS AS IF THE BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING CONVECTION WILL BE
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1200 TO 2000 MDT SUNDAY BELOW
8500 FEET FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 205 AND 207.
.UT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1200 TO 2000 MDT SUNDAY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 447...448...AND 449.
TAL/BAHazardous weather outlook, May 22, 6:59 AM MST, 8 hours 1 minute before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 759 AM MDT SAT MAY 22 2004 COZ001>008-010-013-UTZ023>025-027-231200- ARCHES/GRAND FLAT-CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN- CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN-DEBEQUE TO SILT CORRIDOR- EASTERN UINTA BASIN-EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS- ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS-FLAT TOPS- GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-GRAND VALLEY- LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-TAVAPUTS PLATEAU- UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN- 759 AM MDT SAT MAY 22 2004 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND LITTLE RAINFALL TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. WIDESPREAD BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT. COZ009-011-012-014-017>023-UTZ022-028-029-231200- ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES- CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN- FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS- LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS- PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER-SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN- SOUTHEAST UTAH-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS- UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY- WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS- 759 AM MDT SAT MAY 22 2004 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO (BELOW 8500 FEET) ON SUNDAY FROM 1200 PM MDT UNTIL 800 PM MDT... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN... CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL COMBINE TO CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH WILL OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LESS THAN 15 PERCENT. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE RAPID GROWTH OF WILDFIRES. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON SUNDAY...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT. MPM
The radar
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
Event by event
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
What these are
- Wildfire
- A fire burning in wildland vegetation, with its acreage and damage where known.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
The same day elsewhere
- Tornadoes in Nebraska, May 22, 2004
- Tornadoes and Hail in Nebraska, May 22, 2004
- Tornadoes and Flash Flooding in Iowa, May 22 to 23, 2004
- Flooding in Iowa, May 22 to 31, 2004
- Tornadoes and Hail in Nebraska, May 22, 2004
- Tornadoes in Kansas, May 22, 2004
- Hail in Nebraska, May 22, 2004
- Flash Flooding and Damaging Wind in Pennsylvania, May 22, 2004
- Flash Flooding and Hail in Wisconsin, May 22 to 23, 2004
- Flooding in Iowa, May 22 to 26, 2004
- Flood in Pennsylvania, May 22 to 23, 2004
- Flash Flooding in Wisconsin, May 22 to 23, 2004
More
Every storm in Colorado in 2004Every state in 2004This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, May 2004
Sources
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5403432.