Four ice climbers were rappelling in a popular climbing area at about 10,200 feet elevation about 9 miles north of Silverton, Colorado. An avalanche swept one of the climbers about 200 feet down the incline before he came to rest in a gully.
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The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
Four ice climbers were rappelling in a popular climbing area at about 10,200 feet elevation about 9 miles north of Silverton, Colorado. An avalanche swept one of the climbers about 200 feet down the incline before he came to rest in a gully. He suffered a fractured leg, but was able to hop on one leg out of the gully before 2 more avalanches occurred and buried his backpack in the gully.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 21, 3:12 PM MST, 2 hours 33 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
312 PM MST SAT FEB 21 2004
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN AND
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE RUC ANALYSIS INDICATING A CLOSED
CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA. A DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IS
IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO AND WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTH.
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN LOWER VALLEYS CONTINUES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION IS MUCH MORE SCATTERED ACROSS
THE NORTH. OROGRAPHIC FORCING THE PRIMARY LIFTING MECHANISM FOR
THE MOUNTAINS WITH WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AND DIFLUENCE
ALOFT PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT. SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY ABOVE
7000 TO 7500 FEET PER METARS AND RAWS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIPITATION HAS
DROPPED SNOW LEVELS BELOW 6000 FEET ACROSS SOME OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEYS. SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST
AND WILL PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF
SOUTHWEST COLORADO THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME QUICK
LOCALIZED 1 TO 2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY AREAS POSSIBLE.
LITTLE TO NO DYNAMIC SUPPORT PROGGED OVER THE AREA IN THE SHORT
TERM. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS MAINTAIN THE DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACROSS SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS. OROGRAPHIC SNOW MODEL GENERATES 4-6 INCHES OVERNIGHT FOR
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE OVERALL CONDITIONS, THESE AMOUNTS MATCH UP PRETTY GOOD WITH WHAT
HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE TODAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW PROGGED TO WEAKEN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND BACK MORE TO THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD DECREASE SNOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SLOPES SO WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS UNTIL NOON SUNDAY. FLOW BACKS MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL FURTHER DECREASE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.
MOIST AIRMASS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH TONIGHT
WITH NEAR PERSISTENCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. COOLER SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A LITTLE DRIER CONDITIONS. TAL
.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...STILL GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE SO HAVE TRIED TO REFINE TIMING A BIT. THE SOUTHERN
CWA IS FAVORED FOR PRECIPITATION IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN.
MONDAY...SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SPLITTING WEST-COAST TROF
PROGRESSES...PRODUCING DIFLUENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. 700MB LOW
IS OVER SW UTAH PRODUCING UNFAVORABLE EAST FLOW BUT SOME
CONVERGENCE. SO IN SPITE OF POOR OROGRAPHICS...DYNAMICAL LIFT
SUPPORTS A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP SOUTH. SNOW LEVEL REMAINS AROUND
7000 FEET. PRECIP CHANCES ARE MUCH LOWER NORTH.
TUESDAY...UPPER LOW PASSES THRU SOUTHERN NM LEAVING LIGHT FLOW AND
LITTLE DYNAMICS FOR ISOLATED POPS EXCEPT SCATTERED IN THE SAN JUAN
MTNS.
WEDNESDAY...DIRTY SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
ALEUTIAN LOW DIGGING ALONG THE WEST COAST.
THURSDAY...WARM ADVECTION SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED IN THE GFS TO
BEGIN PRECIP AGAIN. THIS LOOKS TOO EARLY SO WILL LOWER POPS TO
ISOLATED...SLIGHTLY BETTER IN THE SOUTHERN MTNS.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTIES...SO HAVE KEPT MTN POPS
SCATTERED. THIS TROF PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO BEHAVE SIMILAR TO
THE CURRENT STORM. SPLITTING FLOW WILL FAVOR THE SOUTH. RAMEY
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.CO...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH 1200 PM SUNDAY FOR ZONE 19.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THROUGH 1200 PM SUNDAY FOR ZONES
9-12-17-18.
.UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 1200 PM SUNDAY FOR ZONE 28.
&&
TAL/JOEHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 514 AM MST SAT FEB 21 2004 CORRECTED TYPO COZ011-014-017>023-UTZ022-028-029-221245- ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES- CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN- FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS- NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER- SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-SOUTHEAST UTAH-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS- UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY- 514 AM MST SAT FEB 21 2004 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN UTAH AND SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO IN PERSISTENT MOIST AND UNSETTLED FLOW...WITH RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND CAUSING HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR COAL BANK...MOLAS...AND RED MOUNTAIN PASSES. REFER TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... SNOW WILL DECREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD REDEVELOP FOR THE ABAJO...LA SAL...AND WESTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN PERSIST WITH THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW ON THURSDAY AS AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PREVAILS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT...BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOWFALL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND JUNCTION. COZ001>010-012-013-UTZ023>025-027-221245- ARCHES/GRAND FLAT-CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN- CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN-DEBEQUE TO SILT CORRIDOR- EASTERN UINTA BASIN-EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS- ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS-FLAT TOPS- GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS- GRAND VALLEY-LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS- TAVAPUTS PLATEAU-UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN- WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS- 514 AM MST SAT FEB 21 2004 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEASTERN UTAH AND NORTHWESTERN COLORADO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN MOIST AND UNSETTLED FLOW...WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR WEST OF GLENWOOD SPRINGS. SNOW WILL BECOME LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT ON MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK... MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AS AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PREVAILS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT...BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOWFALL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND JUNCTION. JAD
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 avalanche. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2004Every state in 2004This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, February 2004
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5389300.